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Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the finances of two of Europe’s largest satellite operators as the rapid rise of Elon Musk’s Starlink deepens the pressure on the continent’s ailing incumbents.
投資者越來越擔心歐洲最大兩家衛星營運商的財務狀況，因爲伊隆•馬斯克的星鏈的迅速崛起加深了歐洲大陸境況不佳的老牌企業的壓力。
The cost of buying insurance against France’s Eutelsat and SES of Luxembourg defaulting on their bonds has soared to record highs, as investors fear the two will struggle to repay their debts, which together amount to about €7bn.
爲法國的歐洲通訊衛星公司(Eutelsat)和盧森堡的SES公司債券違約購買保險的成本已飆升至歷史新高，因爲投資者擔心這兩家公司將難以償還合計約70億歐元的債務。
Legacy satellite operators have struggled to adapt to the rise of new communication services from low Earth orbit, as their traditional, higher- orbit broadcasting businesses decline.
隨著傳統高軌廣播業務的衰落，老牌衛星營運商一直難以適應來自低地球軌道的新通訊服務的興起。
In just five years Musk has expanded Starlink to more than 6,000 satellites, more than 60 per cent of the spacecraft in orbit, serving some 130 countries. His company is also increasingly taking market share in the lucrative market for in-flight connectivity with airlines, including beating Eutelsat to win a contract with Air France.
在短短五年時間裏，馬斯克已將「星鏈」擴展到擁有6000多顆衛星，佔在軌航天器的60%以上，爲約130個國家提供服務。他的公司還在航空公司機上網路連接這一利潤豐厚的市場中佔據越來越多的市場份額，包括擊敗歐洲通訊衛星公司贏得與法國航空公司的合同。
Pressure on Eutelsat and SES is expected to intensify when Amazon’s Project Kuiper launches its broadband satellite service, expected later this year.
預計今年晚些時候亞馬遜的Project Kuiper將推出寬頻衛星服務，屆時歐洲通訊衛星公司和SES面臨的壓力將進一步加大。
“Europe’s incumbents are in danger of being left behind,” said one high-yield credit investor who has recently sold out of Eutelsat’s bonds, citing Starlink’s technological advances.
「歐洲老牌營運商有被甩在後面的危險，」一位高收益信貸投資者表示，他最近以星鏈的技術進步爲由拋售了歐洲通訊衛星公司的債券。
Musk’s relentless expansion of Starlink, alongside with the European duo’s sluggish response to the new low Earth orbit challenge, have driven down their share prices to record lows.
馬斯克對星鏈不遺餘力的擴張，以及這兩家歐洲公司對新的低地球軌道挑戰的遲緩反應，將他們的股價推低至歷史新低。
In response to the emerging competition, Eutelsat and SES have sought to consolidate, with Eutelsat snapping up the UK’s OneWeb in 2022 and SES buying Intelsat for $3.1bn last year.
爲了應對加劇的競爭，歐洲通訊衛星公司和SES曾尋求整合，前者於2022年收購了英國的OneWeb公司，後者去年以31億美元收購了Intelsat。
Credit investors have bought credit default swaps, derivatives that act like insurance contracts that pay out if a company reneges on its debts.
債權投資人已經購買了信用違約掉期(CDS)——作用類似於保險合同的衍生品，如果一家公司債務違約，就會賠付。
Spreads on five-year CDS on Eutelsat, which has debts of almost €2bn, have climbed more than 800 basis points to 1,220bp in the past six months. That implies that investors now give Eutelsat a 65 per cent chance of defaulting on its bonds.
Eutelsat負債近20億歐元，其五年期CDS的利差在過去六個月攀升了800多個基點，達到1220個基點。這意味著投資者現在認爲Eutelsat債券違約的可能性爲65%。
The equivalent CDS spreads for SES, which has about €5bn worth of debt made up mostly of euro-denominated bonds, has also hit an all-time high in recent weeks. On Thursday it touched 309bp compared with 100bp at the start of 2024, giving it a probability of default of 22 per cent.
SES的同類CDS利差在最近幾周也創下了歷史新高，該公司擁有價值約50億歐元的債務，其中大部分是歐元計價債券。本週四，該利差達到309個基點，而2024年初爲100個基點，違約機率爲22%。
Eutelsat said its low Earth orbit product “is a highly competitive global offering” and said it was “uniquely positioned” in the market. SES did not respond to a request for comment.
Eutelsat表示，其低地球軌道產品「是極具競爭力的全球產品」，並稱其在市場上「具有獨特優勢」。SES沒有回應置評請求。
Last month, Moody’s downgraded Eutelsat’s credit rating by two notches from Ba3 to B2, plunging it further into junk territory.
上個月，穆迪將Eutelsat的信用評級下調兩級，從Ba3降至B2，使其進一步陷入垃圾級。
The credit rating agency blamed the cut on Eutelsat’s takeover of the start- up OneWeb, which has far underperformed its own predictions. Last year Eutelsat said OneWeb’s revenues were barely half the target forecast at the time of the takeover, and Eutelsat downgraded its earnings outlook up to 2025.
穆迪將此次評級下調歸咎於Eutelsat對新創公司OneWeb的收購，後者的業績遠遠低於其自身的預測。Eutelsat去年稱，OneWeb的收入僅爲收購時預測目標的一半，Eutelsat還下調了其截至2025年的盈利展望。
Ernesto Bisagno, an analyst at Moody’s, said the downgrade in part reflected the lower earnings forecasts, increased competition “and the significant refinancing needs in 2027 at a time when its cost of funding has increased materially.”
穆迪分析師埃內斯托•比薩尼奧(Ernesto Bisagno)表示，評級下調在一定程度上反映了下降的盈利預測、競爭加劇，「以及2027年的大量再融資需求，屆時其融資成本已經大幅增加。」
SES’s debt is rated at BBB at Fitch and Baa3 at Moody’s, placing it just inside of investment-grade territory.
惠譽將SES的債務評級定爲BBB，穆迪將其評級定爲Baa3，將其置於投資級範圍之內。
“It’s just too hard to tell how that industry will play out with Starlink’s advances . . . Visibility of that threat is troublesome,” said another high-yield bond investor.
另一位高收益債券投資者表示：「很難說星鏈的進步將對該行業產生怎樣的影響.……這種威脅的可見性很麻煩。」
In December, the EU signed a €10.6bn deal to develop a European satellite network, with 61 per cent funded publicly and the rest coming from the SpaceRise industrial consortium, led by Eutelsat, SES and Spanish operator Hispasat.
去年12月，歐盟簽署了一項價值106億歐元的協議，開發一個歐洲衛星網路，其中61%由公共資金資助，其餘來自由Eutelsat、SES和西班牙營運商Hispasat領導的SpaceRise工業財團。
Eutelsat is counting on the project, called Iris², to help fund the development of its next generation of OneWeb satellites and is the project’s single biggest private sector investor, committing €2bn. The project will not be ready to operate until 2030 at the earliest.
Eutelsat指望這個名爲Iris²的項目爲其下一代OneWeb衛星的開發提供資金支援，它也是該項目最大的民營部門投資者，承諾投資20億歐元。該項目最早也要到2030年才能投入運營。
Despite Europe’s attempt to boost its own industry, Italy’s government, led by Giorgia Meloni, has entered preliminary talks with Musk’s SpaceX over a potential deal worth up to €1.5bn to provide secure military communications.
儘管歐洲試圖提振自己的衛星產業，但爲提供安全的軍事通訊，焦爾賈•梅洛尼領導的義大利政府已與馬斯克的SpaceX就一項價值高達15億歐元的潛在交易進行了初步談判。
The deal could involve using Starlink services for “encrypted data communications”, according to the Italian government.
據義大利政府稱，該交易可能涉及將星鏈服務用於「加密數據通信」。