尊敬的用戶您好，這是來自FT中文網的溫馨提示：如您對更多FT中文網的內容感興趣，請在蘋果應用商店或谷歌應用市場搜尋「FT中文網」，下載FT中文網的官方應用。
American consumers have become used to buying T-shirts, plushies and other knick-knacks from the likes of Temu and Shein at rock-bottom prices. Whether they knew it or not, their bargains were partly the result of an old tax loophole that is now being taken away. Fortunately for them, the future of online binge-buying remains cheap, if a little less cheerful.
美國消費者已經習慣於從像Temu和希音(Shein)這樣的商家以極低的價格購買T恤、毛絨玩具和其他小飾品。不管他們是否知道，這些便宜貨部分是由於一個舊的稅收漏洞，而這個漏洞現在正在被取消。幸運的是，儘管未來的在線瘋狂購物可能會稍微不那麼令人愉快，但價格仍然便宜。
President Donald Trump’s crackdown on the “de minimis rule” — which allows overseas packages valued at $800 or less to enter the US tax-free as long as they are sent directly to individuals — means that a $10 mini skirt, dinner-plate set or inflatable hamburger outfit will now be subject to normal import taxes as well as the extra 10 per cent tariff that Trump has levied on all imports from China.
美國總統唐納•川普(Donald Trump)對「微量豁免規則」(de minimis rule)的打擊——該規則允許價值800美元或以下的海外包裹直接寄給個人時免稅進入美國——意味著一條10美元的迷你裙、餐具套裝或充氣漢堡服裝現在將需要繳納正常的進口稅，以及川普對所有來自中國的進口商品徵收的額外10%的關稅。
Temu, in particular, has been preparing for this day. The online store, part of Chinese internet group PDD, has been growing strongly. Bernstein Research reckons its global gross merchandise value — the total of all goods sold — jumped from $17bn in 2023 to more than $50bn last year. The figure could double to $97bn by 2026, according to Goldman Sachs.
特別是Temu，一直在爲這一天做準備。作爲中國網路集團拼多多(PDD)的一部分，這家在線商店一直在強勁成長。伯恩斯坦研究(Bernstein Research)估計，其全球商品總值(GMV)——即所有商品的總銷售額——從2023年的170億美元躍升至去年的500多億美元。根據高盛(Goldman Sachs)的數據，這一數字到2026年可能會翻倍至970億美元。
It has also diversified geographically — limiting the impact of tax loophole closures. The US accounts for less than half of Temu’s global GMV, compared with 100 per cent three years ago, when the app first launched.
它在地域上也實現了多元化，從而減小了稅收漏洞關閉的影響。美國在Temu全球GMV中的佔比不到一半，而三年前該應用首次推出時，這一比例爲100%。
Meanwhile, Temu has moved away from its “direct from China factory floors” consignment business model. It has recruited vendors who already have goods in US and European warehouses and simply use Temu as a shop window. Goods sold under this semi-consignment model, in which vendors handle their own shipping and delivery logistics, were already imported in bulk, so didn’t benefit from the de-minimis perk. Temu competes with Amazon for their business, with lower and fewer fees.
與此同時，Temu 已經捨棄了「直接從中國工廠發貨」的寄售業務模式。它招募了那些已經在美國和歐洲倉庫中有貨物的供應商，僅僅將 Temu 作爲一個展示視窗。在這種半寄售模式下，供應商自行處理運輸和交付物流，商品已經以批次進口，因此無法享受免稅優惠。Temu 以更低和更少的費用與亞馬遜(Amazon)競爭這些業務。
This strategic shift leaves Temu less reliant on China-based merchants selling small lots of merchandise overseas. Indeed, semi consignment vendors now account for about a quarter of Temu’s US GMV, says Goldman. The adoption of this model in other countries means only 20 per cent of Temu’s global GMV is exposed to potential changes in the de minimis provision, added Bernstein.
這一戰略轉變使得Temu不再過於依賴中國商家向海外銷售小批次商品。實際上，高盛表示，半寄售供應商現在佔Temu美國GMV的約四分之一。伯恩斯坦研究補充道，在其他國家採用這一模式意味著Temu全球GMV中只有20%可能受到微量豁免規則變化的影響。
Like Shein, which is unlisted but considering a London initial public offering, Temu doesn’t need a tax quirk to be a big threat to bricks-and-mortar retailers. Trump’s trade war is expected to drive prices for everything from avocados to energy higher — which means the “trading down” trend could get a new fillip. De minimis might describe these retailers’ prices, but the businesses themselves are anything but.
像希音一樣，Temu尚未上市，但正在考慮在倫敦進行首次公開募股。Temu不需要稅收漏洞就能對實體零售商構成巨大威脅。川普的貿易戰預計將推動從牛油果到能源的所有商品價格上漲——這意味著「降級消費」趨勢可能會得到新的推動。這些零售商的價格可能可以用「微量」來形容，但其業務本身卻絕非如此。