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The hedge fund of billionaire trader Chris Rokos has racked up profits of more than $1bn so far this year, as a bet that the market was getting ahead of itself in forecasting aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve paid off handsomely.
億萬富翁交易員克里斯•羅科斯(Chris Rokos)的對沖基金今年迄今已積累超過10億美元的利潤，因爲對市場過早預測美聯準將大幅降息的押注取得了豐厚的回報。
Rokos Capital Management, which manages just under $16bn of assets, is up 8.8 per cent in 2024, according to a person who had seen the numbers.
根據一位看過數據的人士透露，管理著近160億美元資產的Rokos Capital Management在2024年增值了8.8%。
The company has told investors that the gains, which were up to Friday last week, were largely driven by a sell-off in bond markets as investors came round to the Fed’s view that rates would fall slower than markets expected late last year, the person said.
該人士說，該公司已告訴投資者，截至上週五的收益主要是由債券市場的拋售推動的，因爲投資者開始接受美聯準的觀點，即利率下降的速度將慢於市場去年底的預期。
Rokos Capital declined to comment.
Rokos Capital拒絕置評。
In December, traders were pricing in roughly six quarter-point rate cuts in 2024 from the current level of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent, double the three signposted by Fed officials. But markets have dialled back their expectations following pushback from the central bank and a run of solid economic data that suggests the US economy is not sliding into a downturn.
去年12月，交易員預計2024年將從目前的5.25%至5.5%降息約6次，每次25個基點，是美聯準官員預計的3次的兩倍。但在美聯準反駁以及一系列穩健的經濟數據表明美國經濟並未陷入衰退之後，市場已經調低了預期。
Data released this month showed that inflation eased less than expected to an annual pace of 3.1 per cent in January, leading investors to ditch bets that borrowing costs would fall as soon as May.
本月公佈的數據顯示，1月份通膨率放緩至3.1%的年率，低於預期，導致投資者放棄了對借貸成本最快將在5月份下降的押注。
Markets are currently pricing in three or four cuts by the end of this year, with the first move in June.
目前，市場預計今年年底前將有三到四次降息，首次降息將在6月份。
Two-year Treasury yields, which closely track interest rate expectations, have climbed to 4.6 per cent from less than 4.2 per cent in early January. Bond yields move inversely from prices.
與利率預期密切相關的兩年期國債收益率已從1月初的不到4.2%攀升至4.6%。債券收益率與價格走勢相反。
The figures came after Rokos outperformed macro hedge fund rivals Brevan Howard and Caxton last year, delivering 8.8 per cent for the year. Brevan Howard’s flagship fund was down 2.1 per cent while its Alpha Strategies fund was up 2.4 per cent, according to people who have seen the figures.
先前，Rokos去年的表現超過了宏觀對沖基金競爭對手Brevan Howard和Caxton，全年回報率爲8.8%。據知情人士透露，Brevan Howard的旗艦基金下跌2.1%，而其Alpha Strategies基金上漲2.4%。
Rokos was a star trader at Brevan, which he co-founded, earning billions of dollars for investors before striking out on his own in 2015.
Rokos曾是他共同創立的Brevan的明星交易員，在2015年獨立創業前爲投資者賺取了數十億美元。
Macro hedge fund Caxton’s Macro fund was down 9.2 per cent last year, while its flagship Global Investments fund lost about 1 per cent, according to investors.
投資者表示，宏觀對沖基金Caxton的Macro基金去年下跌9.2%，而其旗艦Global Investments基金虧損約1%。
