尊敬的用戶您好，這是來自FT中文網的溫馨提示：如您對更多FT中文網的內容感興趣，請在蘋果應用商店或谷歌應用市場搜尋「FT中文網」，下載FT中文網的官方應用。
It is time to end the “fever”. That was how France’s president Emmanuel Macron explained his stunning decision on Sunday to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative polls after the far right won a crushing victory in European parliamentary elections. His pro-EU centrist alliance limped in to a distant second place.
是時候結束這種「狂熱」了。這就是法國總統埃馬紐埃爾•馬克宏(Emmanuel Macron)週日做出的解散國民議會(National Assembly)並提前舉行立法選舉的驚人決定的解釋。先前，極右翼在歐洲議會選舉中獲得壓倒性勝利。他的親歐盟中間派聯盟勉強排在第二位。
Before this weekend, France’s reckoning with the far right was scheduled for 2027 when Macron steps down. The campaign of Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National, to succeed him as president was looking increasingly unstoppable — but still years away. Now that reckoning, with grave implications for France’s democracy and the future of Europe, will come in less than a month.
在上週末之前，法國對極右翼的清算原本定於2027年馬克宏下臺之時。國民聯盟(Rassemblement National)領導人瑪麗娜•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)爲接替馬克宏擔任總統而開展的競選活動看起來越來越勢不可擋，但仍需數年時間。現在，這場對法國民主和歐洲未來具有嚴重影響的清算將在不到一個月的時間內到來。
Macron’s snap election is an extraordinarily risky gamble. His intention appears to be to shake French voters out of their feverish delusions about what the far right would be like in power. The choice between France’s mainstream parties and a nationalist, Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant group whose policies would plunge the country into conflict with the EU ought to be an obvious one. The French may indeed balk at installing an RN government. But too many are bitterly disillusioned with the other parties and contemptuous of Macron for comfort.
馬克宏的提前選舉是一場異常冒險的賭博。他的意圖似乎是要讓法國選民從對極右翼執政的狂熱幻想中清醒過來。在法國主流政黨和一個民族主義者、歐洲懷疑論者、反移民團體之間做出選擇應該是顯而易見的。法國人可能確實不願意建立一個國民聯盟政府。但有太多法國人對其他黨派失望透頂，對馬克宏嗤之以鼻，令人無法安心。
A second line of defence is to persuade the other parties to strike electoral pacts to maximise the chances of defeating RN candidates. But Macron has left precious little time for party leaders to thrash out a deal. The president has repeatedly invoked the need to uphold the cordon sanitaire against the far right at all costs, while sometimes neglecting it himself, as in the last parliamentary elections in 2022. He has also done much to demolish France’s traditional centrist parties, although they also have themselves to blame for their fading popularity. They are, understandably, deeply sceptical of his “après moi le déluge” approach.
第二道防線是說服其他黨派達成選舉協議，以最大限度地增加擊敗國民聯盟候選人的機會。但馬克宏留給政黨領袖們達成協議的時間已經不多了。總統一再強調必須不惜一切代價維護針對極右翼的防衛圈，但有時他自己卻忽略了這一點，比如在2022年的上屆議會選舉中。他還不遺餘力地摧毀法國傳統的中間派政黨，儘管這些政黨也要爲自己的聲望下降承擔責任。他們自然對他「我死之後，哪怕洪水滔天」的做法深表懷疑。
An unspoken part of Macron’s gamble is the prophylactic effect: if it ends up administering a mild dose of RN in government now, perhaps without an absolute majority, the hope is that it may inoculate French voters against a much more serious dose later, in the shape of Le Pen in the presidency.
馬克宏這場賭博的一個不言而喻的部分是預防效果：如果最終在當前政府中注入少量國民聯盟，也許不會獲得絕對多數，那麼希望這可以讓法國選民免受日後更大劑量的影響——即勒龐擔任總統。
As president, Macron could use his position to call out the excesses of an RN-led government. But what if such a government, with Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella as premier, was to moderate in government, as the hard-right Giorgia Meloni has done in Italy? Populist parties elsewhere have been tamed, to a degree, once faced with responsibilities of power (and Donald Trump showed even a chaotic spell for a populist in power does not prevent voters from wanting more). France’s electorate might then be prepared to entrust Le Pen with the presidency in 2027, without the checks on power that exist in Rome. This makes the risks of the far right in power higher in France than in other European countries.
作爲總統，馬克宏可以利用自己的地位來斥責以國民聯盟爲首的政府的過激行爲。但是，如果這樣一個由勒龐的28歲門徒喬丹•巴爾德拉(Jordan Bardella)擔任總理的政府在執政期間變得溫和，就像強硬右翼的焦爾賈•梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)在義大利所做的那樣呢？其他地方的民粹主義政黨一旦面臨權力責任，多多少少被馴服——唐納•川普的例子表明，即使民粹主義者執政期間出現混亂，也不會妨礙選民希望獲得更多權力。屆時，法國的選民可能會準備在2027年委任勒龐擔任總統，而不像羅馬那樣對權力進行制約。這使得極右翼在法國執政的風險高於其他歐洲國家。
Macron has few risk-free options at this stage. Waiting for the clock to tick down on his presidency, while his centrist government lacks a parliamentary majority, would turn him quickly into a lame duck. There is no succession plan. Whoever wants to replace him, from the political centre, will have to rebuild a winning electoral coalition. Nonetheless, precipitating a fresh vote is still a hazardous venture.
在現階段，馬克宏幾乎沒有無風險的選擇。在他的中間派政府缺乏議會多數席位的情況下，等待他的總統任期結束，會讓他很快變成一隻跛腳鴨。沒有繼任計劃。無論誰想從中間派接替他，都必須重建一個獲勝的選舉聯盟。儘管如此，引發一次新的選舉仍然是一次危險的冒險。
The cordon sanitaire is being stretched across Europe, as Sunday’s elections showed. Some nine EU governments have, or will soon have, the hard right inside or in support. France could be the tenth. With war raging in Europe, competitiveness declining and the urgent need to step up the green transition, the EU needs a France that is fully engaged. If Macron’s wager backfires, it may soon have the opposite.
正如週日的選舉所顯示的那樣，防衛圈正在整個歐洲延伸。約有九個歐盟國家的政府內部已經或即將出現強硬右翼勢力，或得到他們的支援。法國可能是第十個。在歐洲戰火紛飛，競爭力下降，以及迫切需要加強綠色轉型的情況下，歐盟需要一個全力以赴的法國。如果馬克宏的賭注適得其反，情況可能很快會出現相反的情況。