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Contrition can be disarming. But Kwasi Kwarteng’s U-turn on the abolition of a 45p tax rate for high earners will not restore the UK’s fiscal credibility. The measure accounted for under 5 per cent of the £45bn package of unfunded tax cuts in the “mini” Budget 10 days ago.
幡然悔悟、從善如流本可以贏得人心。但誇西•克沃滕(Kwasi Kwarteng)在取消高收入者45%稅率問題上的180度大轉彎，不足以恢復英國的財政信譽。在10天前公佈的「迷你」預算(mini Budget)中，該措施在450億英鎊無資金支援的減稅計劃中所佔比例不到5%。
Moreover, the reverse ferret has proved a damaging thesis about the UK chancellor and Prime Minister Liz Truss. It is this: they lack the judgment to intuit the mood of markets or their own party.
此外，巨大反轉證明了關於英國財政大臣和首相利茲•特拉斯(Liz Truss)的一個破壞性論點。這就是：他們缺乏對市場或自己政黨情緒的直覺判斷。
Their original unforced error led to an extreme jump in gilt yields. The disarray is ominous. Markets are febrile. Modest bad news can trigger massive sell-offs, as US tech stocks have also shown.
他們最初的非被迫錯誤，導致了英國國債收益率的大幅飆升。這種混亂是不祥的。市場正在發燒。輕微的壞訊息可能引發大規模拋售，美國科技股的情況也證明了這一點。
The gyrations of the UK bond market are exceptional. But signs of stress are widespread. In the US, the Move (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) index rose to its second-highest level since 2009 last Wednesday. This index, derived from options on Treasuries, captures bond market volatility, much like the Vix index does for stocks.
英國債券市場的波動異常劇烈。但壓力的跡象普遍存在。在美國，美林期權波動率估算(Move)指數上週三升至2009年以來的第二高水準。該指數源自美國國債期權，能夠反映債券市場的波動，與Vix指數反映股市的波動非常相似。
The UK has made itself vulnerable to a battering from bond vigilantes. Kwarteng put the UK’s reputation at risk by dispensing with forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, firing the Treasury’s top official and implausibly targeting 2.5 per cent growth.
英國已使自己容易受到債券「義務警員」的打擊。克沃滕無視英國預算責任辦公室(Office for Budget Responsibility)的預測，解僱了英國財政部的重要官員，並將經濟成長目標定在令人難以置信的2.5%，這讓英國的聲譽面臨風險。
But he is right to point out that the UK has a lower debt burden than most other G7 countries. Its peers are swallowing the same toxic cocktail of high inflation, slowing growth and tightening monetary policy. For many, the fight against inflation is handicapped by the surge in the dollar.
但他指出英國的債務負擔低於大多數G7國家，這一點是正確的。其他國家也在吞下高通膨、成長放緩和貨幣政策收緊的鴆酒。對許多人來說，美元的飆升阻礙了對抗通膨的努力。
The war in Ukraine and tensions with China add to the uncertainties.
烏克蘭的戰爭和與中國的緊張關係增加了不確定性。
This is treacherous territory for investors. But there are opportunities too. High volatility can help global macro hedge funds, which try to anticipate moves across interest rates, currencies, equities and commodities. The HFRI Macro index is up 9 per cent this year.
對投資者來說，這是一個危險的領域。但也有機會。高波動性有助於全球宏觀對沖基金，它們試圖預測利率、匯率、股票和大宗商品的走勢。HFRI宏觀指數(HFRI Macro index)今年上漲9%。
Good quality shares with low indebtedness and high dividend yields should prove resilient. Value stocks outperform growth equities in periods of high inflation and rising bond yields, according to a UBS analysis of data going back to 1975.
負債低、殖利率高的優質股票應該具有彈性。瑞銀(UBS)對1975年以來數據的分析顯示，在高通膨和債券收益率上升時期，價值型股票的表現優於成長型股票。
The price of 30-year gilts is down nearly a third over the past year. The FTSE 100 has fallen by less than a tenth as much. That is not the normal pattern. As markets move further into uncharted territory, there will be more nasty surprises.
30年期英國國債的價格在過去一年下跌了近三分之一。富時100指數的跌幅不到英國的十分之一。這不是正常的模式。隨著市場進一步進入未知領域，將出現更多令人不快的意外。