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What impact will Donald Trump’s second coming have upon the world? The world is unpredictable. Trump is also unpredictable. His first presidency transformed the US and the world. His second is likely to have a deeper impact.
唐納•川普(Donald Trump)的「第二次降臨」將給世界帶來什麼樣的影響？世界是不可預測的。川普也是不可預測的。他的第一個總統任期改變了美國和世界。第二任期很可能產生更深遠的影響。
“From this day on,” Trump said in his inaugural address, “the United States of America will be a free, sovereign and independent nation.” We are so used to such expressions of self-pity from him and those around him that they have (almost) ceased to startle. Yet he is speaking of the world’s most powerful country, which has been at the forefront of innovation for one and a half centuries, and has shaped the world we live in. What on earth has prevented the US from being a free, sovereign and independent nation? The answer, it seems, is self-imposed obligations and voluntarily accepted constraints on its own power. Now, he suggests, the US will do whatever it wants. The US ceases to have pretensions to moral leadership: it proclaims itself another great power under the old motto: “might makes right”.
川普在就職演說中說：「從今天起，美利堅合衆國將成爲一個自由、具有主權和獨立的國家。」我們已經習慣了他和他身邊人這種自怨自艾的表達方式，以至於（幾乎）不再感到驚愕。然而，他說的是世界上最強大的國家，一個半世紀以來，這個國家一直走在創新的前沿，塑造了我們生活的這個世界。究竟是什麼阻止了美國成爲一個自由、具有主權和獨立的國家？答案似乎是自願承擔的義務和自願接受的對自身權力的限制。他認爲，現在，美國將爲所欲爲。美國不再自詡爲道德領袖：它宣稱自己是以「強權即公理」這一古老信條爲準則的另一個大國。
How does the world view this event? In “Alone in a Trumpian World”, the European Council on Foreign Relations has just published the results of surveys of public opinion across the world. They are fascinating. The people most disturbed by Trump’s second coming are citizens of its closest allies. Only 22 per cent of citizens of the EU, 15 per cent of the British and 11 per cent of South Koreans think his return is a good thing for their country. Meanwhile, 84 per cent of Indians, 61 per cent of the people of Saudi Arabia, 49 per cent of Russians and 46 per cent of the Chinese think it is good for their country. (See charts.)
世界如何看待這一事件？歐洲對外關係委員會剛剛在名爲《在川普的世界孤獨無助》的報告中公佈了對全球民意的調查結果。這些結果非常有趣。對川普的強勢迴歸感到最不安的是其最親密盟國的公民。只有22%的歐盟公民、15%的英國人和11%的南韓人認爲川普的迴歸對他們的國家是件好事。與此同時，84%的印度人、61%的沙烏地人、49%的俄羅斯人和46%的中國人認爲對他們的國家來說是好事。(見圖表）
This, suggests the report, signals “the publics’ embrace of a much more transactional world”. Yet, for close US allies it marks the end of the bonds of trust on which they rely. They can be free-riders on US power no longer. Maybe that serves them right. But this is about more than their mere dependence. Postwar Europeans really believed in the “liberal international order”. For them, its disappearance is a huge disappointment. The so-called “global south” mostly never did and so is more comfortable with Trump’s transactional approach.
報告認爲，這表明「公衆對一個更容易做交易的世界的欣然接受」。然而，對於美國的親密盟友來說，這標誌着他們所依賴的信任紐帶的終結。他們再也不能搭美國權力的便車了。也許這是他們自作自受。但其實他們不是隻想著依靠誰。戰後的歐洲人真的相信「自由國際秩序」。對他們來說，它的消失是一個巨大的失望。所謂的「全球南方」大多從未相信過，因此對川普的交易型做法更爲適應。
In two important areas — trade and the global environment — Trump’s approach will create special challenges. In the former, there was indeed a liberal order, built around global institutions that promoted trade liberalisation and provided substantial stability to the trade policy environment. This was of particular importance to trade-dependent small economies. As a result, the ratio of trade in goods to world output rose from 5 per cent at the end of the second world war to 15 per cent at the end of the cold war and 25 per cent on the eve of the global financial crisis. Since then it has stagnated.
在貿易和全球環境這兩個重要領域，川普的做法將帶來特殊的挑戰。在前者中，確實存在一個圍繞全球機構建立的自由秩序，這些機構促進了貿易自由化，併爲貿易政策環境提供了基本的穩定。這對依賴貿易的小型經濟體尤爲重要。結果是，貨物貿易佔世界產出的比例從第二次世界大戰結束時的5%上升到冷戰結束時的15%，並在全球金融危機爆發前夕上升到25%。自那以來便停滯不前。
How much damage will the tariff wars launched by Trump do? Trade has collapsed before. Will it do so again? Trump has the idea (one of his many silly ones) that foreigners will pay his tariffs. In fact, Americans will: he is not just a bully, but a stupid one. Pity poor Canada and Mexico. How then should victims respond? Retaliation, argues Harvard’s Dani Rodrik, is costly to those who embrace it. So, be cautious.
川普發起的關稅戰將造成多大的破壞？貿易以前也崩潰過。它會再次崩潰嗎？川普的想法（他的衆多愚蠢想法之一）是外國人將爲他的關稅買單。事實上，美國人將買單：他不僅是個霸道者，還是個愚蠢的霸道者。可憐的加拿大和墨西哥。那麼，受害者應該如何應對呢？哈佛大學的達尼•羅德里克(Dani Rodrik)認爲，報復對樂意採納的國家來說代價高昂。所以，要謹慎。
A second crucial area is climate change. This, say Maga Republicans, is a hoax. So, Trump declares that “we will drill, baby, drill”. In 2024, according to Nasa, global temperatures were 1.28C above its 1951-80 baseline, the highest ever recorded. Atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ continue to rise. So, it is to be “burn, baby, burn”. This indifference to the fate of the planet could prove devastating. That, too, creates huge concerns for the rest of the world.
第二個關鍵領域是氣候變化。Maga共和黨人稱這是一個騙局。因此，川普宣佈「我們將鑽吧，寶貝，鑽吧」。根據美國國家航空航天局的數據，2024年全球氣溫比其1951-80年基線高出1.28攝氏度，爲有記錄以來的最高值。大氣中的二氧化碳濃度繼續上升。因此，這將變成「燒吧，寶貝，燒吧」。這種對地球命運的漠不關心可能會帶來毀滅性後果。這也給世界其他地區造成了巨大的擔憂。
Meanwhile, will King Donald be able to bask in an American economic renaissance? It is unlikely, not least because the economy he has inherited is very far indeed from the disaster he ceaselessly proclaims it to be. On the contrary, the US economy has far outperformed its peers since the pandemic. In its January World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF states that “growth is projected to be at 2.7 per cent in 2025”. This is 0.5 percentage points higher than in its October forecast and a rate other high-income economies can only dream of. Trump should thank Joe Biden for this bequest.
與此同時，「國王唐納德」能沐浴在美國經濟復興的喜悅中嗎？不太可能，尤其是因爲他所繼承的經濟的確與他反覆宣稱的災難相去甚遠。相反，自新冠疫情以來，美國經濟的表現遠遠優於其他發達國家。國際貨幣基金組織在1月的《世界經濟展望更新》中指出，「預計2025年的成長率將達到2.7%」。這比其10月時的預測高出0.5個百分點，是其他高收入經濟體夢寐以求的增速。川普應該感謝喬•拜登的這份遺贈。
Given how good things are, the easiest way from here is down. In the short to medium run, the combination of a persistently loose fiscal policy with wild deregulation, the tariffs and the mass expulsion of immigrants is likely to reignite inflation. That would then trigger a destabilising conflict between the president and the Federal Reserve. Combined with a new bout of financial deregulation, this could trigger another financial crisis. This, in turn, would cause the collapse of a historically highly valued stock market, the one metric Trump cares about. Moreover, Trump inherits a fiscal deficit forecast by the Congressional Budget Office at 6.2 per cent of GDP this year, with debt in the hands of the public at 100 per cent and rising sharply. This is an unsustainable path. The hope seems to be that massive spending cuts will close the gap. But these will not be big enough and would come at the expense of his political supporters. Perhaps, in his second term, he no longer cares. But they surely will.
鑑於形勢如此之好，最容易發生的就是掉落。從短期到中期來看，持續寬鬆的財政政策與瘋狂放松管制、關稅和大規模驅逐移民相結合，很可能會重新引發通膨。這將引發總統與美聯準之間破壞穩定的衝突。再加上新一輪的放鬆金融監管，這可能會引發新一場金融危機。這反過來又會導致估值達到歷史高點的股市崩盤，而這正是川普所關心的指標之一。此外，根據美國國會預算辦公室的預測，川普繼承的財政赤字今年將達到國內生產總值的6.2%，公衆手中的債務將達到100%，而且還在急劇上升。這是一條不可持續的道路。當局似乎希望透過大規模削減開支來彌補缺口。但削減的規模將不能足夠大，而且還會以犧牲他的政治支持者爲代價。也許，在他的第二個任期，他不再在乎。但他們肯定會在乎。
Trump is unpredictable. Maybe, he will deliver a just peace in Ukraine and the Middle East. Maybe, he will put most of his threats and promises in the Oval Office waste paper basket, bask in his status and leave his country and the world in good shape. Substantial damage to the western alliance, world trade, the global environment, and US and global institutions seems more likely. Yet he proclaimed, in this speech, that: “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be.” It’s what we all want him to be, too.
川普是不可預測的。也許，他將在烏克蘭和中東實現公正的和平。也許，他會把自己大部分的威脅和承諾扔進橢圓形辦公室的廢紙簍，享受自己的地位，讓他的國家和世界保持良好的狀態。對西方聯盟、世界貿易、全球環境以及美國和全球機構造成巨大破壞的可能性似乎更大。然而，他在就職演說中宣稱：「我最值得驕傲的遺產將是成爲一個和平締造者和團結者。我想成爲這樣的人。」我們也都希望他成爲這樣的人。