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Bayer’s 2018 acquisition of US crop science company Monsanto is the takeover that just keeps on taking. This week’s €2.5bn impairment charge adds to already extensive financial damage. It will reinvigorate activist demands for a break-up.
拜耳(Bayer) 2018年收購美國作物科學公司孟山都(Monsanto)的交易可謂一次不斷讓拜耳付出代價的收購。本週的25億歐元減值損失使本已嚴重的財務損失雪上加霜。這將重新激起維權投資者要求分手的呼聲。
Bayer paid $65bn for Monsanto assets that included a glyphosate weedkiller called Roundup. Management initially underestimated the high cost of an accompanying health scare, as managements typically do. Allegations that Roundup is carcinogenic have prompted numerous lawsuits.
拜耳斥資650億美元收購了孟山都的資產，其中包括名爲Roundup的草甘膦除草劑。管理層最初低估了伴隨而來的健康恐慌所帶來的高昂代價——管理層通常都是如此。有關Roundup致癌的指控已經引發了無數訴訟。
Bayer trades at a depressed enterprise valuation of about 7 times forward ebitda. Change may now be in the air. Werner Baumann, the chief executive responsible for the Monsanto purchase, has stepped aside after a long period of poor share price performance. Replacement Bill Anderson started last month. As a former Roche executive, his expertise is drugs, not weedkillers.
拜耳目前的企業估值較低，約爲預期ebitda的7倍。變化可能正在醞釀之中。負責收購孟山都的首席執行長沃納•鮑曼(Werner Baumann)在股價表現長期低迷後已經下臺。接替他的比爾•安德森(Bill Anderson)上個月上任。作爲羅氏(Roche)前高階主管，他的專長是藥物，而非除草劑。
A couple of things look odd about the impairment. First, it is relatively small, given that Bayer has about €39bn of goodwill on its balance sheet, more than half of which derives from the Monsanto acquisition. Second, Bayer blames a weak glyphosate market, which might be a temporary phenomenon, for the writedown. About 60 per cent of world sales are generic products, most of which are made in China.
此次減值有幾個奇怪之處。首先，減值額相對較小，考慮到拜耳資產負債表上約有390億歐元的商譽，其中一半以上來自於對孟山都的收購。其次，拜耳將減值歸咎於草甘膦市場的疲軟，而這可能只是暫時現象。全球約 60%的銷售爲無牌產品，其中大部分由中國製造。
Anderson will hopefully substitute signal for noise when he presents earnings on August 8. He should signal whether a restructuring is likely. Activists Inclusive Capital and Bluebell have called for this. They favour a spinout of the crop science unit, a business that troubles environmental, social and governance investors.
安德森有望在8月8日公佈財報時用信號代替噪音。他應該表明是否可能進行重組。維權投資者Inclusive Capital和Bluebell呼籲這樣做。他們傾向於將作物科學部門——一個困擾環境、社會和治理投資者的業務——分拆出去。
That would make sense. Even at 10 times next year’s ebitda, a sixth cheaper than rivals FMC and Corteva, Bayer’s crop science unit should be worth about €60bn, 2024 Visible Alpha estimates imply — albeit undiscounted for a long tail of legal claims. Compare that with the group’s total enterprise value of €86bn.
這樣做是有道理的。根據Visible Alpha的估計，即便按明年的10倍ebitda計算(比競爭對手FMC和Corteva便宜六分之一)，拜耳旗下作物科學部門的價值也應該在600億歐元左右——儘管沒有考慮到大量的法律索賠。相比之下，該集團的總企業價值爲860億歐元。
Bayer has argued that cash flow from crop science and its consumer health unit help fund its growing pharmaceuticals pipeline. But Bayer’s persistently low multiple against agrochemical and pharma peers underscores the need for change.
拜耳辯稱，來自作物科學及其消費者保健部門的現金流，有助於爲其不斷增加的藥品產品線提供資金。但拜耳相對於農化和製藥同行的市盈率持續偏低，突顯了變革的必要性。
Anderson wishes to boost pharma, for example, by removing centralised research budgeting. But that could take years to lift the group’s low valuation. Like all incoming bosses, he has a brief window to cut loose a problem division. He should exploit it.
例如，安德森希望透過取消集中的研究預算安排來促進位藥部門的發展。但這可能需要數年時間才能提升該集團的低估值。像所有新上任的老闆一樣，他有一個短暫的視窗來擺脫一個問題部門。他應該利用這一時機。