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Emmanuel Macron’s remark last week that sending western troops to Ukraine could not be ruled out was immediately slapped down by many European counterparts — notably German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Russia’s Vladimir Putin still seized on the French president’s statement to make his most explicit threat yet of nuclear conflict. On Tuesday, Macron said he stood by his comment, urging European allies not to be “cowards” now that “war is back on our soil”.
埃馬紐埃爾•馬克宏(Emmanuel Macron)上週表示，不排除向烏克蘭派遣西方軍隊的可能性，這一言論立即遭到了許多歐洲同行的抨擊，尤其是德國總理奧拉夫•蕭茲(Olaf Scholz)。不過，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普丁(Vladimir Putin)仍是抓住了法國總統的聲明，發出了迄今爲止最明確的核衝突威脅。週二，馬克宏表示，他堅持自己的言論，敦促歐洲盟友不要成爲「懦夫」，因爲「戰爭又回到了我們的土地上」。
The French president’s underlying message — that Nato members must be ready to do more to help Ukraine against resurgent Russian forces — is well founded. But this should be by sending more arms, not troops. His public talk of boots on the ground has wrongfooted allies and laid bare strategic divisions, particularly with Germany, over military assistance to Kyiv — just when a united front is needed.
法國總統傳達的基本資訊——北約(NATO)成員國必須準備好採取更多行動，幫助烏克蘭抵禦捲土重來的俄羅斯軍隊——是有充分根據的。但這應該是透過派遣更多的武器，而不是軍隊。他關於派遣地面部隊的公開言論讓盟友措手不及，並暴露了在向烏克蘭提供軍事援助問題上的戰略分歧，尤其是與德國的分歧——而此時正是需要統一戰線的時候。
French officials said Macron’s talk of troops was intended to introduce some ambiguity for Moscow over what Nato members might be ready to do, and he was referring to western forces carrying out non-combat functions behind the Ukrainian front lines. The French leader has a point that Ukraine’s allies have for too long allowed Putin a monopoly on threats of escalation.
法國官員表示，馬克宏談論軍隊的目的是讓俄羅斯對北約成員國可能準備做的事情產生一些模糊認識，而且他指的是在烏克蘭前線後方執行非戰鬥職能的西方軍隊。這位法國領導人的觀點是，烏克蘭的盟友長期以來一直允許普丁壟斷升級威脅。
The problem is that many counterparts have legitimate concerns that even limited troop deployments would put Nato on the path to direct confrontation with Moscow. Though they have stressed the need to aid Kyiv and asked voters to bear higher energy costs, many western leaders — not just Scholz — will fear that any talk of sending soldiers could turn sentiment against the war. It plays, too, into Moscow’s bogus narrative that this is a Nato-provoked conflict. It might also be misread by a conspiracy-minded Kremlin as evidence that western leaders are, indeed, plotting something broader.
問題是，許多西方領導人有理由擔心，即使是有限的部隊部署也會使北約走上與俄羅斯直接對抗的道路。雖然他們強調了援助烏克蘭的必要性，並要求選民承擔更高的能源成本，但許多西方領導人——不僅僅是蕭茲——都會擔心，任何關於派兵的言論都可能會讓民衆對戰爭產生反感。這也正中俄羅斯的下懷：這是北約挑起的衝突。這還可能被有陰謀論思想的克里姆林宮誤讀爲西方領導人確實在策劃更廣泛陰謀的證據。
With US arms deliveries held up by political blocks, and continuing shortfalls in European production, the priority must be to ensure Ukraine receives the weaponry it needs this year. This covers everything from scarce artillery shells to cruise missiles, fighters and air defence. Recent mutual accusations by France and Germany that the other is not doing enough have some substance, but are a fruitless distraction.
由於美國的武器交付受到政治阻撓，而歐洲的生產又持續不足，因此必須優先確保烏克蘭今年獲得所需的武器裝備。這涵蓋了從稀缺的砲彈到巡弋飛彈、戰鬥機和防空系統的方方面面。法國和德國最近相互指責對方做得不夠，這雖有一定實質內容，但卻只是徒勞。
Over the past week Macron appears, rightly, to have dropped objections to using EU funds to buy weaponry for Ukraine outside the block. His previous insistence that European cash should go only towards rebooting Europe’s defence industry has been overtaken by Ukraine’s urgent need. On Tuesday, he pledged that France would contribute to a Czech plan to buy 800,000 shells on the world market — and would allow the European Peace Facility, a joint EU fund, to finance part of it.
過去一週，馬克宏似乎明智地放棄了反對使用歐盟資金爲烏克蘭在歐盟以外購買武器的立場。他之前堅持認爲，歐洲的資金應該只用於重啓歐洲的國防工業，但烏克蘭的迫切需求已超過了這一點。週二，他承諾法國將爲捷克在世界市場上購買80萬枚砲彈的計劃提供資金，並將允許歐盟聯合基金歐洲和平基金(European Peace Facility)爲該計劃提供部分資金。
Scholz, for his part, should lift his opposition to sending Taurus missiles, which have a longer range than cruise missiles supplied by France and the UK and which Ukraine is crying out for. His objection that German support staff would have to accompany them to Ukraine was contradicted by military officers in a conversation that was embarrassingly eavesdropped on by Moscow. And though the chancellor worries Kyiv might use them to hit targets inside Russia, Ukraine has respected limits imposed by Britain and France on how it can use their missiles.
蕭茲則應取消反對派遣「金牛座」(Taurus)飛彈的立場，這種飛彈比法國和英國提供的巡弋飛彈射程更遠，而烏克蘭正急需這種飛彈。他曾反對德國的支援人員必須隨同飛彈前往烏克蘭，但在一次被俄羅斯尷尬竊聽的談話中，他的反對意見遭到了軍官們的反駁。雖然德國總理擔心烏克蘭會用這些飛彈打擊俄羅斯境內的目標，但烏克蘭一直遵守著英法兩國對其飛彈使用方式的限制。
Perhaps Macron’s most striking statement was that the “defeat” of Russia in Ukraine was now “indispensable to security and stability in Europe”. From a leader who called in 2022 for the west to avoid “humiliating” Moscow — and who has gone out of his way to understand and reason with Putin — this is a salutary message. Kyiv’s allies need a strategy to achieve this goal, without leading to escalation that spirals out of control.
馬克宏最引人注目的言論或許是，俄羅斯在烏克蘭戰爭中的「失敗」對「歐洲的安全與穩定是不可或缺的」。這些話能從一個曾在2022年呼籲西方不要「羞辱」俄羅斯——並努力理解普丁、與普丁講道理——的領導人口中說出，是一個有益的資訊。烏克蘭的盟友們需要制定一個戰略來實現這一目標，同時又不能導致局勢升級而失控。