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When periods of exuberance come to a close, ideas that once seemed to make a lot of sense no longer do. So it is in the European car industry. Slowing growth of electric vehicle sales has caused a series of corporate U-turns. While sharp swerves are never fun, the change in direction is sensible.
當繁榮期結束時，那些曾經看起來很合理的想法就不再合理了。歐洲汽車業也是如此。電動汽車銷售成長的放緩導致了一系列企業180度大轉彎。雖然急轉彎從來都不是一件有趣的事，但改變方向是明智的。
A decision by Volvo Cars on Thursday to cut loose its premium EV brand Polestar is the latest example of a strategic about-turn. Earlier this week, Renault axed plans to float its EV unit Ampere. A mooted initial public offering of Volkswagen’s battery unit, meanwhile, also looks some way off.
沃爾沃汽車週四決定砍掉其高階電動汽車品牌極星(Polestar)，就是戰略轉向的最新例證。本週早些時候，雷諾取消了電動汽車部門Ampere的上市計劃。與此同時，福斯汽車醞釀中的電池部門首次公開發行看起來也還有待時日。
The wheels have not come off the EV market entirely. Sales growth in Europe is expected to come in at about 5 per cent in 2024 — a sharp slowdown from 2023’s 14 per cent growth, but hardly a crash. The market had simply overestimated the pace of change.
電動汽車市場還未徹底失敗。2024年，歐洲的銷售成長率預計約爲5%，與2023年14% 的成長率相比大幅放緩，但並不能算崩潰。市場只是高估了變化的速度。
EU carmakers, traditionally plagued with vast conglomerate discounts, aimed to attract sky high valuations for their EV arms. The hope was to achieve those enjoyed by Tesla, which trades at more than 58 times forward earnings, and Vietnam’s VinFast. Now that the market’s enthusiasm has waned — shares in VinFast are down 85 per cent over the past six months — “unlocking value” through corporate action looks less attractive.
歐盟的汽車製造商向來受到龐大集團折價的困擾，它們的目標是爲其電動汽車部門吸引天價估值，希望能達到特斯拉和越南VinFast曾享受過的估值，前者遠期市盈率超過58倍。現在，市場的熱情已經消退，VinFast的股價在過去六個月裏下跌了85%，透過企業行動「釋放價值」看起來吸引力不大。
The strategic rationale for EV listings was always tenuous. Polestar, with sizeable investment needs and operationally reliant on Volvo and its Chinese parent Geely, was not an obvious candidate for a standalone equity story when it listed in 2022. Worse, Volvo retained 48 per cent. With the Swedish carmaker facing big EV-related capex needs of its own, a spin-off that hands Polestar to its ultimate shareholder Geely looks like a better plan. Volvo’s stock rose by about a quarter on Thursday.
電動汽車上市的戰略理由一直都很薄弱。極星有著巨大的投資需求，在運營上又依賴沃爾沃及其中國母公司吉利，在2022年上市時，並不能算是個獨立上市的顯著樣本。更糟糕的是，沃爾沃保留了48%的股份。由於這家瑞典汽車製造商自身也面臨著與電動汽車相關的巨大資本支出需求，分拆極星交給其最終股東吉利似乎是一個更好的方案。沃爾沃的股票週四上漲了約四分之一。
At Renault, too, shareholders welcomed the decision to keep Ampere within the fold. Lex has argued that EVs will be a key pillar of the group’s value creation in future. But given Renault does not need capital to fund its transition, it is right to hold on to Ampere for the time being.
在雷諾，股東們也對將Ampere保留在集團內部的決定表示歡迎。Lex認爲，電動汽車將成爲該集團未來價值創造的關鍵支柱。但考慮到雷諾不需要資金來支援其轉型，暫時保留Ampere是正確的。
The slowing pace of EV adoption is good news for traditional European automakers, which have been slow to transition. Stellantis, which has taken a particularly cautious approach, has outperformed Tesla in the past 12 months. If the EV revolution takes longer to materialise legacy automakers should have more time to align themselves with their EV-focused peers.
電動汽車普及速度放緩，對轉型緩慢的傳統歐洲汽車製造商來說是個好訊息。Stellantis採取了特別謹慎的態度，在過去12個月中的表現超過了特斯拉。如果電動車革命需要更長的時間才能實現，那麼傳統汽車製造商應該有更多的時間與電動汽車同行保持一致。