The writer is chief economist at ING
本文作者是荷蘭國際集團(ING)首席經濟學家
Donald Trump’s resounding victory has upset conventional economists almost as much as American liberals. The Republican candidate’s pledge to implement trade tariffs and other protectionist measures has provoked a spate of dire economic prognostications. But much of the current doom-mongery doesn’t consider mitigating factors — and risks undermining the credibility of globalisation’s defenders.
唐納•川普(Donald Trump)的大勝給傳統經濟學家帶來的沮喪與給美國自由派人士帶來的沮喪不相上下。這名共和黨當選總統實施關稅和其他保護主義措施的承諾已經引發一連串嚴峻的經濟預測。但當前很大一部分「末世論」並沒有考慮緩和因素——而且可能會削弱全球化捍衛者的可信度。
These are difficult times for economic experts. Politicians hardly seem to take their advice seriously any more. Economists continue to warn about the dangers of deglobalisation in the form of higher prices and less GDP growth but electorates are rolling their eyes. Trump’s victory amplifies this trend.
對於經濟專家而言，現在是艱難時期。政客們似乎基本不再嚴肅對待他們的意見。經濟學家們繼續警告去全球化的危險——價格上漲和國內生產總值(GDP)成長放緩——但選民們滿不在乎。川普的勝利放大了這一趨勢。