尊敬的用戶您好，這是來自FT中文網的溫馨提示：如您對更多FT中文網的內容感興趣，請在蘋果應用商店或谷歌應用市場搜尋「FT中文網」，下載FT中文網的官方應用。
Hours after spurning a US-led proposal for a 21-day truce with Hizbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that he was changing the balance of power in the region for years to come. Israel’s prime minister had just ordered the assassination of the Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, signalling that Israel was turning its focus from Gaza’s wastelands to step up its offensive against the Lebanese militants. As the year ends, the dynamics in the Middle East have unquestionably shifted in Israel’s favour.
在9月份拒絕美國主導的與黎巴嫩真主黨(Hizbollah)達成21天停火協議的提議數小時後，本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)誇口說，他正在改變未來幾年該地區的力量平衡。這位以色列總理下令暗殺黎巴嫩真主黨領導人哈桑•納斯魯拉(Hassan Nasrallah)，這表明以色列正將注意力從加沙的荒地轉向加強對黎巴嫩武裝分子的攻勢。隨著這一年的結束，中東的局勢無疑已經向以色列傾斜。
The Israeli military’s relentless pounding of Hizbollah forced it into a ceasefire agreement that has essentially given Israel the right to continue striking in Lebanon. Iran appears at its most vulnerable in years. Its “axis of resistance” of Iranian-backed militants, including Hizbollah and Hamas, looks ever more a paper tiger. Israeli bombs destroyed much of the Islamic republic’s air defences in October — the biggest conventional attack on Iran in decades.
以色列軍隊對黎巴嫩真主黨的持續猛烈打擊迫使其達成停火協議，實質上賦予了以色列繼續打擊黎巴嫩的權利。伊朗似乎處於多年來最脆弱的狀態。由伊朗支援的武裝分子——黎巴嫩真主黨和哈馬斯(Hamas)——組成的「抵抗軸心」看起來越來越像紙老虎。10月份，以色列的炸彈摧毀了這個伊斯蘭共和國的大部分防空系統，這是幾十年來對伊朗最大的常規襲擊。
The Islamic regime suffered another devastating setback this month when Syrian rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad, the dictator it propped up during Syria’s civil war. Some 4,000 Iranians were rushed out of the country as Iran lost a critical state ally in the Middle East and a vital land link to supply Hizbollah, its most important proxy. Israel may not have had a direct hand in Assad’s spectacular demise, but its pummeling of Iranian targets in Syria, and of Hizbollah, which had also helped shore up the regime, smoothed the rebels’ path to Damascus.
本月，敘利亞叛軍推翻了伊朗在敘利亞內戰期間扶持的獨裁者巴沙爾•阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)，這個伊斯蘭政權再次遭受毀滅性挫折。約4000名伊朗人撤離敘利亞，伊朗失去了在中東的一個重要盟友，也失去了爲其最重要的代理人真主黨提供補給的重要陸路通道。以色列可能沒有直接參與阿薩德的驚人滅亡，但它對伊朗在敘利亞的目標和真主黨（真主黨也曾幫助支援阿薩德政權）的猛烈打擊，使叛軍通往大馬士革的道路更加順暢。
Since the intelligence failure of Hamas’s horrific October 7 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people with 250 taken hostage, the degree of Israel’s military supremacy over its foes has become starkly clear. Netanyahu’s political fortunes have rebounded in tandem. After the Hamas assault, many forecast the end of his dominance of Israeli politics. However, he seems as entrenched as ever, his far-right coalition strengthened by the addition of another party, his polling numbers back to pre-October 7 levels.
自2023年10月7日哈馬斯發動可怕襲擊，造成1200人死亡、250人被劫持以來，以色列對敵人的軍事優勢變得非常明顯。內塔尼亞胡的政治命運也隨之回升。哈馬斯襲擊後，許多人預測他在以色列政治中的主導地位將結束。然而，他似乎依然穩固，他的極右翼聯盟因另一個政黨的加入而得到加強，民調回到了10月7日之前的水準。
Yet Israel’s battlefield gains have come at huge costs that will fester for years to come. None should mourn the end of Assad’s brutal regime, nor the weakening of the malign influence of Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s military successes will forever be tainted by the unspeakable suffering its offensives have brought to millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.
然而，以色列在戰場上的勝利是以巨大的代價換來的，這些代價將在未來幾年內持續惡化。沒有人會爲阿薩德殘暴政權的終結而哀悼，也沒有人會爲伊朗及其代理人的惡意影響被削弱而哀悼。但以色列的軍事成功將永遠被其進攻給加沙和黎巴嫩數百萬人帶來的難以言說的痛苦所玷汙。
Israel faces growing accusations of committing acts of genocide in Gaza, including a case at the International Court of Justice, in detailed reports by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch and among Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu has long courted. Not just the horrific death toll — more than 45,000, according to Palestinian officials — fuels such allegations, but also the siege Israel has laid to 2.3mn-strong Gaza; the restrictions on aid and water; and the destruction of civilian infrastructure that has rendered much of the strip uninhabitable.
以色列面臨著越來越多關於其在加沙實施種族滅絕行爲的指控，包括國際法院(International Court of Justice)的案件、國際特赦組織(Amnesty)和人權觀察(Human Rights Watch)的詳細報告以及包括沙烏地阿拉伯在內的阿拉伯國家的指控，而內塔尼亞胡長期以來一直在向沙烏地阿拉伯獻媚。助長這種指控的不僅是可怕的死亡人數——據巴勒斯坦官員稱超過45000人，還有以色列對230萬加沙居民的圍困、對援助和水資源的限制以及對民用基礎設施的破壞，這些破壞導致加沙地帶大部分地區無法居住。
Issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the International Criminal Court said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe he bears criminal responsibility for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare . . . and other inhumane acts”. Israel’s war and siege is a stain not just on Israel but also the US, which has allowed Netanyahu to act with impunity.
國際刑事法院在對內塔尼亞胡發出逮捕令時說，有「合理的理由」相信他對「以飢餓作爲戰爭方法的戰爭罪......和其他不人道行爲」負有刑事責任」。以色列的戰爭和圍困不僅是以色列的汙點，也是美國的汙點，因爲美國允許內塔尼亞胡逍遙法外。
After destroying Hamas’s military capacity and neutering regional threats to Israel, Netanyahu has no justification not to end the conflict and agree a deal to release the remaining hostages. But he and his far-right allies instead appear bent on occupying more territory on various fronts and keeping Israel in a perpetual state of conflict. Ultimately, Israel’s security can only be guaranteed with peace, and it has never been in a stronger position to achieve this — if only Netanyahu could see it.
在摧毀哈馬斯的軍事能力並解除對以色列的地區威脅之後，內塔尼亞胡沒有理由不結束衝突並達成釋放剩餘人質的協議。但他和他的極右翼盟友卻似乎執意要在各條戰線上佔領更多領土，讓以色列永遠處於衝突狀態。歸根結底，只有和平才能保障以色列的安全，而以色列從未像現在這樣有能力實現這一目標——只要內塔尼亞胡能意識到這一點。