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Nowhere has Donald Trump’s return as US president shaken up domestic politics quite as much as in Canada. It is remarkable enough that Mark Carney, a former central banker with no experience in politics or parliamentary seat, has been catapulted into the prime minister’s job with at least a fighting chance of winning an election that had seemed lost to his Liberal party. More remarkable still is that a Canadian leader should be faced with such a moment of peril for the country’s economy and sovereignty, after Trump’s tariff threats and talk of turning Canada into America’s 51st state. “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country,” he said in his acceptance speech. “Canada never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape or form.”
唐納•川普(Donald Trump)重返美國總統職位，對加拿大國內政治的衝擊尤爲顯著。令人驚訝的是，馬克•卡尼(Mark Carney)，這位沒有政治經驗或議會席位的前央行行長，竟然被推上了總理的位置，並且至少有一線希望贏得原本對自由黨來說似乎已失去的選舉。而更爲引人注目的是，在川普發出關稅威脅並表示要把加拿大變成美國的第51個州之後，加拿大領導人竟然面臨著這樣一個危及國家經濟和主權的時刻。「美國人想要我們的資源、我們的水、我們的土地、我們的國家，」他在就職演講中說道，「加拿大絕不會以任何方式、形態或形式成爲美國的一部分。」
Canada’s political landscape has been redrawn in the two months since Justin Trudeau stood down in the face of unhappiness over the Liberals’ handling of immigration, inflation and housing costs. Those domestic concerns have been eclipsed by Trump’s swingeing on-again, off-again tariffs and annexation talk — which many Canadians are taking very seriously. For more than a year, the opposition Conservative party and its Trump-inspired leader Pierre Poilievre had led Trudeau’s Liberals by up to 20 points or more. But the dangers the US president poses to Canada have revitalised the centre-left party, cutting the Conservative lead over a Carney-led Liberal party to 8 points.
賈斯汀•杜魯道(Justin Trudeau)因民衆對自由黨處理移民、通膨和住房成本的方式不滿而下臺，自此兩個月以來，加拿大的政治版圖已被重新劃分。這些國內問題已經被川普反覆無常的關稅和吞併言論所掩蓋——許多加拿大人對此非常重視。一年多來，反對黨保守黨及其受川普影響的領導人博勵治(Pierre Poilievre)一直領先杜魯道的自由黨多達20個百分點或更多。但美國總統給加拿大帶來的危險重振了中左翼政黨，將保守黨對卡尼領導的自由黨的領先優勢縮小到8個百分點。
The Liberals’ lack of a parliamentary majority means Carney will almost certainly call an early election, and political wisdom suggests it makes sense for him to try to build on his party’s momentum. It is in the country’s best interest, too, to rapidly choose a new government with a firm mandate. An election that had until recently been expected to cement a Canadian swing — as in many other western democracies — to the populist right is now set to hinge on which of the leading candidates voters trust most to stand up to Trump.
自由黨沒有獲得議會多數席位，這意味著卡尼幾乎肯定會提前舉行大選，而政治智慧表明，卡尼努力鞏固其政黨的勢頭是明智之舉。同時，迅速選出一個獲得堅定授權的新政府也符合國家的最佳利益。最近一直被認爲會鞏固加拿大向民粹主義右翼轉向的選舉——就像許多其他西方民主國家一樣——現在將取決於選民最信任哪位主要候選人來對抗川普。
Some Canadians will conclude that Poilievre, who has espoused a Trump-like faith in cutting taxes and replacing “woke” excesses with “common sense politics”, is best placed to deal with the US president. Carney, by contrast, a Harvard- and Oxford-educated central banker and green investment advocate, seems to be everything Trump dislikes. Yet Carney’s experience of crisis management, as head of Canada’s central bank during the 2008 financial crisis and Britain’s during Brexit, gives him some credibility in handling a trade war that threatens to push his country into a deep recession.
一些加拿大人會得出結論，博勵治支援川普式的減稅信念，並用「常識政治」取代「覺醒」的過度行爲，他最適合與美國總統打交道。相比之下，卡尼擁有哈佛大學和牛津大學的教育背景，是央行行長和綠色投資倡導者，似乎是川普所不喜歡的一切。然而，卡尼在2008年金融危機期間擔任加拿大央行行長，在英國脫歐期間擔任央行行長，他的危機管理經驗使他在處理貿易戰方面有一定的可信度，而這場貿易戰有可能使他的國家陷入深度衰退。
His task is to convince Canadian voters he is as skilled a politician as he is a technocrat — and devise twin strategies to win an election and to deal with the US president. Carney has shown a readiness to heed disaffected Liberal voters by pledging to ditch Trudeau’s widely-criticised carbon tax, replacing it with an industrial pricing system, and reverse a capital gains tax increase.
他的任務是讓加拿大選民相信，他既是一位技術官僚，也是一位嫺熟的政治家，並制定出贏得大選和應對美國總統的雙重策略。卡尼已經表示願意聽取心懷不滿的自由黨選民的意見，承諾放棄杜魯道廣受詬病的碳稅，代之以工業定價系統，並扭轉資本利得稅的成長。
The new Canadian prime minister has given less sense of his strategy for dealing with Trump, suggesting it would be wrong to do so while Trudeau was still handling negotiations. But even though Washington partially backtracked on tariffs imposed on Canada last week, Trudeau is right to have vowed to maintain retaliatory tariffs on about C$30bn ($21bn) of US goods. Robustness in standing up to the US president, while at the same time offering concessions on issues that matter to him, such as border security and drugs smuggling, seems to offer the best route to success.
候任加拿大總理對如何應對川普的策略透露得不多，表示在杜魯道仍在處理談判時這樣做是不對的。不過，儘管華盛頓部分撤回了上週對加拿大徵收的關稅，杜魯道誓言對約300億加元的美國商品維持報復性關稅是正確的。在對抗美國總統時表現出堅定，同時在他關心的問題上，如邊境安全和毒品走私，做出讓步，似乎是通向成功的最佳途徑。
Such negotiating skills are different from those required of a central banker, even if Carney has shown some political acumen in his campaign. He has helped his party to achieve what is already an unlikely turnaround. But his toughest political tests still lie ahead.
儘管卡尼在競選中表現出了一些政治敏銳性，但這種談判技巧與央行行長所需的技巧不同。他幫助他的政黨實現了本已不太可能的轉變。但他最嚴峻的政治考驗仍在前方。