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Dear reader,
親愛的讀者，
Magic does not work. Science does. The first morphed into the second via alchemy. This fruitless quest to transmute base metals into gold laid the foundations for systematic experimentation. One of the finest fruits of the latter is the victory of medical science over a lengthening list of diseases.
魔術是假的。科學纔是真的。不過，前者透過鍊金術演變成後者。這種將賤金屬轉化爲黃金的無果探索爲系統實驗奠定了基礎。後者的最佳成果之一，就是醫學科學戰勝了越來越多的疾病。
Lex explored this theme — and R&D as a broader topic — in this week’s column. You can email me about that, or any other aspect of our coverage at Lexfeedback@ft.com.
Lex在本週的專欄中探討了這個主題，以及研發作爲一個更廣泛的話題。您可以透過Lexfeedback@ft.com給我發送電子郵件，討論這個問題或我們報導的任何其他方面。
One of my first jobs at the Financial Times was writing about pharmaceuticals. As I prepare to retire from full-time journalism, it stands out as one of the few areas where well-financed innovation has indisputably improved the world.
我在英國《金融時報》(Financial Times)的第一份工作之一是寫藥品方面的報導。隨著我準備從全職新聞工作中退休，這個領域成爲少數幾個有充足資金支援的創新無可爭議地改善了世界的領域之一。
I unwittingly contributed to a broad bust in UK biotech stocks in the late 1990s by exposing the inaccuracy of claims made by flagship company British Biotech. Its drugs did not work.
在1990年代末，我無意中揭露了英國生物技術公司(British Biotech)旗艦公司所做聲明的不準確性，從而導致了英國生物技術股票的大規模崩盤。他們的藥物並沒有起作用。
Just over a decade later I was bemoaning the Götterdämmerung of Big Pharma in the Lombard column. Pharma units languished at discounts to healthcare divisions selling bunion cream within the valuations of companies such as GSK.
在十多年後，我在《倫巴第專欄》(Lombard column)中哀嘆著大型製藥公司的黃昏(Götterdämmerung)。製藥部門在估值中表現不佳，相比之下，像GSK這樣的公司旗下銷售痛風膏等保健產品的部門則享有更高的估值。
One analyst told me most potential blockbuster drugs had been discovered — although that was plainly unknowable.
一位分析師告訴我，大多數潛在的暢銷藥物已經被發現了——儘管這顯然是無法預知的。
Then, starting in 2013, Gilead of the US delivered a series of breakthrough treatments for hepatitis B. In 2014, AstraZeneca rebuffed a takeover bid from Pfizer with projections for sales of new drugs many observers thought were wildly optimistic.
然後，從2013年開始，美國的吉利德(Gilead)公司推出了一系列治療乙型肝炎的突破性療法。2014年，阿斯特捷利康(AstraZeneca)拒絕了輝瑞(Pfizer)的收購要約，並給出了許多觀察家認爲過於樂觀的新藥銷售預測。
Since then, the Anglo-Swedish group has made extraordinary progress. It has been one of the lead developers of the immunotherapy drugs that are at last pushing back cancer.
從那時起，這個英瑞集團取得了非凡的進展。它成爲了免疫療法藥物的主要開發者之一，這些藥物終於開始抗擊癌症。
AstraZeneca also produced a serviceable Covid vaccine. But it was German start-up BioNTech that really turned the tide against coronavirus in 2020 — with a little help from Pfizer.
阿斯特捷利康也生產了一種可用的新冠疫苗。但真正在 2020 年扭轉冠狀病毒疫情的是德國新創公司BioNTech——輝瑞公司也提供了一點幫助。
For some pharma groups, notably Sanofi of France, the pandemic was a time of embarrassing and very public underperformance. This week, chief executive Paul Hudson admitted he had fumbled the scrapping of 2025 margin targets.
對於一些製藥集團，尤其是法國的賽諾菲(Sanofi)，這次大流行是一個令人尷尬且非常公開的表現不佳的時刻。本週，首席執行長保羅•哈德森(Paul Hudson)承認他在取消2025年利潤率目標方面犯了錯誤。
Investors fear the company is over-dependent on blockbuster asthma and eczema drug Dupixent. Sales should top €20bn by 2030, with exclusivity running out not long after. Pipeline drugs will need to come on stream to replace lost earnings.
投資者擔心該公司過度依賴暢銷的哮喘和溼疹藥物Dupixent。到2030年，銷售額將超過200億歐元，不久之後，專賣權就會到期。需要推出新的藥物來取代失去的收入。
The success of weight loss drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly has prompted other invidious comparisons. Roche is therefore acquiring US-based obesity drugs developer Carmot for up to $3.1bn. The Swiss company already has a packed pipeline. The problem is that too many drug trials have failed.
諾和諾德(Novo Nordisk)和禮來公司(Eli Lilly)的減肥藥取得的成功引發了其他令人嫉妒的比較。因此，羅氏(Roche)將以高達31億美元的價格收購總部位於美國的肥胖藥物開發公司Carmot。這家瑞士公司已經有了一條滿滿的產品線。問題在於太多的藥物試驗失敗了。
Merck knows how that feels. Its shares slumped 12 per cent on Wednesday after a multiple sclerosis medicine flopped in late-stage trials. The market value dropped by €4.5bn, much more than the prospective value of the drug. Merck badly needs cancer treatment Xevinapant to succeed.
默克公司深有體會。一種多發性硬化症藥物在後期試驗中失敗後，默克公司的股價在週三暴跌了 12%。市值下跌了 45 億歐元，遠高於該藥物的預期價值。默克公司急需癌症治療藥物Xevinapant取得成功。
China’s pharma researchers do a lot of R&D of their own, but do not seem to produce many blockbusters. Even so, it would be highly regrettable if the US stuck a spanner in the works of Chinese drugs research.
中國的製藥研究人員自己進行了大量的研發工作，但似乎並沒有生產出很多暢銷藥。即便如此，如果美國對中國的藥物研究投以阻礙，那將是非常遺憾的。
The stock of Wuxi Biologics fell steeply this week after a profit warning. In Lex’s view, the shares were on a hair trigger. Foreign investors fear that America could extend sanctions against Chinese digital technology to its pharmaceuticals.
藥明生物(Wuxi Biologics)的股價在本週因盈利預警而大幅下跌。在Lex的觀點中，這些股票處於非常敏感的狀態。外國投資者擔心美國可能會將對中國數字技術的制裁擴展到其製藥業。
This would hurt science and healthcare. But there is no cure for human folly.
這將對科學和醫療造成傷害。但是人類的愚蠢是無法治癒的。
Nor for rent seeking. This is embodied in the expensive, dysfunctional and unfair US healthcare system.
這也不是爲了尋租。它體現在昂貴、功能失調和不公平的美國醫療保健系統中。
The advent of “value-based” care under the US’s state Medicare and Medicaid systems is triggering a gold rush among insurers, healthcare providers and benefits managers. One consequence, after successive rounds of consolidation, is a mooted $140bn insurance tie-up between Cigna and Humana.
在聯邦醫療保險計劃和醫療補助下，出現了「以價值爲基礎」的醫療模式，這引發了保險公司、醫療服務提供商和福利管理機構之間的一場熱潮。在一系列整合之後，信諾(Cigna)和Humana計劃進行一項價值約1400億美元的保險合併。
US healthcare is a horrible embarrassment, if, like me, you would prefer markets to deliver optimal outcomes. This is still possible for Airbus’s planned replacement for the A320 narrow-body jet.
如果像我一樣，你更希望市場能夠實現最佳結果，那麼美國的醫療保健系統是一個可怕的尷尬。對於空巴(Airbus)計劃中的A320窄體飛機的替代品，這仍然是可能的。
The European consortium company has nevertheless hinted it may need state support for the research and development project. Just to keep boss Guillaume Faury on his toes, Lex calculated that private investors have a good chance of making a decent 14 per cent internal rate of return on the $15bn project.
然而，這家歐洲財團公司暗示可能需要國家支援這個研發項目。爲了讓總裁紀堯姆•福裏(Guillaume Faury)保持警惕，Lex計算出私人投資者在這個150億美元項目上有很大機會獲得14%的良好內部回報率。
Better get weaving on those investor slide decks, M. Faury.
福裏先生，最好開始製作那些投資者幻燈片了。
Developing quantum computers is a rather more speculative activity. Just to be clear, these do not work at present and may never do so. Quantum states are innately unstable, like markets. However, the publication of a seven-year development timeline by IBM should help to attract investment capital to the sector.
開發量子電腦是一項投機性更強的活動。需要說明的是，量子電腦目前還無法工作，而且可能永遠無法工作。量子態天生就不穩定，就像市場一樣。不過，IBM公佈的七年發展時間表應該有助於吸引投資資本進入這一領域。
Digit fidget
數字焦慮
Lex uses steam-powered spreadsheets, not quantum computers, for its own calculations. Some of the figures we reported this week usefully highlighted key stories:
Lex在自己的計算中使用蒸汽動力電子表格，而不是量子電腦。本週我們報告的一些數字有助於突出關鍵故事：
Dual-listed German travel group Tui may ditch London to make Frankfurt its main quote. Median daily volume in the FTSE All-Share is just 0.15 per cent of market value, says Panmure. That compares with 0.2 per cent for the Stoxx 600 ex-UK and 0.7 per cent for the S&P 500.
兩地上市的德國旅遊集團途易(Tui)可能放棄倫敦，將法蘭克福作爲主要上市地。Panmure表示，富時全股指數(FTSE All-Share)的日成交量中值僅爲市值的0.15%。相比之下，不含英國的斯托克600指數(Stoxx 600)和標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)的漲幅分別爲0.2%和0.7%。
AJ Bell has revealed that cash accounts for 13.3 per cent of its retail customer assets. The UK DIY investment platform faces regulatory pressure to reduce the level. Citi estimates that every 1 percentage point fall in these cash balances erodes earnings by 6 per cent.
AJ Bell透露，現金佔其零售客戶資產的13.3％。這家英國自助投資平臺面臨著降低這一水準的監管壓力。花旗(Citi)估計，這些現金餘額每下降1個百分點，將使收益減少6％。
BAT has reduced its estimate of the economic life of its US brands from “forever” to 30 years. Even that may be optimistic. Cigarette makers are failing to persuade newly wealthy Asians to puff on their toxic wares. Nor are tobacco companies faring well in vapes.
Spotify is on course to generate $2.2mn in sales per employee following job cuts. Meta should manage $2.2mn and Netflix $3mn. The music streaming platform may need to cut more deeply.
英美菸草(BAT)將其美國品牌的經濟壽命從「永遠」縮短到30年。即使如此，這也可能是樂觀的。香菸製造商未能說服新富裕的亞洲人吸食他們有毒的產品。菸草公司在電子煙方面也表現不佳。
Spotify在裁員後，剩下的每位員工有望創造220萬美元的銷售額。相比之下，Meta的這一數字應該達到220萬美元，Netflix達到300萬美元。這家音樂串流媒體平臺可能需要更大幅度的裁員。
Things I have enjoyed
我喜歡的
The closing credits of Napoleon. When they started rolling, it meant I did not have to watch the movie any more.
《拿破崙》(Napoleon)的片尾字幕開始滾動時，意味著我不必再看這部電影了。
Boney’s mob failed to kill my ancestor Gunner “Paisley Jimmy” Guthrie at the Battle of Waterloo. But I nearly lost my own will to live during this ahistorical, plodding account of the general’s life.
在滑鐵盧戰役中，博尼（拿破崙）的暴徒沒能殺死我的祖先岡納-「佩斯利-吉米」-格思裏（Gunner "Paisley Jimmy" Guthrie）。但是，在觀看這部缺乏歷史感、對這位將軍的生平乏善可陳的描述的電影時，我幾乎失去了生存的意志。
I loved the Frans Hals exhibition at London’s National Gallery. Incredible portraiture was mournfully adorned by the name of defunct sponsor Credit Suisse.
我喜歡倫敦國家美術館(London』s National Gallery)的弗蘭斯•哈爾斯(Frans Hals)展覽。令人難過的是，這些令人難以置信的肖像畫被已倒閉的贊助商瑞信(Credit Suisse)的名字所裝飾。
I have also greatly enjoyed writing for you over the past few years. Lex readers are smart, highly educated and always keen to debate an interesting point.
在過去的幾年裏，我也非常喜歡爲您寫作。Lex的讀者聰明、受過良好教育，並且總是熱衷於辯論一個有趣的觀點。
Thank you so much for reading.
非常感謝您的閱讀。
Au revoir,
再會，
Jonathan Guthrie
喬納森•格思裏(Jonathan Guthrie)
Head of Lex
Lex欄目主管
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