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At his State of the Union address early last month, US President Joe Biden proudly hailed the American economy as “the envy of the world”. It is hard to disagree. America has had the strongest post-pandemic economic recovery of all G7 nations. Annual inflation has fallen 6 percentage points from its summer 2022 peak, and the unemployment rate remains near record lows, even as interest rates have risen. To top it off, the S&P 500 is soaring.
在上個月初的國情諮文演講中，美國總統喬•拜登(Joe Biden)自豪地宣稱美國經濟是「世界的羨慕對象」。這一觀點實在難以反駁。在所有G7國家中，美國的疫後經濟復甦最爲強勁。年通膨率已從2022年夏季的高峯下降了6個百分點，儘管利率有所上升，但失業率仍然維持在接近歷史最低點的水準。最後，標普500指數的飆升更是錦上添花。
Despite the impressive national economic data — which Biden reeled off in his speech — surveys suggest Americans put more faith in Donald Trump to handle the economy. Consumer sentiment also remains below pre-pandemic levels. What explains the disconnect? Rising political polarisation is one driver — Democrat voters do tend to be more optimistic about the economic outlook. But partisan divides are only part of the story. Ultimately, it is the economic realities of daily life that matter most to individuals. And in America’s colossal economy, what is true for the whole is rarely true for its parts.
儘管拜登在演講中列舉了令人印象深刻的國家經濟數據，但調查顯示，美國人更相信川普(Donald Trump)能夠處理經濟問題。消費者信心也仍然低於疫情前的水準。這種脫節的原因是什麼呢？政治兩極化的加劇是一個驅動因素——民主黨選民確實對經濟前景更爲樂觀。但黨派分歧只是問題的一部分。最終，對個人來說，日常生活中的經濟現實才是最重要的。在美國這個龐大的經濟體中，適用於整體的情況往往並不適用於各個部分。
The US economy is significantly larger than all other G7 economies — but also its most unequal by income. As in other advanced economies, globalisation, financialisation and automation have been behind a growing divide between urban and non-urban areas. Between 1980 and 2021, America’s geographic income inequality rose over 40 per cent, according to the US Department of Commerce. The Biden administration has placed emphasis on reindustrialising left-behind regions, but commitments from the Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act will take time to deliver new factories and sufficient jobs on the ground.
美國經濟規模遠超其他G7經濟體，但在收入不平等方面也是最嚴重的。與其他發達經濟體一樣，全球化、金融化和自動化是城市與非城市地區之間日益擴大的鴻溝的原因。根據美國商務部(US Department of Commerce)的數據，從1980年到2021年，美國的地理收入不平等成長了40%以上。拜登政府強調對落後地區的再工業化，但《降低通膨法》(Inflation Reduction Act)和《晶片法案》(Chips Act)的承諾需要時間才能在地面上建立新的工廠並提供足夠的就業機會。
These divides mean the strong headline economic numbers mask large differences in the lived experiences of households and businesses across the country. First, large urbanised areas — including tech and finance hubs — have driven economic growth since the pandemic, while smaller metro and rural areas have continued to lag behind.
這些分歧意味著，強勁的經濟頭條數據掩蓋了全國各地家庭和企業生活體驗的巨大差異。首先，包括科技和金融中心在內的大型城市化地區自疫情以來一直是經濟成長的驅動力，而較小的都市和農村地區則持續滯後。
Second, although inflation is falling nationally, the cost of living — which factors highly into voters perceptions of the economy — also varies widely. States including Nevada, Utah, Arizona and Idaho — where Biden’s approval ratings are currently polling below the US average — have also experienced above average price-level increases between January 2021 and the start of this year, according to data compiled by Moody’s Analytics. Quarterly transitions into debt delinquency are also trending well above the national average in Texas and Florida, where Trump continues to have strong support.
其次，儘管全國的通膨率正在下降，但生活成本——這對選民對經濟的看法有重大影響——也存在很大的差異。根據穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)編制的數據，包括內華達、猶他州、亞利桑那州和愛達荷州在內的一些州，這些州在2021年1月至今年年初的物價水準上漲超過了平均水準，而拜登在這些州的支援率目前低於美國平均水準。在德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州，季度違約率的成長也遠高於全國平均水準，而川普在這兩個州仍然得到強大的支援。
Third, consumer spending — which has been strong, despite the higher cost of credit — has been propped up by the wealthiest Americans, who are also benefiting from rising home and equity valuations. But there are significant signs of stress elsewhere. The share of newly delinquent credit card borrowers on lower incomes has risen above 2019 levels, the number of multiple jobholders has picked up, and even some discount retail stores are struggling.
第三，儘管信貸成本上升，但消費支出一直保持強勁，這主要得益於最富有的美國人，他們也從房屋和股票估值的上升中獲益。然而，其他地方也出現了明顯的壓力跡象。低收入信用卡借款人的新違約比例已經超過2019年的水準，兼職工作的人數有所增加，甚至一些折扣零售店也面臨困境。
Finally, while the attention has been on the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, optimism and hiring plans among small businesses — which employ close to half of the country’s private sector workforce — have been dropping.
最後，儘管人們的關注焦點一直在「瑰麗七股」(Magnificent Seven)科技股上，但僱傭了國家近半民營部門勞動力的小企業的樂觀情緒和招聘計劃卻在下降。
America’s recent strength has surprised most. But dig beneath the surface and the country’s economic weaknesses — and its political divides — become clearer. For a nation the size of a continent, with vast inequalities, aggregate data is obscuring. As markets place bets on the US economy and politicians campaign, it pays to break it down.
美國近期的強勢令衆多人感到驚訝。然而，只要深入探究，這個國家的經濟弱點和政治分歧就會變得更加明顯。對於一個像大陸一樣廣大、存在巨大不平等的國家來說，總體數據往往掩蓋了真實情況。在市場對美國經濟進行投注，政治家們進行競選活動時，對數據進行細分分析是非常必要的。