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This week’s rally in global bond markets has shattered investors’ months-long assumption that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will remain higher for longer.
上週全球債券市場的反彈打破了投資者數月來的假設，即美國和其他地區的利率將在更長時間內保持在較高水準。
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs around the world, fell below 4 per cent for the first time since August. The policy-sensitive two-year yield, which closely tracks rate expectations, slipped to its lowest point since May.
被視爲全球借貸成本風向標的基準10年期美國國債收益率自8月以來首次跌破4%。對政策敏感、且密切跟蹤利率預期的兩年期國債收益率跌至5月以來的最低點。
Other government bond markets have also undergone a dramatic about-turn in recent days, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield sliding to its lowest level in nine months as its price shot higher.
其他政府債券市場最近幾天也經歷了劇烈轉變，德國10年期國債收益率跌至9個月來的最低水準，而其價格飆升。
The sharp moves came after the Federal Reserve gave its clearest indication yet that it would not raise borrowing costs again, and signalled that it expected three quarter-point cuts in 2024. Fed chair Jay Powell noted that the benchmark rate was “likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle”.
先前，美聯準(Fed)發出了迄今最明確的信號，表示不會再次提高借貸成本，並暗示預計2024年將降息三次，每次25個基點。美聯準主席傑伊•鮑爾(Jay Powell)指出，基準利率「可能處於或接近本輪緊縮週期的峯值」。
“Higher for longer is dead,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global markets strategist at Invesco. “Powell wrote the epitaph [this week].”
景順(Invesco)首席全球市場策略師克里斯蒂娜•胡珀(Kristina Hooper)表示：「較長時間保持在高位已死。鮑爾（本週）爲其寫下了墓誌銘。」
As recently as early November, markets had been bracing for an extended period of elevated borrowing costs as central banks continued their battle to tame inflation.
就在11月初，隨著各國央行繼續努力遏制通膨，市場還在爲長期的借貸成本上升做準備。
In recent weeks, signs of a cooling economy and softer price growth data had helped to ease those concerns — lifting bond and stock markets. But the Fed’s closely watched “dot plot” projections on Wednesday were seen by many as the most official sign yet that “higher for longer” was over.
最近幾周，經濟降溫和價格成長數據走軟的跡象，幫助緩解了這些擔憂，提振了債市和股市。但美聯準上週三備受關注的「點狀圖」預測被許多人視爲迄今最官方的信號，表明「較長時間保持在高位」已經結束。
By Friday, markets were reflecting investors’ expectations of six US interest rate cuts in 2024 — beginning as soon as March. Those predictions would take borrowing costs in the world’s biggest economy from a current range of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent down to roughly 3.9 per cent.
截至上週五，市場反映出投資者對美國將在2024年6次降息的預期——最早將於明年3月開始。這些預測將使全球最大經濟體的借貸成本從目前5.25%至5.5%的區間降至約3.9%。
“A dovish pivot from the Fed is a full-speed ahead signal for the bond market,” said Bob Michele, chief investment officer and head of the global fixed income, currency and commodities group at JPMorgan Asset Management.
摩根大通資產管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)全球固定收益、外匯和大宗商品部門首席投資官兼主管鮑勃•蜜雪兒(Bob Michele)表示：「美聯準的溫和轉向是債券市場全速前進的信號。」
While New York Fed president John Williams said on Friday that talk of rate cuts as soon as March was “premature”, his note of caution was not enough to halt the rally.
儘管紐約聯邦儲備銀行(New York Fed)行長約翰•威廉姆斯(John Williams)上週五表示，有關最早於3月降息的言論「爲時過早」，但他的警告不足以阻止股市上漲。
The upbeat narrative also persisted in Europe and the UK — where inflation has been far more stubborn than in the US — even as European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against the prospect of imminent rate cuts.
儘管歐洲央行行長克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)和英國央行(Bank of England)行長安德魯•貝利(Andrew Bailey)對即將降息的前景進行了反駁，但歐洲和英國也依然保持著這種樂觀論調。在歐洲和英國，通膨遠比美國頑固得多。
Buoyant investor sentiment also lifted stock markets this week, with Wall Street’s S&P 500 closing out its seventh straight week of gains and edging closer to a fresh record high.
投資者情緒高漲也提振了上週的股市，華爾街標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)結束了連續第7周的上漲，逼近歷史新高。
Some strategists noted that US inflation was still far from the Fed’s long-term target of 2 per cent — meaning that rates are unlikely to come down rapidly. The US headline consumer price index reading for November came in at 3.1 per cent — down from October’s figure of 3.2 per cent, and in line with consensus forecasts.
一些策略師指出，美國通膨率仍遠低於美聯準2%的長期目標，這意味著利率不太可能迅速下降。美國11月份總體消費者價格指數(CPI)爲3.1%，低於10月份的3.2%，符合共識預測。
But for Michael Kushma, chief investment officer of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley, “the Fed has switched its focus from inflation to growth”.
但在摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)廣泛市場固定收益業務首席投資官邁克爾•庫什馬(Michael Kushma)看來，「美聯準已將關注點從通膨轉向成長」。
If the Fed is satisfied with waiting for price growth to return to 2 per cent, he added, “there’s no reason to have too weak an economy in 2024. The Fed has decided that inflation is behaving, so off to the races we go”.
他補充說，如果美聯準對等待物價成長恢復到2%感到滿意，「那麼2024年的經濟就沒有理由過於疲軟了。美聯準已經認定，通膨情況在轉好，所以我們要出發了」。
The sharp drop in government bond yields this week has also translated into much lower debt funding costs for corporate borrowers. The average bond yield for junk-rated US companies has fallen to less than 8 per cent, according to an Ice BofA index, around levels last seen in February — with Thursday marking its biggest daily drop in 13 months.
上週政府債券收益率的大幅下降也使企業借款人的債務融資成本大大降低。根據Ice BofA指數，美國垃圾級公司債券的平均收益率已降至不到8%，接近2月份的水準，上週四更是創下了13個月以來的最大單日跌幅。
The spread or premium paid by risky borrowers over the US government also narrowed by a sizeable 0.33 percentage points on Thursday to 3.47 percentage points.
上週四，高風險借款人與美國政府之間的息差或溢價也大幅收窄0.33個百分點，至3.47個百分點。
Concerns have intensified this year that some of the lowest-rated companies on both sides of the Atlantic will struggle to refinance their debt in an environment of much higher funding costs, potentially sparking an uptick in defaults. Junk-rated US companies alone are staring down a $1.87tn maturity wall over the next five years, according to Moody’s.
今年，人們愈發擔心，在融資成本大幅上升的環境下，大西洋兩岸一些評級最低的公司將難以爲其債務進行再融資，這可能引發違約率上升。穆迪(Moody's)表示，未來5年，僅美國垃圾級企業就將面臨1.87兆美元的到期債務。
But “even though we haven’t seen one rate cut yet . . . There has been a significant easing in financial conditions that is giving companies breathing room,” said Invesco’s Hooper.
不過，景順的胡珀表示：「儘管我們還沒有看到一次降息……但金融環境已經明顯緩解，這給了企業喘息的空間。」
The prospect of cuts has more pronounced implications for floating-rate loan issuers than for fixed-coupon bond issuers, said Andrzej Skiba, head of Bluebay US fixed income at RBC Gam.
RBC環球資產管理(RBC GAM)的Bluebay美國固定收益主管安德烈•斯基巴(Andrzej Skiba)表示，降息前景對浮動利率貸款發行商的影響比對固定息票債券發行商的影響更明顯。
“Unlike in US high-yield bonds where it’s a marginal positive, in the leveraged loan space and private credit [space], it could make the difference between a company getting into trouble and not.”
他表示：「在美國高收益債券中，這只是一個微不足道的利好因素，而在槓桿貸款領域和私人信貸（領域），它可能決定一家公司是否會陷入困境。」
Still, he noted that a further slowing of the US economy could start to weigh on corporate profits.
不過，他指出，美國經濟進一步放緩可能開始對企業利潤構成壓力。
