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The writer is author of ‘Command’ and the Substack ‘Comment is Freed’
作者是《Command》和 Substack 平臺上《Comment is Freed》專欄的作者
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to establish a negotiating process to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine, the aggrieved party in the war, was not on the call but Trump rang him afterwards to tell him about what had been agreed, and presumably the role he might be allowed to play. Zelenskyy, who has worked very hard since well before last November’s US election to stay close to Trump, declared himself satisfied with the call.
週三，美國總統唐納•川普(Donald Trump)和俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普丁(Vladimir Putin)同意建立一個談判進程，以結束俄烏戰爭。烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾•澤倫斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)作爲戰爭中的受害方沒有參與通話，但川普隨後給他打了電話，告知他已達成的協議，以及他可能被允許扮演的角色。澤倫斯基自去年11月美國大選前就一直努力與川普保持密切關係，他表示對這次通話感到滿意。
This is despite comments from US officials dismissing two core features of Ukraine’s demands: the return of all territory seized illegally by Russia and security guarantees backed by the US, preferably through Nato. Trump administration officials have been consistent in pointing to Ukraine’s inability to liberate all its lost territory through military means. Meanwhile, the new American defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, told his Nato counterparts that the US no longer saw European security as its main priority. He added that while Ukraine could expect its own security guarantees, these would be provided by Europeans.
儘管美國官員否定了烏克蘭要求的兩個核心特徵：歸還所有被俄羅斯非法奪取的領土，以及由美國（最好是透過北約）支援的安全保障。川普政府官員一直指出烏克蘭無法透過軍事手段解放所有失去的領土。同時，新任美國國防部長皮特•海格塞斯(Pete Hegseth)告訴他的北約同行，美國不再將歐洲安全視爲主要優先事項。他補充說，雖然烏克蘭可以期待自己的安全保障，但這些保障將由歐洲人提供。
As ceasefire lines tend to get frozen, this prospect is viewed apprehensively in Kyiv, on account of the towns and people lost to Russian occupation. Yet while Trump’s readiness to bring Putin in from the cold and offer him pre-emptive concessions has led to widespread dismay among Ukraine’s supporters, negotiations have yet to begin and we are far from an actual deal.
由於停火線往往會被凍結，基輔對這一前景感到擔憂，因爲有城鎮和人民被俄羅斯佔領。然而，儘管川普準備將普丁從冷遇中拉回，並向他提供先發制人的讓步，這在烏克蘭的支持者中引起了廣泛的不安，但談判尚未開始，我們距離達成實際協議還很遙遠。
Many in Ukraine would welcome a ceasefire. The country is tired and bruised from almost three years of war and could use a respite to build up its armed forces and revive its economy. A ceasefire does not require, as the Russians expect, that it abandon hopes of recovering its lost territory forever. Nor have the Americans suggested that Ukraine should accede to the rest of Moscow’s demands — that it concede yet more territory to Russia, disarm its forces and change its regime and constitution.
烏克蘭的許多人會歡迎停火。這個國家因近三年的戰爭而疲憊不堪，傷痕累累，需要一個喘息的機會來重建其武裝力量並振興經濟。停火併不要求像俄羅斯人所期望的那樣，烏克蘭永遠放棄收復失地的希望。美國人也沒有建議烏克蘭應該同意莫斯科的其他要求——即向俄羅斯讓出更多領土，解除武裝，並改變其政權和憲法。
Putin is no doubt delighted to be treated with respect by Trump. But without these other demands being met, he will not have achieved his war aims. He does not agree with American ideas for an early ceasefire largely based on the current line of contact between the two sets of forces, to be followed by negotiations on a longer-term peace settlement. To be sure, this would allow him to hold a large chunk of Ukrainian land, but there would also be the prospect of Ukraine reconstituting its forces with western support to return to the fight later. Russia would need to subsidise and police occupied territory, much of which has been ruined by a series of destructive battles, and defend a long border.
普丁無疑對川普給予的尊重感到高興。但如果其他要求沒有得到滿足，他將無法實現他的戰爭目標。他不同意美國提出的早期停火建議，該建議主要基於當前兩軍接觸線，隨後進行長期和平談判。雖然這將使他佔據烏克蘭的大塊土地，但烏克蘭也可能在西方支援下重組部隊，日後重返戰鬥。俄羅斯將需要補貼和管理被佔領的領土，其中大部分已被破壞性戰鬥摧毀，並需防禦漫長的邊界。
That is why Putin has demanded that a peace settlement that allows him to achieve his war aims of the subjugation of Ukraine be agreed prior to any ceasefire. His starting position is even more ambitious, as confirmed in his call with Trump. He wants to deal with what he considers the “root causes” of the situation — the development of a European security order unfavourable to Russia since the end of the cold war.
這就是爲什麼普丁要求在任何停火之前達成一項和平協議，以實現他征服烏克蘭的戰爭目標。他的起始立場甚至更具野心，這在他與川普的通話中得到了證實。他希望解決他認爲的局勢「根本原因」——自冷戰結束以來對俄羅斯不利的歐洲安全秩序的發展。
There is no reason to suppose that Trump is interested in any of this. Hegseth’s comments suggest that, as far as the administration is concerned, the Russians should talk to Europeans about the future of Europe. And while Nato may be falling down the list of US priorities, it means that reversing the consequences of Nato enlargement is also a low priority. As Trump has stressed the importance of an early end to the fighting, he is not going to accept that a final settlement must be agreed before a ceasefire can come into effect. Negotiations to deal with all the outstanding issues could take many months. And, with the memories still fresh of what abandoning Afghanistan in August 2021 did to Joe Biden’s ratings, there are limits to how far Trump can push Kyiv into the loss of more sovereignty and territory, even if he wished to. His officials have said that he does not.
沒有理由認爲川普對這些事情感興趣。海格塞斯的評論表明，就政府而言，俄羅斯人應該與歐洲人討論歐洲的未來。雖然北約可能在美國的優先事項清單上排名下降，但這也意味著逆轉北約擴張的後果是一個低優先順序。由於川普強調儘早結束戰鬥的重要性，他不會接受必須在停火生效前達成最終協議。處理所有懸而未決問題的談判可能需要數月時間。而且，考慮到2021年8月放棄阿富汗對喬•拜登(Joe Biden)支援率的影響仍然記憶猶新，即使川普願意，他也無法將基輔推向更多主權和領土損失。他的官員們表示，他並不願意這樣做。
Most awkward for Putin is that his bargaining position is not that strong. Russia has enjoyed the military initiative since late 2023 and it has made incremental gains, but these have yet to reach the boundaries of the claimed territories and have come at an extraordinarily high cost. The campaign against critical infrastructure, intended to leave Ukraine shivering and in the dark through winter, has thus far failed.
對普丁來說，最尷尬的是他的談判地位並不強。自2023年底以來，俄羅斯一直掌握著軍事主動權，並取得了一些漸進的進展，但這些進展尚未達到聲稱領土的邊界，並且付出了極高的代價。針對關鍵基礎設施的行動，旨在讓烏克蘭在冬季中瑟瑟發抖、陷入黑暗，但迄今爲止未能成功。
And Ukraine has taken initiatives of its own. After six months it still holds a chunk of Kursk, which Zelenskyy has gamely offered to trade for the return of Ukrainian territory, and it now regularly attacks valuable targets inside Russia, including oil refineries. The Russian economy is starting to buckle under the strain, with official projections showing growth in decline while inflation remains high.
烏克蘭也採取了自己的行動。六個月後，它仍然控制著庫爾斯克的一部分，澤倫斯基勇敢地提出用這部分交換烏克蘭領土的歸還。烏克蘭現在定期攻擊俄羅斯境內的重要目標，包括煉油廠。俄羅斯經濟在壓力下開始崩潰，官方預測顯示經濟成長在下降，而通貨膨脹仍然很高。
So as the negotiating teams start to engage, Putin has to work out whether he can walk away from his maximalist demands. Perhaps he could agree to a ceasefire but only with a strict negotiating timetable for a final settlement and some early relief on sanctions; maybe he could concede Ukraine EU membership. But if Ukraine stays independent and armed, he will have failed. Should Putin end up being blamed for the failure of this big push for peace, he might find that even Trump is ready to step up support for Kyiv and impose more sanctions on Russia.
因此，當談判團隊開始接觸時，普丁必須考慮是否可以放棄他的最大化要求。也許他可以同意停火，但前提是要有嚴格的談判時間表來達成最終協議，並在早期解除部分制裁；也許他可以讓步，允許烏克蘭加入歐盟。但如果烏克蘭保持獨立並武裝，他將失敗。如果普丁最終被指責爲這次和平大推動的失敗者，他可能會發現即使是川普也準備加強對基輔的支援，並對俄羅斯施加更多制裁。