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It is a truism that US vice-presidential debates rarely affect the electoral outcome. After Tim Walz’s lacklustre showing against JD Vance on Tuesday night, Democrats will be praying that still holds.
美國副總統辯論很少影響選舉結果是不爭的事實。在週二晚上蒂姆•沃爾茲(Tim Walz)對陣JD•萬斯(JD Vance)的平淡表現之後，民主黨人將祈禱這一點仍然成立。
Political betting site Polymarket gave Walz a 70 per cent chance of winning at the start of the debate. By the end he was at just 33 per cent. It will be some consolation that the TV viewing numbers are likely to be far lower than the audience of almost 70mn that tuned into Kamala Harris’s encounter with Donald Trump last month.
政治博彩網站Polymarket在辯論開始時給予沃爾茲70%的勝算。到辯論結束時，他的勝算只剩下33%。對他來說，有些安慰的是，電視觀衆人數可能遠低於上個月卡瑪拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)與唐納•川普(Donald Trump)對決時的近7000萬觀衆。
Either way, the Vance-Walz debate was probably the last of the 2024 presidential campaign. Trump has shown no interest in agreeing to Harris’s call for a second encounter, understandable given how much blood she drew in their first.
無論如何，範斯-沃爾茲辯論可能是2024年總統競選的最後一場。川普對哈里斯呼籲進行第二次對決沒有表現出任何興趣，考慮到她在第一次辯論中對川普取得了多大的勝利，這是可以理解的。
In terms of how America votes on November 5, Tuesday’s “veep debate” may not even rank as the second-most impactful event of the day. The first was Iran’s missile attack on Israel and the threat of a wider Middle Eastern war. If sustained, the jump in crude oil on Tuesday will feed into higher US fuel prices and hit consumer sentiment, which would harm Harris. Any impression of Middle East chaos is also likely to play into Trump’s hands.
就11月5日美國的投票方式而言，週二的「副總統辯論」甚至可能排不上當天第二大最具影響力的事件。首先是伊朗對以色列的飛彈襲擊和更廣泛的中東(Middle Eastern)戰爭威脅。如果持續下去，週二原油價格的飆升將推高美國燃料價格，打擊消費者情緒，這將對哈里斯不利。任何中東混亂的印象也可能對川普有利。
The second-most important event on Tuesday was arguably Trump pulling out of CBS’s widely watched 60 Minutes show next week and Harris confirming her participation. How she comes across in that interview, and the fact of Trump’s absence, is likely to have more sway than the Vance-Walz debate with the few million American voters who are still undecided.
週二第二重要的事件可以說是川普退出了下週CBS廣受關注的60分鐘節目，而哈里斯確認了她的參與。她在那次採訪中的表現，以及川普缺席的事實，可能對仍未決定的幾百萬美國選民產生比萬斯-沃爾茲辯論更大的影響力。
Nevertheless the vice-presidential encounter offered several pointers on the nature of this election. Three stood out.
儘管如此，這場副總統交鋒還是爲這次選舉的性質提供了一些線索。其中三點尤爲突出。
The first was Vance’s confidence and fluency. The Ohio senator also told some whopping lies. Of these, Vance’s claim that he had never supported a federal abortion ban and that Trump strengthened the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare”, were most egregious. Vance has consistently backed a national ban and other restrictions on women’s bodily autonomy. Trump tried to abolish the ACA multiple times.
首先是萬斯的自信和流利。這位俄亥俄州參議員還撒了一些彌天大謊。其中，萬斯聲稱自己從未支援過聯邦墮胎禁令，並聲稱川普加強了被稱爲「歐巴馬醫改」的平價醫療法案(Affordable Care Act)，這些都是最爲惡劣的謊言。萬斯一貫支援全國性禁令和其他限制婦女身體自主權的措施。川普曾多次試圖廢除平價醫療法案。
Vance also conspicuously dodged questions about whether the 2020 election was stolen. His evasions may come back to haunt him. Overall though, Vance evidently took on board widespread advice to come across as more likeable. The debate was a mirror image of last month’s Trump-Harris encounter. Both vice-presidential candidates were civil throughout.
萬斯還明顯迴避了關於2020年大選是否被竊取的問題。他的迴避可能會讓他後悔。不過，總的來說，萬斯顯然接受了廣泛的建議，試圖顯得更爲討人喜歡。這場辯論是上個月川普與哈里斯交鋒的鏡像。兩位副總統候選人在整個辯論過程中都表現得很文明。
Second, Walz was nervous and often faltering. The Harris-Walz campaign has taken some pride in avoiding mainstream media interviews and press conferences. Walz’s exposure has mostly been in soft settings with friendly journalists. Vance, by contrast, has been touring the Sunday morning shows almost every week. His slick evasions and polished whataboutisms betrayed many hours of practice on live TV.
其次，沃爾茲緊張而經常支吾其詞。哈里斯-沃爾茲競選團隊以避免接受主串流媒體採訪和舉行新聞發佈會爲榮。沃爾茲的曝光主要是在友好記者面前的輕鬆場合。相比之下，萬斯幾乎每週都在週日早間節目中巡迴演出。他圓滑的迴避和熟練的轉移話題體現出他在現場直播上花費了許多時間的練習。
The Harris-Walz campaign may come to regret their preference for gentler surroundings. America’s relatively small but potentially decisive share of wavering voters repeatedly tell pollsters that they want more information about Harris’s policies. That Trump has supplied much less policy detail is striking. But nobody said politics was fair.
哈里斯-沃爾茲競選團隊可能會後悔他們更喜歡溫和的環境。美國搖擺不定的選民中相對較小但可能具有決定性的一部分人一再告訴民意調查機構，他們想要更多關於哈里斯政策的資訊。川普提供的政策細節少得多，這令人震驚。但沒有人說政治是公平的。
Finally, Tuesday night offered a glimpse into one of America’s possible futures. Given the running mates’ respective age differences with their bosses, Vance’s performance was more significant. At 40, he is barely half Trump’s age. The prospect that a second term Trump would yield to a Vance administration before it ends is significantly higher than that of Harris giving way to Walz, who is several months older than her.
最後，週二晚上展示了美國可能的未來之一。考慮到競選夥伴與他們的老闆之間的年齡差異，萬斯的表現更爲重要。他只有40歲，幾乎是川普年齡的一半。川普連任後，萬斯接替他的可能性要遠高於哈里斯讓位給比她年長几個月的沃爾茲的可能性。
Vance conveyed Trumpism in its palatable form. He stood up for every tenet of Trumpism, including his refusal to accept that Biden won the 2020 election. But his mien was tempered and reasonable.
萬斯以易於接受的方式傳達了川普主義。他堅決支援川普主義的每一個原則，包括拒絕接受拜登贏得2020年選舉的事實。但他的態度溫和而理性。
Many Republicans last year invested great hope in Florida’s Ron DeSantis as the man who could uphold Trumpism without Trump. DeSantis turned out to be a dud in debates and on the hustings. Vance, on the other hand, has a future whatever happens next month. Liberals are right to fear Vance; he is a hardline Christian nationalist. After Tuesday night, however, they would be rash to dismiss him.
去年，許多共和黨人對佛羅里達州的羅恩•德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)寄予厚望，認爲他能夠在沒有川普的情況下堅持川普主義。然而，德桑蒂斯在辯論和競選中表現平平。相比之下，無論下個月發生什麼，萬斯的前途依然光明。自由派對萬斯的擔憂是有道理的，因爲他是一位強硬的基督教民族主義者。然而，經過週二晚上的表現，輕視他將是輕率的。