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Dear reader,
親愛的讀者,
I have just undertaken my first trip overseas since the start of the pandemic, flying from London to sunny Spain. It is a good vantage point from which to assess the state of the European travel industry.
我剛剛進行了疫情爆發以來的首次海外旅行，從倫敦飛往陽光明媚的西班牙。這是評估歐洲旅遊業狀況的一個良好視角。
While my journey was unaffected by cancelled flights, lost bags or lengthy queues, not every traveller has been so lucky. Customers and shareholders in Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) were at the front of the queue on Tuesday as the airline filed for bankruptcy protection. The restructuring would not have an impact on service levels, the company said. But a pilots’ strike, which was blamed for the urgent need to restructure, could affect up to 30,000 customers.
雖然我的旅行沒有受到航班取消、行李丟失或排長隊的影響，但並不是每個旅行者都能這麼幸運。週二，斯堪的納維亞航空公司(SAS)申請破產保護，顧客和股東排在了最前面。該公司表示，重組不會對服務水準產生影響。但飛行員罷工被認爲是重組的迫切需要，可能會影響多達3萬名客戶。
Shares in SAS fell as much as 14 per cent in response. That leaves the company’s equity valued at just under $400mn, down from almost $2bn a year ago.
SAS股價應聲下跌14%。這使得該公司的股票價值略低於4億美元，低於一年前的近20億美元。
A sector that was previously hailed as one of the best ways to trade the pandemic recovery is going rapidly downhill.
一個先前被譽爲大新冠疫情復甦最佳途徑之一的行業，正在迅速走下坡路。
Customer demand is still high: pandemic-era travel restrictions have eased and travellers are booking holidays. In most countries (excluding China) passenger numbers have either returned to or surpassed 2019 levels. Bookings data suggest the trend will continue into the third quarter of the year.
客戶需求仍然很高：疫情時代的旅行限制已經放鬆，旅行者正在預訂假期。在大多數國家(不包括中國)，乘客人數已恢復或超過2019年的水準。預訂數據顯示，這一趨勢將持續到今年第三季度。
But for SAS pilots, British Airways’ ground crew and Ryanair’s cabin staff, the problem is pay. Airline staff who accepted cuts during the pandemic to help preserve jobs want to claw back those losses and be compensated for rising living costs.
但對於SAS飛行員、英國航空(British Airways)地勤人員和瑞安航空(Ryanair)的客艙工作人員來說，問題在於薪酬。在疫情期間接受裁員以保住工作的航空公司員工希望彌補這些損失，並獲得生活成本上漲的補償。
Along with higher wage bills, airlines are contending with more expensive fuel costs as the price of oil climbs. With interest rates rising, heavily indebted airlines must also consider the prospect of higher debt servicing charges.
隨著油價的攀升，航空公司不僅要應對更高的工資，還要應對更昂貴的燃油成本。隨著利率的上升，負債累累的航空公司還必須考慮更高的償債費用的前景。
As part of its restructuring, SAS hopes to cut $716mn in costs. It will also raise about $900mn in new equity with further plans to swap or pay down almost $2bn of liabilities — about one-third of the total. An existing $741mn of cash on hand will help to smooth the process. The current consensus is that SAS will yield a small operating profit by 2024.
作爲重組的一部分，SAS希望削減7.16億美元的成本。該公司還將透過發行新股籌集約9億美元資金，並計劃進一步置換或償還近20億美元的債務——約佔總負債的三分之一。現有的7.41億美元現金將有助於這一過程的順利進行。目前的共識是，SAS將在2024年之前實現少量運營利潤。
Unlike AirFrance-KLM, which is undergoing its own $2.3bn state-backed rights issue, the Swedish and Danish governments have already ruled out contributing to an SAS rescue plan.
與法航-荷航正在進行23億美元政府支援的配股不同，瑞典和丹麥政府已經排除了參與SAS救援計劃的可能性。
Elsewhere, debt and equity fundraisings over the past two years have kept airline bankruptcies to a minimum. Airlines have largely been able to hold on to the cash that has been raised.
在其他地方，過去兩年的債務和股權融資將航空公司破產率降到了最低。航空公司基本上能夠保住籌集到的現金。
The latest cash balances at IAG, easyJet and Ryanair stood at €8bn, £3.5bn and €3.6bn respectively. If growing fears of a recession in Europe prove true, these will be needed — particularly in the stagflation scenario that many are expecting.
國際航空集團(IAG)、易捷航空(easyJet)和瑞安航空的最新現金餘額分別爲80億歐元、35億英鎊和36億歐元。如果對歐洲衰退的日益擔憂被證明是真的，這些措施將是必要的——尤其是在許多人預期的滯脹情況下。
Airlines are only just expected to return to operating profit this year. Stress testing shows that interest cover for IAG and easyJet falls below expected operating earnings if interest costs double and ebit is one quarter less than current expectations.
預計航空公司今年纔剛剛恢復營業利潤。壓力測試顯示，如果利息成本增加一倍，且息稅前利潤比當前預期低四分之一，國際航空集團和易捷航空的利息覆蓋將低於預期的營業利潤。
A less indebted airline such as Ryanair would hold up better, with interest covered five times even in a stagflationary scenario. Along with better fuel hedges and growing market share, there is reason to think Europe’s best-performing airline will be able to hang on to its title.
像瑞安航空這樣負債較輕的航空公司的情況會更好，即使是在滯漲的情況下，其利息也能得到5倍的補償。加上更好的燃油對沖措施和不斷成長的市場份額，有理由認爲這家歐洲表現最好的航空公司將能夠保住自己的頭銜。
Fuel costs are already high and interest payments are likely to rise. Staffing overheads remain the only real lever for cost-conscious airlines. That does not bode well for shareholders or air passengers. Wish me luck for my return journey to London.
燃料成本已經很高，利息支付可能還會增加。對於注重成本的航空公司來說，人力成本管理仍然是唯一真正的槓桿。這對股東和乘客來說都不是什麼好兆頭。祝我回倫敦的路上好運。
Andrew Whiffin
Andrew Whiffin
Lex writer
Lex專欄作家
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