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長壽時代的理論與對策 Theories and Countermeasures for the Age of Longevity(一):引言

摘要:人類社會正在進入長壽時代,這將是關係人類未來發展的重大問題。長壽時代的特徵是低死亡率、低生育率、壽命延長,在相當長的時間內,人們的預期壽命每10年會增長2~3歲,若干年後,相當多的人可能進入百歲人生。與此同時,人口年齡結構從金字塔結構轉變為柱狀結構,平台期老齡人口佔比超越1/4。本文完善了長壽時代的概念,認為長壽時代將是人口轉變下的新均衡,並在此基礎上對相關學術理論進行歸納研究,系統地闡述了長壽時代的特徵和形成,進而提出長壽時代將帶來健康時代和財富時代,對社會的經濟模式、產業結構及各個方面造成影響。本文以動態的視角看待人類社會對老齡人口佔比增多現象的應對現狀,對長壽時代給社會經濟可能帶來的影響進行了剖析,指出長壽時代下會產生新形態的長壽經濟,將在微觀層面深刻改變個人的生活方式及健康財富規劃,促使企業轉變經營方式、保持組織活力、承擔社會責任。基於此,本文從社會、政府、企業三個層面探討了長壽時代的解決方案,尤其強調企業應創新商業模式、引入共享及生態理念,對引導長壽時代下的產業變革與企業轉型具有理論與實踐意義。

關鍵詞:長壽時代 人口紅利 長壽經濟 產業結構

Abstract: Human society is entering an age of longevity, which poses a significant challenge for the future development of humanity. This age of longevity is characterised by low mortality and birth rates and prolonged lifespans. For a quite long period of time, the life expectancy of human being has increased by 2-3 years every 10 years, and the number of centenarians in our midst is increasing. At the same time, the population age structure has changed, from pyramidal to pillar-shaped, and then plateaued with the elderly share of population higher than one quarter. This article further refines the definition of the age of longevity, considers it as a new steady state of the demographic transition, and, on this basis, performs an inductive research with relevant academic theories. The article will also provide a systematic explanation of the characteristics and causes of the age of longevity, and further propose that this age of longevity will usher in an era of health and an era of wealth , which will have an impact on society in terms of economic models, industrial structures and a range of other dimensions. In addition, this article provides a dynamic view of how our society is responding to the rapid ageing, evaluates the potential social and economic impacts of this age of longevity, and proposes that in this era, a new model of longevity economy will emerge, which will bring about profound changes to personal lifestyles, health management and wealth planning at the micro level, and encourage enterprises to change the ways in which they do business, to maintain organisational vitality, and to assume greater amounts of social responsibility. On this basis, this article discusses potential solutions to the challenges posed by this age of longevity from a community, government and corporate perspective, with a particular emphasis on the need for businesses to innovate in terms of their business models, and embrace the concept of sharing and the ecology. This article therefore has theoretical and practical implications for guiding industrial change and corporate transformation in this age of longevity.

Keywords:

Age of longevity

Demographic dividend

Longevity economy

Industrial structure

一、引言

A. Foreword

隨著世界老齡人口佔比不斷增加的趨勢日益明顯,學界普遍認為其速度加快會帶來一系列社會問題,日本等部分國家已出現了經濟衰退現象。但也有實證研究發現老齡人口不斷增加與經濟增長之間沒有負面關係,經濟學家將其歸因於相關國家的科技發展及對老齡化的適應速度較快(Acemoglu and Restrepo,2017)。面對人類壽命日益延長,一些學者聚焦於壽命實質增長所帶來的生活與就業的改變,提出了「長壽時代」(the Age of Longevity)的概念(琳達·格拉頓等,2018)①。我們認為「長壽時代」這一概念,雖然包含「老齡化」所描述的一些典型人口現象,但更多地指向老年人口佔比升高後人類社會的一種相對穩定狀態,有著更豐富的含義。首先,「長壽時代」更具前瞻性,強調人口結構轉變後的新均衡及其帶來的影響,啟迪個人和社會立足全生命周期,積極主動地應對這一變化。而老齡化多是關注老年人口變化的階段性過程和發展困境,其視角往往著眼於老齡人口本身及其產生的問題,偏向被動應對。其次,「長壽時代」涵蓋的領域更廣,包括長壽與健康、財富等主題的內在關聯,蘊涵了人口現象背後一系列的挑戰和機遇。最後,在闡述「長壽時代」特徵時,我們不僅僅停留在死亡率、出生率下降這兩個導致「老齡化」的因素上,而是增加了對壽命增長和人口結構變遷長期趨勢的預測,把「長壽時代」所指的長期的、相對穩定的人口和社會經濟形態界定得更清晰。本文旨在系統性地闡述「長壽時代」的內涵與外延,擴充完善其學術理論,並在社會、政府、企業層面探討了對長壽時代的應對思路。

In the face of the accelerating trend of old-age dependency ratio, there is a widespread belief in the academic world that the increasing speed of population ageing will give rise to a range of social problems. Indeed, a number of countries, notably including Japan, have already begun to show signs of an economic recession. Empirical studies, however, have found no negative relationship between this ongoing acceleration in population ageing and economic growth, a fact that economists attribute to the technological developments of the countries involved, and their relatively rapid adaptation to ageing (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017). Faced with a constant increase in human life expectancy, a number of scholars have focused on the changes in lifestyles and employment brought about by the real increase in life expectancy, and have proposed the concept of 「the Age of Longevity」 (Lynda Gratton et al., 2018) (1). In our view, although this concept includes a number of typical population traits encompassed by the term 「ageing」, it further highlights the relative stability of human society as the proportion of the elderly in the population increases, and therefore has a wider, deeper meaning. First of all, this 「age of longevity」 is more forward-looking, emphasising the new steady state and the impact thereof following this demographic transition, inspiring individuals and society as a whole to grasp all stages of life cycle, and actively respond to this change. While ageing is mainly concerned with the gradual process of population ageing and the resulting development issues, its point of view often focuses on the ageing population itself and the problems that it creates, and tends to provide passive responses to these. Secondly, the 「age of longevity」 covers a wider range of areas, including the interconnection of longevity, health, wealth and other themes, implicitly suggesting a series of challenges and opportunities which lie beyond the population dynamics itself. Finally, when describing the characteristics of this 「age of longevity」, we have not merely confined ourselves to the twin factors of declining mortality and birth rate which lead to the 「ageing」, but have also expanded predictions of long-term trends in life expectancy growth and demographic changes, to provide a clearer definition of the long-term, relatively stable population and socio-economic patterns referred to in the 「age of longevity」. This article aims to provide a systematic explanation of the meaning and connotations of the 「age of longevity」, expand and enhance academic theory on the subject, and discuss responses to the age of longevity at the social, government and corporate levels.

數據表明,世界正在快速地變老。聯合國人口司《世界人口展望2019》顯示,2019年世界人口平均預期壽命已達到72.6歲,比1990年提升8.4歲,預計2050年全球平均預期壽命有望達到77.1歲。1990年全球65歲及以上老人約佔總人口的6.2%,2019年這一數字上升到9.1%,預計到2050年將達到15.9%。與此同時,80歲以上高齡人口的增速會超過低齡老人,1990年全球80歲以上人口只有5400萬,2019年已達1.43億,預計到2050年將達到4.26億。同時,聯合國數據還顯示,在過去的幾十年里,全球幾乎都在經歷生育率的下降,總和生育率已從1990年的3.2降至2019年的2.5,到2050年將可能降至2.2的水平。這也導致全球出生人口增速已經變得非常緩慢,預計到2045年後全球出生人口數量將開始逐年下降。根據聯合國人口司中等假設水平預測,全球人口規模可能在2100年前後到達頂峰並開始回落,也有一部分人口學家認為2050年就有可能迎來人口拐點(達雷爾·布里克等,2019)。

The data indicates that the world is ageing rapidly. The United Nations Population Division』s World Population Prospects 2019 shows that in 2019, the average life expectancy of the world』s population was 72.6 years, an increase of 8.4 years compared to 1990. By 2050, global average life expectancy is expected to reach 77.1 years. In 1990, the elderly, i.e., those aged 65 years and above, made up 6.2% of the world』s total population, whereas by 2019, this figure had risen to 9.1%; by 2050, it is expected to reach 15.9%. At the same time, the growth rate of the population over 80 years old will outstrip that of the younger segment of the elderly population. In 1990, the global population above 80 years of age comprised a mere 54 million people, whereas by 2019, this had risen to 143 million, and is expected to reach 426 million by 2050. United Nations data also shows that over the past few decades, the world has experienced a decline in fertility almost across the board. From 3.2 in 1990, the total fertility rate had dropped to 2.5 in 2019, and is likely to further decline to 2.2 by 2050. This has also brought about a significant slowdown in the growth rate of the global birth population, and global birth population numbers are expected to begin to decline year on year from 2045 onward. According to the United Nations Population Division』s medium-variant projections, the size of the global population may peak around 2100 and then begin to fall, while some demographers believe that the population inflection point may come as early as in 2050 (Darrell Bricker et al., 2019).

聯合國給出的人口中位數變化趨勢顯示,與許多歐美國家相比,東亞國家的老齡人口增長速度更快。其中,日本老齡人口佔比自2005年開始超過北歐國家高居全球首位,其老年撫養比目前已達到48%。2010年至2019年之間,日本的死亡人數比出生人數多出260萬人,預計到21世紀中葉日本人口將減少到1億左右,21世紀末將進一步縮水至7500萬人。近年,日本的情況在亞太地區(韓國、新加坡、中國香港和台灣地區等)相繼重演,其發展脈絡具有借鑒意義。

According to the trend of population』s median age reported by United Nations, the ageing population of the nations of East Asia is growing faster than that of many European and American countries. Of these nations, the proportion of Japan』s elderly population has, since 2005, surpassed that of the Nordic countries, and now ranks first worldwide, with an old-age dependency ratio currently standing at 48%. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of deaths in Japan was 2.6 million higher than the number of births. It is estimated that, by the mid-21st century, Japan』s population will reduce to approximately 100 million and will shrink further to 75 million by the end of the century. In recent years, Japan』s situation has been repeated across the Asia-Pacific region (South Korea, Singapore, and China』s regions of Hong Kong and Taiwan, inter alia). Japan』s pattern of population dynamics, therefore, has useful implications for China.

與東亞發達國家和地區類似,中國的人均期望壽命在增加,老齡人口增長速度不斷加快,人口年齡結構正在發生深刻變化。中國2016年的人口預期壽命為76.3歲,在195個國家中排名68位,有學者認為若按此趨勢保持下去,2040年中國的排名將會上升至39位,人口預期壽命達到81.9歲(Foreman et al.,2018)。在老齡人口佔比結構及增長速度方面,根據國家統計局公布的數據,中國65歲及以上人口佔比已從2000年的7.0%上升到2019年的12.6%。據聯合國預計,到2025年中國65歲及以上人口佔比就將上升到14%,到2045年預計每4個中國人中就有1位老人。

In a similar way to the developed nations and regions of East Asia, China』s average life expectancy is also increasing, the growth rate of the elderly population is constantly accelerating, and the age structure of the population is undergoing profound changes. In 2016, China』s life expectancy was 76.3 years, ranking 68th out of 195 countries. Some scholars believe that if this trend continues, China will climb the ranks to 39th by 2040, with a population life expectancy of 81.9 years (Foreman et al., 2018). In terms of the relative size of the elderly population, data released by China』s National Bureau of Statistics shows that the proportion of the country』s population aged 65 years and above has risen, from 7.0% in 2000 to 12.6% in 2019. According to United Nations estimates, by 2025, China』s population aged 65 years and above will rise to 14%, and it is estimated that every one in four persons in China will be elderly by 2045.

與世界發達國家相比,中國將面臨更多的挑戰。中國人口基數大、生育率下降快,導致老齡人口增長進程愈發加速;國家醫療保障體制、福利保障體系難以匹配將要到來的社會人口年齡結構;人口預期壽命快速增長,但人均收入及儲蓄均不及同時期發達國家,難以支撐個人退休期間的消費水平,或導致「未富先老」、「又老又窮」的社會現象發生。2019年中國65歲及以上人口佔比達12.6%,人均GDP突破1萬美元,而美、日、韓老齡人口比重達12.6%時人均GDP均在2.4萬美元以上。有國外專家提出,中國未來的老齡人口增長速度很可能比日本更快,引起的問題也更嚴重。

Compared with the world』s developed countries, China will face even greater challenges. China』s large population base and rapidly declining fertility rate have accelerated the growth of its elderly population; the national health and welfare systems will find it difficult to keep up with the impending age structure of the population; and the life expectancy of the population is rising fast, but average per capita income and savings are lower than those of developed countries over the same stage of demographic transition. Difficulties are being encountered supporting the consumption levels of individuals during retirement, and instances of 「Getting Old before Getting Rich」 and old-age penury can be found across society. In 2019, China』s population aged 65 years and above made up 12.6% of the total population, while per capita GDP had broken the USD 10, 000 barrier. By contrast, at the stage when their American, Japanese and Korean counterparts made up 12.6% of the population, these nations』 per capita GDP already exceeded USD 24, 000. A number of foreign experts have proposed that the growth rate of China』s future ageing population may very likely be higher than Japan』s, and the problems that this will cause will be more severe.

人類進入18世紀中葉,尤其是工業革命以後,期望壽命開始前所未有地增長,長期以來相對恆定的人口年齡結構發生深刻改變,這引起了學者的極大興趣和理論思考(安格斯·迪頓,2014)。近代人口學誕生以來經歷了三個主要理論發展階段:一是從18世紀末發展至今的馬爾薩斯主義理論,二是20世紀後期興起的人口衰竭理論,三是近20年間對「積極老齡化」(Active Ageing)的廣泛探討及相關研究。然而面對目前全球範圍下的老齡人口增長浪潮,各種理論都難以有效應對挑戰。

As the human race entered the mid-18th century, and particularly following the Industrial Revolution, life expectancy began a period of unprecedented growth, and the population age structure, which had remained relatively constant for a long time, underwent profound changes, all of which has attracted great attention and theoretical discussion amongst scholars (Angus Deaton, 2014). Modern demography has undergone three major stages of theoretical development since its birth: the first is Malthusian theory, which has continued to evolve since the end of the 18th century to the present date. The second is the population decline theory , developed in the latter years of the 20th century, while the third is 「active ageing」, which has been widely discussed and extensively studied over the last 20 years. However, none of these theories appear able to effectively face up to the challenges of the current, global wave of population ageing.

第一類理論為馬爾薩斯主義學派。近代人口問題研究的先驅馬爾薩斯在其人口理論中闡述了農業社會中資源對人口增長的限制作用,後衍生出馬爾薩斯學派,強調控制人口的必要性。20世紀70年代,著名民間學術組織羅馬俱樂部對工業時期的人口過度增長及其所致的經濟增長極限作出建模預測(德內拉·梅多斯等,2019),認為馬爾薩斯式的人口增長及資源利用將導致不可控的衰竭,應引起警惕重視。該類預測在近年被真實數據證明存在偏誤,未充分考慮技術革命帶來的資源解放以及城市化導致的生育意願降低,過度放大了人口增長的潛在風險。

The first of these theories is the Malthusian school. Malthus, a pioneer in research into modern population problems, expounded on the restrictive impact of resources on population growth in agricultural society in his population theory, and this later developed into the Malthusian school, which emphasised the necessity of population control. In the 1970s, the Club of Rome, a well-known non-governmental academic organisation, constructed models to predict the excessive population growth of the Industrial Era and the resulting limit of economic growth (Donella Meadows et al., 2019), and believed that population growth and resource utilisation would lead to uncontrollable failures as Malthus described, which required vigilance and close attention. In recent years, real-life data has shown that forecasts of this kind are biased, failing to fully consider the freeing-up of resources brought about by the technological revolution as well as the reduced desire to reproduce brought about by urbanisation, and hence excessively exaggerating the potential risks of population growth.

第二類理論密切關注老齡人口增長問題,並提出人口衰竭的預期。20世紀末至今,全球相繼邁入老齡人口快速增長階段且各國缺乏有效應對方案,有關人口結構老齡化、人口規模衰減的分析研究開始大量興起。1987年,德克·范德卡(Dirk Van de Kaa)提出「第二次人口轉變」(The Second Demographic Transition),對生育率低於人口替代率的現象作出解釋(Van de Kaa,1987)。在分析老齡人口增長及人口規模下降的成因及影響方面,多國學者均指出人口老齡化及人口負增長會對消費、生產力、就業、創新、競爭力、財政儲蓄與文明傳承造成壓力,此類研究強調老齡人口的負擔性及人口負增長帶來的挑戰(Bloom et al.,2003;Maestas et al.,2016;大前研一,2017;梁建章、黃文政,2018;達雷爾·布里克等,2019)。

The second of these theories was intimately related to the growth of aged population, and raised the prospect of population decline. Since the end of the 20th century, the world as a whole has entered a phase of rapid population ageing, an issue to which no country has so far found an effective solution, and analytical research into the ageing of the population structure and shrinking population sizes has taken on new importance. In 1987, Dirk Van de Kaa proposed a 「second demographic transition」 to explain why fertility rates can be lower than the population replacement rate (Van de Kaa, 1987). In their analyses of the causes and effects of population ageing and population shrinking, scholars from around the world have all pointed out the pressure that population ageing and negative population growth will place on consumption, productivity, employment, innovation, competitiveness, fiscal savings and cultural heritage. Studies of this kind emphasise the burden of the ageing population and the challenges brought about by negative population growth (Bloom et al., 2003; Maestas et al., 2016; Kenichi Ohmae, 2017; Liang Jianzhang and Huang Wenzheng, 2018; Darrell Bricker et al., 2019).

20世紀90年代起「積極老齡化」引起了廣泛探討。聯合國及世界衛生組織等國際組織開始倡導「健康老齡化」,後又提出「積極老齡化」概念,人們意識到應多角度地看待老齡人口增長現象,研究領域逐漸多樣化、細分化。老齡人口增長開始被看作是科技、醫療、健康護理、公共衛生等多方面的進步,人們普遍認為該問題「機遇與挑戰並存」。與此同時,2000年以來中國關於養老問題的研究成果增多,上升趨勢明顯(曹獻雨、睢黨臣,2018)。

Since the 1990s, 「active ageing」 has become a topic of widespread discussion. At this time, the United Nations, World Health Organisation and other international bodies began to advocate 「healthy ageing」, and later proposed a definition of 「active ageing」. People realised that the phenomenon of ageing population growth needed be viewed from multiple perspectives, and research in this field has gradually diversified and subdivided. The growth of the ageing population began to be seen in terms of advances in science and technology, medicine, healthcare, public health and other aspects, and people now generally consider the issue a 「coexistence of opportunities and challenges」. At the same time, China has since 2000 also more and more studies into the issue of elder care, and there has been an obvious upward trend in this research area (Cao Xianyu and Sui Dangchen, 2018).

在各國老齡人口佔比均不斷升高的時代背景下,經典人口學理論顯示出諸多缺陷,而針對老齡人口問題的研究,一方面以碎片化成果為主,缺乏成體系的理論指導,另一方面偏重數據分析和預測推演,缺少針對未來人口年齡結構的實踐經驗及系統性解決方案。站在過去看未來,將受制於當前社會階段的發展邏輯,難以有效應對挑戰。本文通過解讀全球人口發展脈絡,指出長壽時代的不可逆性,立足未來人口和社會形態分析各要素間的相互作用,並由此推導出合理有效的對策。文章將延伸豐富長壽時代的理論價值,建立一套發展的、符合未來壽命和人口年齡結構長期趨勢的理論分析框架,深入剖析長壽時代的挑戰和機遇,並指出企業及個人的應對思路。

This era of increasing ageing segments in the populations of various countries has shown up the various shortcomings of classic demographic theory, while research focusing on the issue of population ageing is on the one hand mainly based on fragmented results and lacking in systematic, theoretical guidance, while on the other, an emphasis on data analysis and forecasting is lacking in input from practical experience and systematic solutions for the age structure of the future population. Standing in the past as we look to the future makes us subject to the developmental logic of the current stage of society, making it hard to effectively overcome the challenges that we face. This article provides an interpretation of the development context of the global population in order to point out the irreversible nature of this age of longevity, analyses the interactions between the various elements based on future population and social patterns, and uses these to derive reasonable and effective countermeasures. The article will expand the theoretical value of the concept 「age of longevity」, establishes a developmental, theoretical analysis framework which is consistent with the long-term trends of future life expectancy and population age structure, provides an in-depth analysis of the challenges and opportunities posed by the age of longevity, and proposes suitable responses for enterprises and individuals.

文章首先闡述長壽時代的主要特徵及形成原因,探討低死亡率、低生育率,以及預期壽命保持增長、人口年齡結構趨向柱狀、平台期老齡人口佔比超越1/4等人口現象。第二,在微觀角度指出長壽時代與健康時代、財富時代的關聯性:長壽時代下預期壽命的延長、生存質量的提高和社會功能的變化將造就健康產業及健康經濟,同時社會儲蓄結構及財富積累形式將會發生變化,對養老金替代率充足的需求,會推動第二次人口紅利(Mason and Lee,2004)。第三,從宏觀角度說明長壽時代對生產、需求、就業、增長、社會公平等多方面的影響。最後,文章著重探討了在長壽時代下,個人社會需要作出的調整,政府的作用,以及企業應如何創新商業模式、保持企業活力、承擔企業社會責任,通過市場經濟的方式解決社會問題,積極迎接機遇與挑戰。

We will first elaborate on the main characteristics and causes of the age of longevity, discussing the low mortality and fertility rates, as well as the sustained growth in life expectancy, the pillar-shaped tendency of the population age structure, and the phenomenon of the proportion of the ageing population making up more than a quarter of the population during the plateau period. Secondly, from a micro perspective, we will point out the interactions among the age of longevity, the era of health, and the era of wealth. On one hand, increased life expectancy, improved quality of life and changes in social functions will create growth opportunities for health-related industries and health economy. On the other, the changes which will occur in the social savings structure and forms of wealth accumulation, as well as the need for a sufficiently robust pension replacement rate will drive a second demographic dividend (Mason and Lee, 2004). Thirdly, we will use a macro perspective to illustrate the impact of the age of longevity on production, demand, employment, growth, social equity and other areas. Finally, this article will focus on discussing the adjustments which individuals and society will need to make in this age of longevity, the role of government, and the ways in which enterprises can develop innovative business models, maintain their corporate vitality, take on corporate social responsibility, use market economic means to resolve social issues, and actively meet the opportunities and challenges that arise.

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