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Narendra Modi invoked “reform” more than two dozen times in his independence day speech at Delhi’s Red Fort earlier this month. But for all the pledges, the Modi Indians heard was not the reformer they once knew.
本月早些時候，納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)在德里紅堡(Red Fort)舉行的獨立日演講中，20多次提到「改革」。但儘管莫迪做出了種種承諾，印度人聽到的已不是他們曾經認識的改革者。
The Indian leader typically deploys the address to outline his grand visions for the world’s most populous country. Last year he vowed to make India a developed economy by 2047. This year’s speech, with ample references to Viksit Bharat (“Developed India”) was a record 98 minutes long.
這位印度領導人通常會在演講中概述他對這個世界上人口最多國家的宏偉願景。去年，他誓言到2047年使印度成爲發達經濟體。今年的講話大量提到了「發達印度」(Viksit Bharat)，時長達到創紀錄的98分鐘。
But Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party lost its majority in June for the first time in a decade and is now having to consult allies, and sometimes retreat, on legislation. Recently it has made U-turns on bills that in the past it would have confidently pushed through parliament.
但莫迪的印度人民黨(Bharatiya Janata party)在6月份失去了多數席位，這是10年來的第一次，現在不得不在立法上與盟友協商，有時還會讓步。最近，它在一些法案上做出了180度大轉彎，而在過去，它會自信地推動這些法案在議會獲得透過。
So while he declares a commitment to “major reforms”, analysts say, Modi will have to work harder than before to prevail against a reinvigorated opposition led by Rahul Gandhi. His premiership, in its third term, is a diminished one.
因此，分析人士認爲，儘管莫迪宣佈將致力於「重大改革」，但要想在拉胡爾•甘地領導的重新崛起的反對黨面前取得勝利，他必須付出比以往更多的努力。他的總理職位在第三個任期被削弱了。
More ominously perhaps for the powerful and popular prime minister, some leaders of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the Hindu nationalist mass movement behind the BJP, made remarks that Indians interpreted as expressing impatience with Modi since the general election result was announced on June 4.
對於這位強大而受歡迎的總理來說，也許更不祥的是，印度人民黨背後的印度民族主義羣衆運動，「國民志願服務團」(Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh)的一些領導人發表了一些言論，印度人認爲這些言論表達了自6月4日大選結果公佈以來對莫迪的不耐煩。
“He had very big plans and the loss of 60 seats in parliament has put a lot of that on hold,” says Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Eurasia Group’s south Asia practice head. “He has to contend with partners, with the RSS, and just generally an opposition that is more energised.”
歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)南亞業務主管普拉米特•帕爾•喬杜裏(Pramit Pal Chaudhuri)表示：「他有非常宏偉的計劃，但失去議會60個席位讓很多計劃擱淺。他必須與合作伙伴、國民志願服務團以及總體上更有活力的反對派競爭。」
Modi’s leftwing critics are delighted to see a leader they describe as an authoritarian strongman weakened.
莫迪的左翼批評者很高興看到這位他們稱之爲威權強人的領導人被削弱。
Business leaders and analysts, meanwhile, are puzzling over what the changed electoral arithmetic will mean for a pro-big business leader who had an ambitious third-term agenda for the world’s fifth-biggest economy.
與此同時，商界領袖和分析人士困惑的是，選舉結果的改變對這位親大企業的領導人意味著什麼，他曾爲這個世界第五大經濟體制定了雄心勃勃的第三個任期議程。
In the run-up to the election, Modi instructed his ministries to come up with 100-day action plans to push through the BJP’s legislative and administrative programme in its first three months. These included proposals to create “super-ministries” for areas such as technology, with the aim of streamlining the government’s work.
大選前夕，莫迪指示各部委制定百日行動計劃，以便在頭三個月內推動人民黨的立法和行政計劃。其中包括爲技術等領域設立「超級部委」，目的是精簡政府工作。
Officials no longer speak about a 100-day agenda. And following the BJP’s shock loss of its majority, he was compelled to dole out some government posts to junior coalition partners, making the plan for mega-ministries unworkable.
官員們不再談論百日議程。在印度人民黨令人震驚地失去多數席位後，他不得不將一些政府職位分配給聯盟中的小夥伴，這使得設立超級部委的計劃無法實施。
The Modi government recently sent back for further revision a broadcasting bill that would have brought YouTubers and other content creators under tighter regulatory control, following a backlash from civil society groups and questions from business.
莫迪政府最近將一項廣播法案發回進一步修訂，該法案本應將YouTube博主和其他內容創作者置於更嚴格的監管之下，但卻遭到了民間團體的反彈和商界的質疑。
After an outcry from middle-class Indians, his government also scrapped plans for an overhaul of the long-term capital gains tax outlined in last month’s budget. A scheme to allow “lateral” entry to the civil service for non-bureaucrats was sunk by the Gandhi-led opposition, who questioned why it did not include “reservations” for lower-caste Indians. The plan was even criticised by some Modi allies.
在印度中產階級的強烈抗議下，他的政府還取消了上月預算中提出的對長期資本利得稅進行全面改革的計劃。一項允許非官僚人員「橫向」進入公務員制度的計劃被甘地領導的反對派否決，他們質疑爲什麼不包括爲低種姓印度人的「保留職位」。該計劃甚至遭到了莫迪的一些盟友的批評。
Both measures arguably would have been good for India’s finances and the quality of its governance, with lateral entry allowing more private sector technocrats to become involved in public administration.
可以說，這兩項措施都有利於印度的財政和治理質量，橫向進入允許更多民營部門的技術專家參與公共管理。
The business community has been hoping for forward movement on policies such as privatisation, land and labour market reform, and an overhaul of production-linked incentives — the multibillion-dollar subsidies India uses to lure investors in industries such as mobile phones and microchips.
商界一直希望在私有化、土地和勞動力市場改革等政策方面取得進展，並全面改革與生產掛鉤的激勵措施——印度用數十億美元的補貼來吸引手機和微晶片等行業的投資者。
Analysts say that the Modi government’s forward momentum will depend in large part on the outcome of upcoming state elections — the biggest being in Maharashtra, one of India’s wealthiest and biggest states, expected in November.
分析人士認爲，莫迪政府的前進勢頭將在很大程度上取決於即將舉行的各邦選舉的結果，其中最大的選舉將於11月在印度最富裕和最大的邦之一馬哈拉施特拉邦舉行。
Even sooner, an upcoming by-election for 12 seats in the Rajya Sabha or upper house, scheduled for September 3, could provide either a small lift or loss to the BJP in the 245-seat upper house.
在此之前，即將於9月3日舉行的聯邦院(Rajya Sabha)12個席位的補選，可能會讓人民黨在245個席位的上院中獲得小幅提升或損失。
Seasoned political observers point out that a weaker Modi governing in a coalition is no great matter. It simply makes him a more typical Indian leader.
經驗豐富的政治觀察人士指出，莫迪在聯合政府中被削弱並不是什麼大事。這只是讓他成爲一個更典型的印度領導人。
P.V. Narasimha Rao, the Indian National Congress party prime minister elected in 1991, credited with India’s “big bang” economic reforms, presided over a minority government. Even Modi, when the BJP enjoyed a majority, was unable to have his way on ambitious reforms to the crucial farming sector.
1991年當選的印度國民大會黨總理P.V.納拉辛哈•拉奧(P.V. Narasimha Rao)領導了一個少數黨政府，他被譽爲印度「大爆炸」經濟改革的功人。即使是莫迪，當人民黨獲得多數席位時，也無法對關鍵的農業部門進行雄心勃勃的改革。
“As far as economic policy is concerned, it doesn’t matter which government is in power,” says Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist with GlobalData.TSLombard. “India with its very vibrant democracy and the multiple stakeholders involved means that the pace of reforms will always be very incremental.”
GlobalData.TSLombard首席印度經濟學家Shumita Deveshwar表示：「就經濟政策而言，哪屆政府執政並不重要。印度擁有非常活躍的民主制度，而且涉及多個利益相關者，這意味著改革的步伐將永遠是非常漸進的。」