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A few weeks ago, Russian authorities returned to Ukraine the body of Yevhen Matveyev, mayor of Dniprorudne, a Russian-occupied town. He was captured after President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Russians offered no explanation of Matveyev’s death. In September, Viktoria Roshchyna, a Ukrainian journalist who bravely reported on conditions in Russian-held areas, died in captivity. She was 27.
幾周前，俄羅斯當局將葉夫亨•馬特維耶夫(Yevhen Matveyev)的遺體歸還給烏克蘭。葉夫亨•馬特維耶夫是俄羅斯佔領的城市第聶伯魯德尼的市長。在2022年2月弗拉基米爾•普丁(Vladimir Putin)全面入侵烏克蘭後，他被捕。俄羅斯方面沒有對馬特維耶夫的死因作出解釋。9月，勇敢報導俄羅斯控制區情況的烏克蘭記者維多利亞•羅什奇娜(Viktoria Roshchyna)在被拘禁期間去世，年僅27歲。
The longer Putin’s war of aggression has gone on, the less often such stories make the headlines. We hear a lot about Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, less about what is happening to people in the occupied areas. But if, as seems possible, Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire next year on the west’s advice, it is as certain as night follows day that ruthless repression and Russification will continue in the roughly 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory expected to remain in Russian hands.
普丁的侵略戰爭持續的時間越長，這類故事上頭條的頻率就越低。我們經常聽到關於俄羅斯在烏克蘭東部的軍事進展，卻很少聽到關於被佔領地區人民的情況。但如果烏克蘭在西方的建議下明年同意停火，那麼可以肯定的是，在預計仍由俄羅斯控制的大約20%的烏克蘭領土上，殘酷的鎮壓和俄羅斯化將繼續下去。
A growing war weariness in Ukraine and the desire of some western governments to end the fighting may enable Putin to retain de facto, though not legal, control of his conquests. But if so, the west will need a strong stomach for what will come next. To judge from Russia’s actions over the past three years — and longer in the case of Crimea, annexed in 2014 — the occupied areas will suffer a fate like that of western Ukraine and the Baltic states, seized by Joseph Stalin in the second world war and incorporated into the USSR.
烏克蘭國內日益成長的厭戰情緒和一些西方國家政府希望結束戰鬥的願望，可能會讓普丁保留對其征服地的實際控制，儘管不是合法控制。但如果是這樣的話，西方國家就需要對接下來發生的事情有足夠的承受力。從俄羅斯過去三年的行動，以及更長期2014年吞併的克里米亞來看，被佔領地區的命運將與第二次世界大戰中被約瑟夫•斯大林奪取並併入蘇聯的烏克蘭西部和波羅的海國家一樣。
Accurate information about occupied Ukraine right now is difficult but not impossible to come by. One authoritative source is the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. In October, Mariana Katzarova, the office’s special rapporteur for Russia, said: “Hundreds of Ukrainian detainees, including civilians and prisoners of war, are being forcibly transferred within Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine or deported to the Russian Federation, where they are held incommunicado and tortured for information or as punishment.”
目前很難獲得關於被佔領烏克蘭的準確資訊，但並非一無所知。一個權威來源是聯合國人權事務高級專員辦事處。10月，該辦公室負責俄羅斯事務的特別報告員瑪麗安娜•卡扎羅娃(Mariana Katzarova)表示：「數百名烏克蘭被拘留者，包括平民和戰俘，被強行轉移到俄羅斯佔領的烏克蘭領土內，或被驅逐到俄羅斯聯邦，在那裏他們被單獨監禁，並遭受酷刑以獲取資訊或作爲懲罰。」
There are credible reports of war crimes and human rights violations from Ukrainian non-governmental organisations and investigative media. Very occasionally, grim news emerges from Russia itself. In November, a military court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced two Russian soldiers to life in prison for killing a Ukrainian family of nine, including two children, in the occupied town of Volnovakha. The soldiers’ motives fell into the category of “political, ideological, racial, national or religious hatred”.
烏克蘭非政府組織和調查媒體都有關於戰爭罪和侵犯人權行爲的可靠報導。偶爾，俄羅斯也會傳出一些令人沮喪的訊息。11月，頓河畔羅斯托夫的一家軍事法庭判處兩名俄羅斯士兵終身監禁，罪名是他們在被佔領的沃爾諾瓦哈鎮殺害了包括兩名兒童在內的一家九口烏克蘭人。這兩名士兵的動機屬於「政治、意識形態、種族、民族或宗教仇恨」。
Another well-documented crime is the forcible abduction to Russia of Ukrainian children. Putin signed a decree putting these children on a fast track to Russian citizenship. The abductions prompted the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for him and for Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s misleadingly named commissioner for children’s rights. According to the Ukrainian website Children of War, almost 20,000 children have been deported or forcibly displaced.
另一項有據可查的罪行是強行將烏克蘭兒童綁架到俄羅斯。普丁簽署了一項法令，讓這些兒童快速獲得俄羅斯國籍。這些綁架事件促使國際刑事法院對普丁和俄羅斯兒童權利專員瑪麗亞•利沃娃•貝洛娃(Maria Lvova-Belova)發出了逮捕令。據烏克蘭網站「戰爭中的兒童」(Children of War)稱，近兩萬名兒童被驅逐出境或被迫流離失所。
The state-sanctioned removal of children points to a central aim of Russian policy in the occupied areas — the systematic eradication of Ukrainian identity. One route to this goal is to seize people’s homes and make it impossible for them to regain them unless they acquire Russian passports. Another is to declare homes ownerless and move Russian settlers into them. A third is to Russify the education system and use Roskomnadzor, Russia’s internet censor, to block independent Ukrainian websites.
國家批准遷移兒童的做法表明了俄羅斯在佔領區政策的核心目標——有計劃地消除烏克蘭人的身份。實現這一目標的途徑之一是奪取家園，除非他們獲得俄羅斯護照，否則不可能重返家園。另一條途徑是宣佈房屋無主，讓俄羅斯定居者搬進去。第三種方法是將教育系統俄羅斯化，並利用俄羅斯的網路審查機構Roskomnadzor來封鎖獨立的烏克蘭網站。
Few occupied areas have been more rigorously Russified than Crimea. And of the people there, few have been treated more mercilessly than the Crimean Tatar minority. Some 250,000 lived in Crimea at the start of the century, but about 20,000 left the peninsula for mainland Ukraine after the 2014 annexation. Another 10,000 went abroad after the 2022 invasion to avoid conscription into Russia’s armed forces. In a newly published book about the Crimean Tatars, the British scholar Donald Rayfield describes Russia’s actions since 2014 as “the last stage of an ethnic genocide”.
幾乎沒有哪個被佔領地區的俄羅斯化比克里米亞更嚴格。在那裏的人民中，很少有比克里米亞韃靼少數民族受到的待遇更無情的了。本世紀初，約有25萬人生活在克里米亞，但在2014年被吞併後，約有2萬人離開前往烏克蘭本土。另有1萬人在2022年入侵後出國，以避免被徵召入伍。英國學者唐納德•雷菲爾德((Donald Rayfield)在新出版的一本關於克里米亞韃靼人的書中，將俄羅斯自2014年以來的行動描述爲「種族滅絕的最後階段」。
It is the last stage because, in 1944, Stalin deported the entire Crimean Tatar population from its homeland (many returned in the 1980s and 1990s). Tens of thousands died en route to central Asia and Siberia. Similar horrors were inflicted on Poles, Balts and other minorities.
這是最後一個階段，因爲在1944年，斯大林將整個克里米亞韃靼人從他們的家園驅逐（許多人在20世紀80年代和90年代返回）。成千上萬的人在前往中亞和西伯利亞的途中死亡。類似的恐怖也降臨在波蘭人、波羅的海人和其他少數民族身上。
Memories of these crimes explain why many central and eastern Europeans, including Ukrainians, abhor the idea of leaving Putin in control of areas seized since 2022. They know what Russia has done in the past, what it is doing now and what it will do in the future. A ceasefire seems on the horizon — but if it happens, the aftermath will rest on our consciences for much longer.
對這些罪行的記憶解釋了爲什麼包括烏克蘭人在內的許多中歐和東歐人憎惡讓普丁控制自2022年以來佔領區的想法。他們知道俄羅斯過去做了什麼，現在在做什麼，將來會做什麼。停火似乎就在眼前，但如果發生，其後果將長期令我們難以釋懷。