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國際社會有一種令人震驚的傾向，認爲發展中國家的債務是可持續的，因爲它們可以在作出一些犧牲之後得到償還。
There is an alarming tendency among the international community to regard debts in the developing world as sustainable because they can, after some sacrifice, be paid off.
但這就像說一個貧窮的家庭可以維持下去，因爲他們總是能夠償還高利貸。採納這一觀點，就會忽視爲了支付利息而被迫忍受的飢餓、被迫放棄的教育投資和被迫短缺的醫療支出。這種債務陷阱正在形成一場社會災難。十年後，債務可能還了，但這個家會毀了。
But this is like saying a poor family will stay afloat because they always repay their loan sharks. To take this view is to overlook the skipped meals, the foregone investment in education and the lack of health spending that forcibly make room for interest payments. This sort of debt trap is a social catastrophe in the making. Ten years from now, the debt may be repaid, but the family will be ruined.
這是許多發展中國家無論大小都面臨的困境。疫情、生活成本危機和利率上升，使他們只能透過緊縮或放棄對可持續發展目標的投資來償還債務。他們的債務是可持續的，因爲他們可以償還，但在其他方面是不可持續的。
This is the dilemma facing many developing countries, both big and small. The pandemic, cost of living crisis and rising interest rates have brought them to a point where they can only pay their debts by way of austerity or foregone investment in the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Their debts are sustainable in that they can be repaid, but unsustainable in every other way.
此外，這場以債務危機爲核心的全面發展危機還可能使世界經濟的大部分地區進入新的「失去的十年」。
Furthermore, this full-blown development crisis with debt distress at its core also threatens a new lost decade for much of the world economy.
上世紀80年代那樣的債務危機可能會威脅到全球金融穩定，而這種危機的重演沒有受到重視。但發展中國家（除中國外）的公共債務在2021年達到11.5兆美元。根據某些說法，嚴重的債務問題主要侷限於這一數字的一小部分，主要來自查德、尚比亞或衣索比亞等非常脆弱的低收入國家。
The repeat of a 1980s-style debt crisis that could in turn threaten global financial stability is perceived to be marginal. But the public debt of developing countries, excluding China, reached $11.5tn in 2021. By some accounts, serious debt problems are largely confined to a small share of this figure, owed by highly vulnerable low-income countries such as Chad, Zambia or Ethiopia.
但形勢正在迅速惡化。疫情期間，100多個發展中國家的政府債務激增了近2兆美元，原因是社會支出增加，而收入因封鎖而凍結。現在，各國央行都在提高利率，這加劇了這個問題。利率上升意味著發展中經濟體的資本外逃和貨幣貶值，以及借貸成本上升。這些因素已將迦納或斯里蘭卡等國推入債務困境。
But the situation is deteriorating rapidly. During the pandemic, government debt ballooned by almost $2tn in more than 100 developing countries (excluding China), as social spending went up while incomes froze due to lockdowns. Now, central banks are raising interest rates, which exacerbates the problem. Rising rates have meant capital flight and currency depreciation in developing economies, as well as increasing borrowing costs. These factors have pushed countries such as Ghana or Sri Lanka into debt distress.
2021年，發展中國家償還了4000億美元的債務，是它們獲得官方發展援助金額的兩倍多。與此同時，它們的國際儲備去年減少了6000多億美元，幾乎是它們透過IMF特別提款權(SDR)獲得的緊急支援的三倍。
In 2021, developing countries paid $400bn in debt service, more than twice the amount they received in official development aid. Meanwhile, their international reserves declined by over $600bn last year, almost three times what they received in emergency support through the IMF Special Drawing Rights allocation.
因此，在日益萎縮的國家資源蛋糕中，外債正在蠶食越來越大的一塊。隨著通貨膨脹加劇，自然災害更加頻繁，糧食和能源進口價格上漲，各國需要更多而不是更少的應急規劃援助。
Foreign debts are therefore eating an ever-larger piece of an ever-shrinking national resources pie. As inflation rises, natural disasters become more frequent and food and energy imports rise in price, countries need more, not less, contingency planning assistance.
A much bolder approach is needed. Recent efforts by the international community to agree on large-scale emergency debt measures have faltered. This is despite important efforts at the G20 through the now-discontinued Debt Service Suspension Initiative, and the Common Framework for Debt Treatments, which is in need of crucial improvements, such as suspending payments during negotiations and an extension to middle-income countries in debt distress.
我們需要一個更加大膽的方法。國際社會最近就大規模緊急債務措施達成一致的努力已經受挫。儘管20國集團(G20)透過現已終止的「暫停償債倡議」和「債務處理共同框架」做出了重要努力，但該框架仍需要進行重大改進，例如在談判期間暫停償債，以及將債務危機擴大到中等收入國家。
The failure of these efforts has revealed the complexity of existing procedures, characterised by creditors who refuse to engage in restructuring with extraordinary powers of sabotage. Crisis resolutions are often too little, too late. The world lacks an effective system to deal with debt.
這些努力的失敗揭示了現有程式的複雜性，其特點是具有巨大破壞力量的債權人拒絕參與重組。危機解決方案往往太少、太遲。世界缺乏有效的債務處理體系。
An independent sovereign debt authority that engages with creditor and debtor interests, both institutional and private, is urgently needed. At a minimum, such an authority should provide coherent guidelines for suspending debt payments in disaster situations, ensuring SDGs are considered in debt sustainability assessments, and providing expert advice to governments in need.
我們迫切需要一個獨立的主權債務管理機構，協調債權人和債務人的利益（包括機構利益和私人利益）。至少，這樣一個機構應該爲在災難情況下暫停償還債務提供一致的指導方針，確保可持續發展目標在債務可持續性評估中得到考慮，併爲有需要的政府提供專家建議。
Furthermore, a public debt registry for developing countries would allow both lenders and borrowers to access debt data. This would go a long way in boosting debt transparency, strengthening debt management, reducing the risk of debt distress and improving access to financing. Progress on both these fronts could begin with an independent review of the G20 debt agenda: India’s presidency may bring a historic opportunity to succeed where others have faltered.
此外，發展中國家的公共債務登記機構將使借方和貸方都能獲得債務數據。這將大大有助於提高債務透明度、加強債務管理、降低債務困境風險和改善融資管道。這兩個方面的進展可以從對20國集團債務議程的獨立審查開始：印度擔任主席國可能會帶來一個歷史機遇，在其他國家步履蹣跚的地方取得成功。
Tackling the current global debt crisis is not only a moral imperative. In a context of growing climate and geopolitical distress, it is one the biggest threats to global peace and security and financial stability. Without supporting countries to become sustainable, their debts will never be realistically repayable.
應對當前的全球債務危機不僅是道義上的責任。在氣候和地緣政治困境日益加劇的背景下，它是全球和平與安全以及金融穩定的最大威脅之一。如果不支援這些國家實現可持續發展，它們的債務就永遠無法切實償還。
