Are you still watching? Netflix and the future of streaming | 串流媒體的泡沫即將破滅? - FT中文網
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17週年大視野精選
【高階限免】Are you still watching? Netflix and the future of streaming
串流媒體的泡沫即將破滅?

The streaming company』s fall in subscribers is a moment of reckoning for media groups pouring billions into online platforms | 對於向在線平臺投入數十億美元的媒體集團來說,Netflix訂戶數量的下降是一個清算時刻。

It is a basic formula in the television business: make a hit show, renew it and lock in ever bigger audiences. But Netflix, which has spent more than 20 years upending the rules of the entertainment business, may have found a way to defy even this convention.
這是電視業的一個基本公式:製作一個熱門節目,更新它並鎖定越來越多的觀衆。但是,花了20多年時間顛覆娛樂業規則的Netflix公司,可能已經找到了一種方法,甚至可以挑戰這種慣例。
This spring the streaming service will roll out the latest, highly awaited instalments of two of its most popular series, Ozark and Stranger Things. Yet instead of a boost to its subscriber base, Netflix said this week it expected to lose about 2mn paying customers in the coming months, thanks to a combination of intensifying competition, a maturing US market and its decision to increase prices at a moment when consumers are coping with rising inflation.
今年春天,這家串流媒體服務商將推出其最受歡迎的兩部電視劇《歐扎克》(Ozark)和《怪奇物語》(Stranger Things)的最新一季,備受期待。然而,Netflix本週表示,由於競爭的加劇、美國市場的成熟以及在消費者應對通膨上升的時刻決定提高價格,它的用戶羣非但沒有得到提升,反而預計在未來幾個月內會失去約200萬付費用戶。

Battle of the streamers: Amazon vs Apple

Amazon Prime Video

Cost: $14.99 per month

Subscribers: 175mn (estimated as April 2022)

Hits include: The Marvellous Mrs Maisel, Reacher, Good Omens

Apple TV+

Cost: $4.99 per month

Monthly users: 20mn (estimated as July 2021)

Hits: Oscar winner Coda, Ted Lasso, The Morning Show, Severance

串流媒體之戰:亞馬遜vs蘋果

亞馬遜Prime影片

費用:每月14.99美元

訂戶:1.75億(2022年4月估計值)

熱門劇目包括: The Marvellous Mrs Maisel, Reacher, Good Omens

蘋果電視+

費用:每月4.99美元

月用戶:2000萬(2021年7月估計)

熱門:奧斯卡獎得主《健聽女孩》(Coda),《足球教練泰德·拉索》(Ted Lasso),《早間秀》(The Morning Show),《人生切割術》(Severance)

After years of bending Hollywood to its will, Netflix finally fell to earth this week as it revealed that its blistering, decade-long streak of subscription growth had come to an end. Its share price fell almost 40 per cent, leaving its market cap at about $97bn — down from $300bn in November.
在多年讓好萊塢屈從於自己的意願之後,Netflix終於在本週迴歸現實。該公司透露,其長達10年的訂閱量成長勢頭已經結束。該公司股價下跌近40%,市值從去年11月的3000億美元降至約970億美元。
The news served as a gut-check for the streaming industry that has grown in Netflix’s wake. The company’s extraordinary success inspired many of America’s largest media conglomerates to launch or buy their own streaming platforms, including Disney’s Hulu and Disney Plus; Warner Bros Discovery’s HBO Max; NBCUniversal’s Peacock and Paramount’s Paramount Plus. Tech groups Amazon and Apple also launched their own streaming services and content studios in a bid to emulate Netflix’s groundbreaking model.
這一訊息對緊隨Netflix之後發展起來的串流媒體行業來說,是一次勇氣的考驗。該公司的非凡成功激發了美國許多最大的媒體集團推出或購買自己的串流媒體平臺,包括迪士尼的Hulu和迪士尼+;華納兄弟探索頻道的HBO Max;NBC環球的Peacock和派拉蒙的派拉蒙+。科技集團亞馬遜(Amazon)和蘋果(Apple)也推出了自己的串流媒體服務和內容工作室,試圖效仿Netflix的開創性模式。
That model transformed the television and movie industries and launched a fiercely competitive war for subscribers. But the streaming industry’s growth rested on the assumption that there is a global market of up to 1bn households willing to pay for services. Now, some analysts say the actual market may be far smaller — and that it is time for a rethink of the streaming business that Netflix pioneered.
這種模式改變了電視和電影行業,並引發了一場激烈的訂戶爭奪戰。但串流媒體行業的成長建立在一個假設之上,即全球市場上有多達10億家庭願意爲服務付費。現在,一些分析師表示,實際市場可能要小得多,是時候重新思考Netflix開創的串流媒體業務了。
Netflix’s subscriber warning was “almost like an acknowledgment . . . that this isn’t that great of a business,” said Michael Nathanson, an analyst at MoffettNathanson and a longtime sceptic of the Netflix model. “It makes you really wonder if the media companies should roll back some of their ambition to be like Netflix.”
Netflix的訂戶預警「幾乎就像承認……這不是一項偉大的業務,」長期以來一直對Netflix模式持懷疑態度的MoffettNathanson分析師邁克爾·內桑森(Michael Nathanson)說。「這讓你真的想知道,媒體公司是否應該降低一些效仿Netflix的雄心。」

The content arms race

內容軍備競賽

The grim Netflix results appeared to signal the end of a lavish, experimental era of streaming characterised by fast growth, unrestrained spending and a healthy dose of hubris.
Netflix慘淡的業績似乎標誌着一個奢侈、試驗性的串流媒體時代的結束,這個時代以快速成長、不受限制的支出和適度的傲慢爲特徵。

Battle of the streamers: Netflix vs Disney

Netflix

Cost: $9.99

Subscribers: 221mn (as March 2022)

Hits include: Bridgerton, Stranger Things, Anatomy of a Scandal

Disney+

Cost: $7.99

Subscribers: 130mn (as Jan 2022)

Hits include: Marvel and Star Wars movies and TV shows, Disney and Pixar catalogue, Fox TV shows

串流媒體之戰:Netflix vs 迪士尼

Netflix

費用:9.99美元

訂戶:2.21億(截至2022年3月)

熱門劇目包括: 《布里奇頓》(Bridgerton),《怪奇物語》,《醜聞剖析》(Anatomy of a Scandal)

迪士尼+

費用:7.99美元

訂戶:1.3億(截至2022年1月)

熱門包括:漫威和星球大戰的電影和電視節目,迪士尼和皮克斯的目錄,福克斯電視節目

When Netflix launched its streaming service in the US in 2007, it was positioned as a new format that would free viewers from the stale conventions of mainstream television and the steep costs and rigid schedules of premium cable.
2007年,當Netflix在美國推出其串流媒體服務時,它被定位爲一種新的形式,可以將觀衆從主流電視的陳舊慣例以及付費有線電視的高昂費用和僵化時間表中解放出來。
Initially Netflix offered subscribers access to pre-existing movies and TV shows licensed from other creators. But in 2012, the same year it launched in the UK, it began developing its own content, scoring an early hit with the Washington political drama House of Cards. Netflix upended the traditional model of television by releasing all its episodes at once, rather than week by week, so viewers could “binge-watch” entire series in one sitting.
最初,Netflix爲用戶提供了從其他創作者那裏獲得授權的現有電影和電視節目。但在2012年,也就是它在英國推出的同年,它開始開發自己的內容,並透過華盛頓的政治劇《紙牌屋》獲得了早期的成功。Netflix顛覆了傳統的電視模式,一次性發布所有影集,而不是逐周發佈,因此觀衆可以一次性「刷完」整個系列。
The platform proved wildly successful. In the 10 years since, it has reached almost 222mn subscribers in 190 countries, up more than 750 per cent, and it became profitable for the first time late last year.
這個平臺被證明是非常成功的。在此後的10年裏,它在190個國家擁有近2.22億用戶,成長超過750%,並在去年年底首次實現盈利。
Netflix’s rise was aided by a long period of easy monetary policy and a historic bull market run, allowing the company to spend heavily so long as investors believed in the strategy. In an environment of low interest rates, investors searching for yield happily purchased Netflix bonds, funding the company’s spending spree on content.
Netflix的崛起得益於長期的寬鬆貨幣政策和歷史性的牛市行情,只要投資者相信這一策略,該公司就可以投入巨資。在低利率環境下,尋求收益的投資者愉快地購買了Netflix的債券,爲該公司在內容方面的支出提供了資金。
From 2018 through 2021, Netflix poured $55bn into television shows and movies as it raced to compete with major networks and Hollywood studios. Netflix’s push triggered an industry-wide land grab in which every company had to spend big to win. In 2019, Amazon splashed out $1bn on a single TV show — an adaptation of The Lord of the Rings said to be the most expensive show in history.
從2018年到2021年,Netflix在電視節目和電影上投入了550億美元,與各大電視網和好萊塢電影公司展開競爭。Netflix的努力引發了全行業的土地爭奪戰,每家公司都必須投入巨資才能取勝。2019年,亞馬遜在一部電視劇上就花了10億美元——一部根據《指環王》改編的電視劇據說是有史以來最昂貴的電視劇。
“One of the reasons [everyone] invested so heavily [from 2017- 2019] was the theory that for the next two or three years, it was all about acquiring subscribers,” said the former head of a big streaming service. “That window of time was when people were going to make the switch. You had to get them. Netflix knew it.”
一家大型串流媒體服務公司的前負責人表示:「(所有人)在(2017- 2019年)進行如此大規模投資的原因之一是,有一種理論認爲,未來兩三年,一切都是爲了獲取用戶。這段時間正是人們打算轉變的時候。你必須得到他們。Netflix知道。」
But the content arms race has only spiralled, as new, deep-pocketed players entered the market and people stuck at home during the pandemic boosted viewership numbers. US media groups are together expected to spend upwards of $100bn on content this year. Netflix alone accounts for $17bn of that.
但隨著財力雄厚的新玩家進入市場,以及疫情期間被困在家裏的人提高了收視率,內容軍備競賽只會加劇。預計美國媒體集團今年在內容上的支出總計將超過1000億美元。僅Netflix一家就貢獻了170億美元。
These sums are “historic [and] precedent-setting”, says Tom Nunan, professor at UCLA’s School of Theater, Film and Television, and executive producer of the Oscar-winning film Crash. “These are the types of numbers more associated with the Department of Defence. From single companies like these it’s almost unimaginable — but the numbers are certainly unsustainable.”
加州大學洛杉磯分校(UCLA)戲劇、電影和電視學院教授、奧斯卡獲獎影片《撞車》(Crash)的執行製片人湯姆•努南(Tom Nunan)表示,這些數字「具有歷史意義,開創了先例。這些超大的數字,更像是和國防部相關的數字。單就這些公司而言,這幾乎是不可想像的——但這樣的數字肯定是不可持續的。」

Investors change channels

投資者切換頻道

Until recently, Wall Street was cheering the lavish spending on streaming. After Disney unveiled a slate of Disney Plus programming based on Marvel and Star Wars properties in December 2020, for example, its stock briefly hit a record high.
直到最近,華爾街還在爲串流媒體上的鉅額支出歡呼。例如,在迪士尼於2020年12月推出一系列基於漫威和《星球大戰》的迪士尼+節目後,其股票一度創下歷史新高。
But the sentiment has now changed. A canary in the coal mine moment for the streaming industry came in February this year, when Paramount executives announced big investments into their Paramount Plus streaming service and saw their share price plummet almost 20 per cent the following day.
但現在這種情緒已經改變。今年2月,串流媒體行業的一個「金絲雀時刻」出現了,當時派拉蒙(Paramount)的高階主管宣佈對其串流媒體服務派拉蒙+ (Paramount Plus)進行大筆投資,次日股價暴跌近20%
Wall Street was unconvinced then that a shift to streaming would improve Paramount’s bottom line. But the Netflix announcement this month seemed to confirm something for investors: that no matter how great the programming, it is unlikely that the streaming industry will ever generate the kinds of profits that television and film groups made in the pre-streaming era.
華爾街當時並不相信轉向串流媒體會提高派拉蒙的利潤。但Netflix本月的聲明似乎向投資者證實了一件事:無論節目多麼精彩,串流媒體行業永遠都不太可能產生電視和電影集團在串流媒體出現前時代所獲得的那種利潤。
‘Stranger Things’: Netflix will roll out the latest instalment of the hit series this spring, but the streaming service still expects to lose about 2mn paying customers in the coming months
《怪奇物語》(Stranger Things): Netflix將在今年春天推出這部熱門影集的最新一季,但這家串流媒體服務公司預計在未來幾個月仍將失去約200萬付費用戶
“It’s absolutely a lesser economic model [than cable television],” said the former head of a big streaming service. “The pricing you have to get to in order to duplicate the [cable] market is astronomical.”
一家大型串流媒體服務的前負責人說:「這絕對是一種[比有線電視]更差的經濟模式。爲了複製[有線電視]市場,你必須達到的定價是個天文數字。」
Netflix announced a number of measures this week to try to weather the slowdown in subscriber numbers. During Tuesday’s video call with investors, Spencer Neumann, Netflix chief financial officer, said the company would “pull back on some of our spending growth”, though company officials say it will continue to outspend its rivals in the industry on making new films and series.
Netflix本週宣佈了一系列措施,試圖應對訂戶數量下降的影響。在週二與投資者的影片電話會議上,Netflix首席財務長斯賓塞•諾伊曼(Spencer Neumann)表示,公司將「削減部分支出成長」,但公司官員表示,公司在製作新電影和電視劇方面的支出將繼續超過業內競爭對手。
The company will also lift its long-stated opposition to advertising on the Netflix platform, with Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings suggesting a cheaper, ad-supported service could be available in a year or two.
Netflix還將取消其長期以來反對在Netflix平臺上投放廣告的立場。Netflix聯合創辦人利德•哈斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)表示,一種更便宜、由廣告支援的服務可能會在一兩年內出現。
“I’ve been against the complexity of advertising and a big fan of the simplicity of subscription,” Hastings said on Tuesday. “But as much as I’m a fan of that, I’m a bigger fan of consumer choice.”
哈斯廷斯週二表示:「我一直反對廣告的複雜性,但我非常喜歡訂閱的簡潔性。雖然我很喜歡這個,但我更喜歡消費者的選擇。」
A scene from Amazon’s ‘The Lord of the Rings’. Netflix’s push triggered an industry-wide land grab during which Amazon spent $1bn on the TV show — said to be the most expensive in history
亞馬遜出品的《指環王》中的一個場景。Netflix的努力引發了全行業的土地爭奪戰,在此期間,亞馬遜在這部電視劇上花費了10億美元,據說是有史以來最昂貴的
But the biggest improvement Netflix needed to make, Hastings indicated, was improving the quality of its programming — the side of the business overseen by co-chief executive Ted Sarandos.
但哈斯廷斯表示,Netflix需要做的最大改進是提高節目質量——這是由聯席首席執行長泰德·薩蘭多斯(Ted Sarandos)監管的業務方面。
Analysts agree. “Netflix should be creating significantly more must-see TV series and movies that become ongoing franchises,” Rich Greenfield, an analyst at LightShed, wrote in a research note this week. “Netflix’s content, especially its English-language content, is simply not resonating relative to the level of spend.”
分析師同意。LightShed的分析師裏奇·格林菲爾德(Rich Greenfield)在本週的一份研究報告中寫道:「Netflix應該創造出更多必看的電視劇和電影,成爲持續的特許經營。Netflix的內容,尤其是英語內容,與支出水準相比根本沒有達到標準。」
This is where Netflix is facing the stiffest competition from its rival streaming services run by long-established content creators HBO, Disney, NBCUniversal and Paramount — not to mention wealthy Amazon and Apple, who are unlikely to need to rein in spending any time soon.
在這方面,Netflix正面臨來自老牌內容創造者HBO、迪士尼、NBC環球和派拉蒙等串流媒體服務競爭對手的最激烈競爭,更不用說富可敵國的亞馬遜和蘋果了,它們近期不太可能需要控制支出。
Sarandos, who has worked hard to weave Netflix into the fabric of Hollywood, sounded defensive this week about the need to improve its programming. He claimed that Netflix films such as Don’t Look Up, Red Notice and Adam Project are among “the most popular and most watched movies in the world” (though, as the company does not release viewing figures, investors will have to take his word for it).
薩蘭多斯一直在努力將Netflix融入好萊塢,本週他對Netflix改進節目的必要性表示了捍衛。他聲稱,Netflix的電影如《不要抬頭》、《紅色警告》和《亞當計劃》是「世界上最受歡迎和觀看次數最多的電影」(不過,由於公司不公佈觀看數據,投資者無法從其他地方覈實他的話)。
Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings has said a cheaper, ad-supported service could be available in a year or two to help stem the loss of subscribers
Netflix聯合創辦人利德•哈斯廷斯表示,一到兩年後,Netflix可能會推出一種更便宜的、由廣告支援的服務,以幫助遏制訂戶的流失
He reminded investors that the company was still the new kid on the block in terms of content creation. “We’ve been doing this for a decade,” he said. “That’s about 90 years less time than all of our competitors have been at it.”
他提醒投資者,在內容創作方面,該公司仍是一個新手。「我們做這個業務只有十年,」他說。「這比我們所有競爭對手所花的時間都少了大約90年。」
But Wall Street may have run out of patience. Already, some analysts are urging the company’s rivals to rethink their spending on streaming. Noting that Sony has been making money by selling its films and TV shows to streaming companies — the so-called “arms dealer” strategy — Greenfield suggested that some of the traditional studios consider giving up on streaming and become content suppliers instead.
但華爾街可能已經失去了耐心。一些分析人士已經在敦促該公司的競爭對手重新考慮在串流媒體上的支出。格林菲爾德注意到,索尼一直在透過向串流媒體公司出售其電影和電視節目來賺錢--即所謂的「軍火商」戰略--他建議一些傳統電影公司考慮放棄串流媒體,轉而成爲內容供應商。
“While it feels hard to fathom abandoning streaming ambitions with so much capital committed to original streaming programming over the next several years, we wonder if that is the hard decision management teams such as NBCUniversal and Paramount should make?” Greenfield wrote.
格林菲爾德寫道,「在未來幾年裏,在已經投入這麼多資金用於原創串流媒體節目的情況下,很難想像放棄串流媒體,但我們想知道,這是否是NBC環球和派拉蒙等管理團隊應該做出的艱難決定?」
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