US Treasuries: Fed cannot count on Asian investors forever

{"text":[[{"start":12.05,"text":"King Dollar is back on its throne. "},{"start":14.629000000000001,"text":"The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six other important currencies, is near its 20-year high. "},{"start":21.234,"text":"The rise of the haven currency amid higher rates, a European war and global shortages is casting a long shadow. "}],[{"start":28.57,"text":"For companies with revenues overseas, the headache is the hit to earnings. "},{"start":32.949,"text":"The impact on the $23tn US Treasury market is a real, though less obvious, snag. "},{"start":39.016999999999996,"text":"Against the Japanese yen, the dollar has gained more than 18 per cent since late September. "},{"start":44.172,"text":"The yen’s fall against the buck risks cutting Japanese demand for US government debt. "}],[{"start":49.769999999999996,"text":"As the dollar rises, foreign investors have to pay more for currency hedges, which cuts into their returns. "},{"start":56.023999999999994,"text":"Although the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly hit 2.97 per cent this month, the yield in effect falls to just 1.32 per cent once you factor in yen-dollar hedging costs. "},{"start":66.679,"text":"These now stand at 1.65 percentage points, a two-year high. "}],[{"start":71.57,"text":"Japanese institutions sold a hefty $74bn of Treasuries in March, according to data released last week. "},{"start":78.67399999999999,"text":"While the Asian country remains the largest foreign holder of US government bonds, its $1.23tn holding is at its lowest level since January 2020. "}],[{"start":88.97,"text":"The sell-off may have been exacerbated by Japanese money managers booking profits for the fiscal year, which ends in March. "},{"start":95.67399999999999,"text":"Even so, the fall is 2.5 times greater than the largest previous sale by Japanese investors in a single month, according to TD Securities. "}],[{"start":104.68,"text":"China, the second-largest overseas holder of Treasuries, also reduced its holdings for the fourth consecutive month in March. "},{"start":112.10900000000001,"text":"Since November, it has sold more than $41bn of US government debt. "}],[{"start":117.88000000000001,"text":"Sustained selling would be a problem for the Federal Reserve. "},{"start":121.459,"text":"The US central bank is counting on foreign investors to help absorb the increased supply of Treasuries that is coming on to the market as it ends its pandemic-era bond-buying programme. "},{"start":130.827,"text":"Fed boss Jay Powell will just have to hope that steeper yields and the dollar’s haven appeal will outweigh higher hedging costs. "}],[{"start":137.07000000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/72215-1653447491.mp3"}