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After more than three months of Israel’s devastating Gaza war, Arab states are developing a plan they hope will bring an end to the conflict and lay the foundations for a sustainable peace. At the core of the US-backed initiative is to offer Israel a prize it has long sought: the normalisation of relations with Arab and Muslim states, including the grand prize of Saudi Arabia. In return, Israel would have to commit to “irreversible” steps towards the establishment of a viable Palestinian state.
在以色列對加沙進行了三個多月的毀滅性戰爭之後，阿拉伯國家正在制定一項計劃，希望能夠結束衝突，爲實現可持續和平奠定基礎。美國支援的這項倡議的核心，是向以色列提供一個它長期以來一直在尋求的獎賞：與阿拉伯和穆斯林國家的關係正常化，包括沙烏地阿拉伯這個「大獎」。作爲回報，以色列必須承諾採取「不可逆轉」的措施，建立一個能獨立發展的巴勒斯坦國。
The premise of the plan, which is expected to be unveiled within weeks, is simple. There can only be a durable peace in the Middle East if the protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has fuelled instability in the region for 75 years, is resolved in a manner that delivers Palestinians the dignity, freedom and homeland they have long sought. But the challenge of securing any such agreement — something that has eluded some of the world’s sharpest diplomatic minds over the years — is anything but.
該計劃預計將在數週內公佈，其前提很簡單。只有以一種使巴勒斯坦人獲得他們長期尋求的尊嚴、自由和家園的方式解決75年來加劇該地區不穩定的曠日持久的以色列-巴勒斯坦衝突，中東才能實現持久和平。但要達成這樣的協議——多年來，世界上一些最厲害的外交家一直未能做到這一點——絕非易事。
For a start, there needs to be an end to Israel’s assault against Hamas in Gaza which has killed more than 25,000 people, according to Palestinian officials. The militant group must also release the remaining hostages held in the strip.
首先，以色列必須結束對加沙地帶哈馬斯的襲擊。據巴勒斯坦官員稱，以色列對哈馬斯的襲擊已造成2.5萬多人死亡。該激進組織也必須釋放被關押在加沙地帶的其餘人質。
That appears remote, however. Hamas is still fighting. And Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly rules out a ceasefire deal with Hamas, even one that would secure the hostages’ freedom. He insists only the destruction of the militants can bring back the hostages and guarantee Israel’s security.
然而，這似乎還遙遙無期。哈馬斯仍在戰鬥。以色列總理本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)一再排除與哈馬斯達成停火協議的可能性，即使是能確保人質自由的協議。他堅持認爲，只有消滅激進分子才能把人質帶回來，才能保證以色列的安全。
Netanyahu also rejects any discussion on a two-state solution, even as the US and Israel’s other allies push for it as part of a longer-term political vision for the region. Indeed, he boasts of preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state during the 15 years he has towered over Israeli politics and overseen the creeping annexation of the occupied West Bank. On Sunday, he said he would not “compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River”, an area that includes the West Bank and Gaza.
內塔尼亞胡還拒絕就兩國間的解決方案進行任何討論，儘管美國和以色列的其他盟友正在推動這一方案，使其作爲該地區長期政治願景的一部分。事實上，在他掌控以色列政壇的15年裏，他一直吹噓自己阻止了巴勒斯坦建國，並監督了對被佔領約旦河西岸的逐步吞併。週日，他表示，他不會「在以色列對約旦河以西所有領土實施全面安全控制的問題上妥協」，該地區包括約旦河西岸和加沙。
Netanyahu is not the only obstacle to progress. In a nation traumatised and enraged by Hamas’s horrific October 7 attack, it is unlikely that any mainstream Israeli leader is ready to advocate working towards a Palestinian state.
內塔尼亞胡並不是取得進展的唯一障礙。在一個因哈馬斯10月7日的恐怖襲擊而受到創傷並感到憤怒的國家，不太可能有任何以色列主流領導人願意倡導爲建立一個巴勒斯坦國而努力。
There would also need to be a wholesale revamp of the failed Palestinian leadership, to produce one with the legitimacy to engage credibly with Israel and work to guarantee both Palestinians’ and Israelis’ security. Moreover, Hamas’s military capabilities have been severely degraded in Gaza but it will continue to work against a two-state solution.
此外，還需要對失敗的巴勒斯坦領導層進行一次大規模的改革，以建立一個具有合法性的領導層，與以色列進行可信的接觸，並努力保證巴勒斯坦人和以色列人的安全。另外，哈馬斯在加沙的軍事能力已被嚴重削弱，但它將繼續反對兩國解決方案。
Still, for all the hurdles and pitfalls, it is vital to shift the Israeli narrative towards a sustainable resolution to the conflict. The prospect of Saudi Arabia, and other states, normalising ties with the Jewish state is one of the few incentives that could shift the mood.
儘管存在種種障礙和隱患，但將以色列的敘事轉向對沖突的可持續解決方案至關重要。沙烏地阿拉伯和其他國家與這個猶太國家關係正常化的前景，是可能改變這種情緒的少數激勵因素之一。
It will require a sustained and determined US diplomatic effort, as well as responsible leadership from both Israelis and Palestinians — all before the US presidential elections in November. As well as offering carrots, the US and European governments must also be willing to use their sticks to convince Israeli leaders that a Palestinian state ultimately serves their own interests.
這將需要美國持續而堅定的外交努力，以及以色列和巴勒斯坦雙方負責任的領導——所有這些都要在11月美國總統大選之前完成。除了提供激勵措施外，美國和歐洲政府還必須願意動用大棒，讓以色列領導人相信，建立一個巴勒斯坦國最終是符合他們的利益的。
As challenging as it is, the only way to counter Hamas and the violent extremism it champions is if Palestinians have reason to hope for their future. Israel has dealt Hamas a severe blow but it cannot get rid of it as a movement or ideology. Only Palestinians can. If Israel’s leaders choose to ignore that reality, they are condemning their nation, and future generations of Israelis and Palestinians, to endless cycles of violence.
儘管困難重重，但對抗哈馬斯及其支援的暴力極端主義的唯一方法是，讓巴勒斯坦人對自己的未來抱有希望。以色列給了哈馬斯一個沉重的打擊，但無法消除其作爲一個運動或意識形態的存在。只有巴勒斯坦人可以。如果以色列領導人選擇無視這一現實，他們將使自己的國家以及以色列和巴勒斯坦未來的幾代人陷入無休止的暴力循環。