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When UniCredit bought 9 per cent of Commerzbank this month, the Italian bank’s chief executive Andrea Orcel sought to reassure Berlin of his intentions by saying cross-border deals in the industry could not happen against the will of governments.
在義大利裕信銀行(UniCredit)本月收購德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)9%的股份時，該行首席執行長Andrea Orcel試圖向德國政府保證其收購意圖，稱行業內的跨境交易不會違背政府的意願。
Outside its home market, any bank needed the “support from local institutions”, he said, noting UniCredit “always entertained a dialogue with regulators, institutions and counterparts in Germany”.
他表示，在本土市場之外，任何銀行都需要「當地機構的支援」，並指出義大利裕信銀行「始終與德國的監管方、機構和同行保持對話。」
That dialogue appears to have broken down. On Monday, UniCredit said it was about to overtake the German government as Commerzbank’s biggest shareholder with a 21 per cent stake after taking a position — pending regulatory approval — on a further 11.5 per cent of the German lender’s stock.
這種對話似乎已經破裂。週一，義大利裕信銀行表示，在進一步收購德國商業銀行11.5%的股份後（尚待監管機構批准），其持股達到21%，即將超越德國政府，成爲德國商業銀行最大的股東。
In New York that day, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “Unfriendly attacks [and] hostile takeovers are not a good thing for banks and that is why the German government has clearly positioned itself.”
當天，德國總理奧拉夫•蕭茲(Olaf Scholz)在紐約表示：「不友好的攻擊[和]敵意收購對銀行來說不是一件好事，這也是德國政府明確自身定位的原因"。
What, if anything, can the German government, regulators and rival banks do to thwart Orcel’s ambitions to take over Commerzbank?
德國政府、監管機構和競爭對手銀行能採取什麼措施來挫敗Orcel收購德國商業銀行的野心？
What can Germany do?
德國能做些什麼？
German politicians across the political spectrum have been united in their condemnation of what they perceive as Orcel’s aggressive tactics. But the government has few tools to block a takeover bid.
德國各政治派別的政治家們認爲Orcel的策略咄咄逼人，予以一致譴責。但政府幾乎沒有可以阻止收購的手段。
Berlin had already said on Friday that it would no longer put its remaining 12 per cent stake up for sale. Instead, Orcel found another way to increase UniCredit’s stake, through derivative instruments.
柏林方面已於上週五表示，將不再出售其剩餘的12%股份。但Orcel找到了透過衍生工具增持義大利裕信銀行股份的方法。
The German government’s powers to shoot down takeovers were strengthened after robotics maker Kuka was acquired in 2016 by Chinese group Midea in an acrimonious takeover that fostered fears of a sellout of engineering expertise. But outside of the defence industry, the rules apply only to buyers from non-EU members.
2016年，中國企業美的集團以一種引起爭議的方式收購機器人製造商庫卡，引發了德國對工程專業知識出售的擔憂，此後德國政府打擊收購的權力得到了加強。但除國防工業外，這些規定僅適用於來自非歐盟成員國的買家。
UniCredit needs permission to lift its stake in Commerzbank above 10 per cent, but from its regulator, the European Central Bank, not Berlin.
爲將其在德國商業銀行的持股比例提高到10%以上，義大利裕信銀行需要獲得其監管方歐洲央行(ECB)而非德國政府的許可。
Mechthilde Wittmann, an MP for the opposition CSU party, said Scholz should “take the next plane to Rome and tell [Italian prime minister Giorgia] Meloni that this takeover can’t happen. We won’t agree to it”.
反對黨基社盟議員Mechthilde Wittmann表示，蕭茲應該「搭乘下一班飛機前往羅馬，告訴（義大利總理）梅洛尼，這次收購不可能發生。我們不會同意」。
Others, however, disagree. “I don’t see that the German authorities have any leverage,” said Hans-Peter Burghof, a banking expert at Hohenheim university.
然而，其他人持不同意見。霍恩海姆大學銀行業專家Hans-Peter Burghof表示：「我認爲德國當局沒有任何影響力」。
“UniCredit is a European bank and so European rules on competition, bank supervision and capital markets apply. And the German authorities don’t really have any say in the matter.”
「義大利裕信銀行是一家歐洲銀行，因此適用歐洲的競爭規則、銀行監管和資本市場規則。德國當局對此事並沒有發言權。」
Ministers were within their rights to express their opinion on a possible takeover, as Scholz did on Monday, “but it’s just a description”, said Burghof. “Yes, it’s a hostile takeover . . . and they can express their annoyance, but little more than that.”
Burghof表示：」部長們有權就可能的收購發表意見，正如蕭茲週一所做的那樣，「但這只是一種描述」。「是的，這是一次敵意收購……他們可以表達自己的不滿，但僅此而已。」
What can the ECB do?
歐洲央行能做些什麼？
The idea of a UniCredit merger with Commerzbank was initially welcomed within the ECB, which has long called for more cross-border consolidation in the sector.
歐洲央行最初對義大利裕信銀行與德國商業銀行的合併構想表示歡迎，長期以來一直呼籲加強銀行業的跨境整合。
But some at Europe’s top banking regulator are annoyed about what they regard as Orcel’s “aggressive” tactics, according to people familiar with their views.
但據知情人士透露，歐洲最高銀行監管機構的一些人對Orcel的「激進」策略感到惱火。
European rules on bank ownership — designed to prevent criminals and shady funds from getting control of a bank — are complex and bureaucratic.
歐洲關於銀行所有權的規定既複雜又官僚，因爲這些規定旨在防止犯罪分子和黑錢控制銀行。
Joachim Kaetzler, banking partner at law firm CMS Hasche Sigle, described them as “an avalanche of documents”.
CMS Hasche Sigle律師事務所的銀行合夥人Joachim Kaetzler形容其爲「雪崩般的檔案」。
However, “reasons to reject the application [by UniCredit to take its stake above 10 per cent] are highly unlikely to arise”, said Kaetzler, because the Italian bank was one of Europe’s largest and most profitable lenders and its top-ranking officials had been approved by the ECB.
然而，Kaetzler表示，「拒絕義大利裕信銀行申請將其股份提高到10%以上的理由幾乎不太可能出現」，因爲該義大利銀行是歐洲最大、最賺錢的銀行之一，其高層官員已獲得歐洲央行的批准。
Under the application rules, the ECB is required to make a decision within 60 days but can add another 30 days in complicated cases.
根據申請規則，歐洲央行需要在60天內做出決定，但複雜案例可以再延長30天。
With BaFin, Germany’s financial regulator, responsible for assembling the application to be submitted to the ECB, German bureaucrats in theory have scope to take a particularly rigorous approach — by requesting additional documents, for instance.
德國金融監管機構BaFin負責收集提交給歐洲央行的申請，理論上，德國官僚有空間採取特別嚴格的方法，例如要求提供額外的檔案。
“An ownership-control procedure can easily take six to 12 months,” said Kaetzler.
Kaetzler表示：「所有權控制程式很容易耗時6到12個月」。
What can other banks do?
其他銀行能做什麼？
Any bidder deemed preferable to UniCredit would have to secure support from the government.
任何被認爲比義大利裕信銀行更可取的競標人都必須獲得政府的支援。
The most obvious candidate is Deutsche Bank, which has discussed a move for Commerzbank several times before.
最明顯的候選者是德意志銀行，該行曾多次討論收購德國商業銀行。
Such a deal would mean Commerzbank — a crucial lender to the Mittelstand, the small and medium companies that form the backbone of the German economy — remained in domestic hands.
這一交易將意味著德國商業銀行—構成德國經濟支柱的中小型企業的關鍵貸款人—仍將掌握在德國國內手中。
However, it would result in a large number of job cuts and branch closures, which may be unpalatable to German voters and unions.
然而，這將導致大量裁員和分支機構關閉，可能讓德國選民和工會感到不快。
Deutsche is also not in the best position to buy Commerzbank, as it would have to pay in cash for shares owned by the government or in the open market.
德意志銀行也不具備收購德國商業銀行的最佳條件，因其必須以現金支付政府持有的股份或在公開市場上進行收購。
Doing so would disrupt plans to return €8bn to shareholders by 2025, which Germany’s largest lender paused earlier this year after taking a €1.3bn hit from a long-running lawsuit.
這樣做將打亂到2025年向股東返還80億歐元的計劃，這家德國最大的銀行在今年早些時候因長期訴訟而損失了13億歐元后暫停了這一計劃。
Deutsche Bank boss Christian Sewing said this month he was unfazed about a potential takeover of Commerzbank by UniCredit. “Competition is good for business”, he added.
德意志銀行首席執行長Christian Sewing本月表示，對義大利裕信銀行可能收購德國商業銀行並不擔心。他補充道：「競爭對業務有益。」
Other banks such as France’s BNP Paribas, Spain’s Santander and ING of the Netherlands could also be encouraged to make a bid.
法國巴黎銀行、西班牙桑坦德銀行和荷蘭國際集團等其他銀行也可能被鼓勵參與競購。
These banks do not have German operations of the size of UniCredit’s HypoVereinsbank, so such a combination would not benefit from the same synergies.
這些銀行在德國的業務規模不及義大利裕信銀行的HypoVereinsbank，因此合併後無法獲得同樣的協同效應。
Entering a bidding war with a rival holding a 21 per cent stake is another complication.
與持有21%股份的競爭對手展開競購戰是另一個複雜因素。
What can Commerzbank do?
德國商業銀行能做什麼？
Orcel unveiled his initial move on Commerzbank hours after the German bank said its chief executive Manfred Knof would leave by the end of 2025.
在德國商業銀行宣佈其首席執行長曼Manfred Knof將於2025年底離職數小時後，Orcel公佈了他對該銀行的初步舉措。
Commerzbank on Tuesday evening appointed chief financial officer Bettina Orlopp as its new chief executive to champion the lender’s standalone strategy and rally investor support.
德國商業銀行週二晚間任命首席財務長Bettina Orlopp爲新任首席執行長，負責支援該行的獨立戰略並爭取投資者的支援。
But even Commerzbank insiders who are sceptical about a deal acknowledge that it will be almost impossible to present a standalone strategy that is financially as attractive as a merger.
但即使是對交易持懷疑態度的德國商業銀行內部人士也承認，幾乎不可能提出一項與合併一樣具有財務吸引力的獨立戰略。
A combination with HypoVereinsbank would result in billions of euros of cost savings and economies of scale.
與HypoVereinsbank合併將節省數十億歐元的成本和規模經濟。
Commerzbank could come up with a poison pill to scupper the deal — for example by agreeing to sell its corporate bank to Deutsche Bank in exchange for a stake in the rival.
德國商業銀行可以採取「毒丸」策略破壞這筆交易，例如同意將其企業銀行出售給德意志銀行，以換取對手方的股份。
But people close to Commerzbank told the Financial Times that management “won’t do anything crazy” to derail a UniCredit bid if it came at the expense of the German lender’s franchise.
但與德國商業銀行關係密切的人士告訴英國《金融時報》，如果以犧牲該行特許經營權爲代價，管理層「不會做任何瘋狂的事情」來破壞義大利裕信銀行的收購要約。
The alternative may be to try to squeeze a generous takeover premium from Orcel, as well as guarantees to keep decision-making and a listing of the German operations in Frankfurt.
另一種選擇可能是試圖從Orcel那裏榨取豐厚的收購溢價，以及保證保留決策權和德國業務在法蘭克福上市。