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No financial battle plan survives first contact with enemy economies. That is clear from western sanctions on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia this week escalated the arm’s length conflict by threatening to keep Europe’s gas switched off until it lifts restrictions.
沒有任何金融作戰計劃能在與敵方經濟體的首次接觸中倖存下來。這一點從西方在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後對其實施的制裁中可以看出。本週，俄羅斯威脅要繼續切斷歐洲的天然氣供應，直到制裁解除，從而升級了雙方之間保持一定距離衝突。
Russia’s latest broadside reflects both the strengths and weaknesses of its position.
俄羅斯最新的猛烈反擊反映了其立場的優勢和弱點。
Sanctions are biting less than western politicians hoped, judging from VTB. Russia’s second-largest bank said it had returned to profit in July after record losses in the first half. Its shares, and those of larger rival Sberbank, are at six-month highs.
從俄羅斯外貿銀行的判斷來看，制裁的影響沒有西方政客希望的那麼大。這家俄羅斯第二大銀行表示，在上半年出現創紀錄虧損後，今年7月已恢復盈利。該行及其更大競爭對手俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank)的股價均處於六個月高點。
Many pundits predicted a banking crisis. It has not materialised. The rouble is near five-year peaks. Inflation is reportedly falling.
許多專家預測會發生銀行業危機。但這並未發生。盧布匯率接近五年峯值。通膨據報正在下降。
The caveat is that Russian financial data are suspect. A ban on ordinary financial reporting prevents normal analysis. Russian propaganda downplays the impact of sanctions, which evidently have the Kremlin rattled.
需要注意的是，俄羅斯的金融數據並不可信。對普通財務報告的禁令妨礙了正常的分析。俄羅斯的宣傳淡化了顯然讓克里姆林宮感到不安的制裁的影響。
However, Liam Peach at Capital Economics, a UK consultancy, says data from independent private providers are consistent with official figures. A GDP contraction of 12 per cent at the onset of war was first revised to a 7 per cent fall. Peach now thinks Russia’s economy might be 4 per cent smaller this year.
然而，英國諮詢公司Capital Economics的利亞姆•皮奇(Liam Peach)表示，來自獨立私人提供商的數據與官方數據一致。戰爭爆發時預測的12%的GDP收縮首次被修正爲下降7%。皮奇現在認爲，今年俄羅斯經濟規模可能會收縮4%。
Sanction exemptions for energy have helped hugely. So has enthusiastic purchasing by the likes of India. Lower European and US imports are buoying Russia to a record trade surplus this year.
對能源的制裁豁免起到了巨大的幫助。印度等國的狂熱購買也起到了同樣的作用。從歐洲和美國進口的減少，正推動俄羅斯今年實現創紀錄的貿易順差。
Liquidity support propped banks up through initial shocks. But these were hefty. Dmitry Tulin, the central bank’s deputy chair, estimated system-wide losses of Rbs1.5tn ($25bn) for the first half of the year, or 12 per cent of total bank capital. Total loans outstanding fell 9 per cent between April and July.
流動性支援支撐銀行渡過了最初的衝擊。但這些打擊是沉重的。俄羅斯央行副主席德米特里•圖林(Dmitry Tulin)估計，今年上半年，整個銀行系統損失1.5兆盧布(合250億美元)，相當於銀行總資本的12%。今年4月至7月，未償貸款總額下降了9%。
Russia will now be hampered by its lack of access to high-tech capital goods of the sort produced in Germany. This is likely to disrupt energy extraction as the war of economic attrition grinds on.
俄羅斯現在將受到阻礙，因爲它無法獲得德國生產的那種高科技資本貨物。隨著經濟消耗戰的不斷深入，這可能會破壞能源開採。
Russia has shown it can bear the pain of western sanctions. Western Europe must endure reprisals as robustly, or concede a historic defeat.
俄羅斯已經表明它能夠承受西方制裁帶來的痛苦。西歐必須以同樣堅韌的態度忍受報復，否則就不得不承認歷史性失敗。
