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If physicians make the worst patients, Dr Copper is suffering. Said to offer a prognosis on the world’s economic health, copper’s price has dropped more than a third since early March. The red metal’s vital role in the impending energy transition seems to have lost its urgency. A good long-term prognosis does not prevent further falls in the short term.
如果醫生是最糟糕的病人，那麼「銅醫生」就是最慘的那位。據說可以對全球經濟健康狀況做出預測的銅價，自3月初以來已下跌逾三分之一。這種紅色金屬在即將到來的能源轉型中扮演的重要角色似乎已經失去了緊迫性。良好的長期預言，並不能阻止短期內的進一步下跌。
Copper’s long-term positives are legion. For one, supply dwindles each year as the percentage of copper in mined ores diminishes, raising costs. Economies shifting away from fossil fuels also require more copper. Wiring electric cars and buses — hybrid and full battery — will require 1.2mn tonnes of copper in 2025. That is more than double the amount needed last year, says the International Copper Association. World consumption is about 24mn tonnes.
銅的長期利好因素很多。首先，隨著銅在開採的礦石中的比例減少，供應量每年都在減少，從而提高了成本。擺脫化石燃料的經濟也需要更多的銅。爲電動汽車和公共汽車佈線--混合動力和全電池--在2025年將需要120萬噸銅。國際銅業協會表示，這比去年需要的數量多了一倍。世界消費量約爲2,400萬噸。
But the long term matters little to those losing money in copper miners now. London-listed Chilean copper miner Antofagasta trades on an enterprise value to ebitda multiple of just four times. That is at decade lows, never mind that the underlying commodity sits at only the midpoint of its own 10-year range.
但長期來看，對那些目前在銅礦行業虧損的人來說，影響不大。在倫敦上市的智利銅礦商Antofagasta，其企業價值與ebitda之比僅爲4倍。這是10年來的低點，儘管大宗商品價格僅處於其10年波動區間的中點。
The price of copper has fallen near the long-term economic price of roughly $3 per pound, around which the traded value fluctuates. Six years ago, notes Tom Price at Liberum, analysts would have pointed to that price as providing an incentive to production. Back then, China’s economy also had slowed sharply and its property market looked in serious trouble. Copper touched $2 and rebounded. See that as a worst-case scenario.
銅的價格已經跌至長期經濟價格（大約每磅3美元）附近，交易價值在這個價格附近波動。Liberum的湯姆•普萊斯(Tom Price)指出，六年前，分析師們會認爲這一價格爲生產提供了動力。當時，中國的經濟也急劇放緩，其房地產市場看起來有嚴重問題。銅觸及2美元並反彈。那被看作是最壞的情況。
Even so, that suggests copper has further to fall this year. It may explain the growing net short positions of copper traders as reported by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That net sell position has been larger in recent history, but not by much more. Keep monitoring the patient’s vital signs. Copper’s sell-off has not finished.
即便如此，這也表明今年銅價還會進一步下跌。這或許可以解釋美國商品期貨交易委員會報告中銅交易商淨空頭頭寸不斷成長的原因。在最近的歷史中，這種淨拋售頭寸要大得多，但也不會多太多。持續監測病人的生命體徵。銅的拋售還沒有結束。