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The writer is a senior fellow of the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe and professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London
本文作者是智庫UK in a Changing Europe高級研究員、倫敦國王學院(King』s College London)經濟學和公共政策教授
Depending on which of the main parties’ manifestos you read, immigration to the UK is either too high or much too high and the next government will cut it. Unlike many other manifesto promises, this one will almost certainly be kept. Visa applications for work and study are down 30 per cent this year already, while emigration is rising. Applications for work visas in the health and care sector have fallen by an astonishing 75 per cent.
取決於您閱讀的是哪個主要政黨的宣言，英國的移民要麼太多，要麼多到爆炸，下屆政府將削減移民。與許多其他宣言不同的是，這一承諾幾乎肯定會兌現。今年的工作和學習簽證申請量已經下降了30%，而移民數量卻在上升。醫療保健行業的工作簽證申請量更是下降了75%。
Good news for a Labour government? Only in a very narrow sense. The impact of the pandemic and its aftermath on the UK’s labour force, in particular the rise in the number of people out of work because of sickness and disability, has been well publicised. Less obvious has been the extent to which this has been offset by migration, with recent arrivals both much younger and more likely to work than the resident population. There are well over a million more people born outside the EU working in the UK than before the pandemic.
工黨政府的好訊息？這只是狹義上的好訊息。大流行病及其後果對英國勞動力的影響，尤其是因疾病和殘疾而失業的人數增加，已廣爲人知。但沒那麼明顯的是，移民在多大程度上抵消了這一影響，新移民比常住人口更年輕，也更有可能工作。與大流行病發生之前相比，在英國工作的歐盟以外出生的人增加了100多萬。
A sharp fall in migration will therefore be a drag on both growth and the public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that a “low migration” scenario would push up the deficit by £13bn at the end of the next parliament, even after taking account of the reduced need for spending on public services. That’s twice as much as Labour’s modest tax increases would raise. And it does not take into account the implications for the NHS and care sector workforce.
因此，移民人數的急劇下降將拖累經濟成長和公共財政。據預算責任辦公室估計，即使考慮到公共服務支出需求的減少，在「低移民」的情況下，下屆議會結束時的赤字也將增加130億英鎊。這相當於工黨適度增稅所能增加的赤字的兩倍。這還沒有考慮到對英國國家醫療服務體系和護理部門勞動力的影響。
But leaving aside narrow fiscal arithmetic, the bigger risk for Labour is a political and economic doom loop. Tighter migration policy makes it harder to finance and staff public services. There is convincing evidence that when centrist governments impose austerity in response to such constraints, it in turn drives support for populist and far-right parties, which blame the impacts of austerity on both immigrants and the “elites” in power.
但拋開狹隘的財政計算不談，工黨面臨的更大風險是政治和經濟上的厄運循環。收緊移民政策使得公共服務的資金和人員配備更加困難。有令人信服的證據表明，當中間派政府爲應對這種限制而實施緊縮政策時，反過來又會推動民粹主義和極右翼政黨獲得支援，這些政黨將緊縮政策的影響歸咎於移民和當權的「精英」。
Meanwhile, restrictions on legal migration can also lead to an increase in the demand for migrants without authorisation to work. Visible increases in “uncontrolled” migration further undermine the government’s credibility on migration issues.
同時，對合法移民的限制也會導致對無工作許可移民的需求增加。明顯增加的「失控」移民進一步削弱了政府在移民問題上的公信力。
We’ve seen versions of this across continental Europe for a decade, where neither marginalising the populist right nor co-opting them or their policies have so far been successful for mainstream political parties. The vacillation and appeasement demonstrated by much of the current Conservative party leadership towards Nigel Farage and Reform UK doesn’t give much confidence that we will do better.
十年來，我們在整個歐洲大陸都看到了這樣的情況，無論是排擠民粹主義右翼，還是收編他們或他們的政策，主流政黨迄今爲止都沒有取得成功。保守黨現任領導層對奈傑爾•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)和「改革英國」(Reform UK)所表現出的動搖和綏靖並不能讓人相信我們會做得更好。
So the challenge for mainstream politicians, and indeed economists, is to break the doom loop. That means not ignoring the immigration issue nor offering watered-down versions of populist “solutions”. There is a window of opportunity here. In the past decade, the UK public’s attitudes to migration and especially its economic impacts has become more positive. The idea that the vast majority of the British public is hostile to immigration and that there is nothing that can be done to change that is false.
因此，主流政治家乃至經濟學家面臨的挑戰是打破厄運循環。這意味著既不能忽視移民問題，也不能提供淡化民粹主義的「解決方案」。這裏有一個機會之窗。在過去十年中，英國公衆對移民的態度，尤其是對其經濟影響的態度變得更加積極。那種認爲絕大多數英國公衆敵視移民，而且沒有任何辦法可以改變這種狀況的想法是錯誤的。
Meanwhile, Labour has been commendably clear that growth, if not the answer to all the UK’s economic problems, is a necessary precondition for reversing them and that there are no easy answers or short-cuts. One essential part of long-term growth strategy — alongside education and skills policy, planning and infrastructure and much more — is a managed but also open and flexible migration policy.
與此同時，工黨一直明確表示，成長即使不是解決英國所有經濟問題的答案，也是扭轉這些問題的必要前提，沒有簡單的答案或捷徑，這一點值得稱讚。除了教育和技能政策、規劃和基礎設施等，長期成長戰略的一個重要組成部分是有管理但也開放和靈活的移民政策。
What does that mean in practice? Uncertainty resulting from frequent policy change over the past few years has undermined business confidence and investment in the UK. Labour needs to explain — and soon — that immigration is not the problem, but one part of the solution.
這在實踐中意味著什麼？過去幾年中頻繁的政策變化所帶來的不確定性削弱了英國的商業信心和投資。工黨需要解釋，而且要儘快解釋，移民不是問題所在，而是解決方案的一部分。