Fertility: childcare costs exacerbate the demographic drought

{"text":[[{"start":12.5,"text":"The Covid-19 baby bust — marked by falls of up to a  fifth in December 2020 birth rates — was shortlived. "},{"start":19.342,"text":"But a reversion to pre-pandemic trends still leaves about half the world’s population below the replacement rate of fertility. "},{"start":25.847,"text":"The economic consequences are a big issue for politicians and portfolio managers alike. "}],[{"start":31.85,"text":"For equity investors, ageing populations present opportunities as well as risks. "},{"start":36.842,"text":"Rising demand for healthcare and automation should benefit companies such as Japan’s Fanuc and Germany’s Siemens. "},{"start":42.722,"text":"Even nappy manufacturers like Japan’s Daio Paper, Nippon Paper and Unicharm can adapt to demographic trends. "},{"start":49.364000000000004,"text":"Sales of adult diapers in Japan have exceeded those for babies since 2011, says Jefferies. "}],[{"start":55.95,"text":"Sovereign bond investors are increasingly mindful of demographic risks. "},{"start":60.354,"text":"Rapidly ageing populations increase public spending on health, social care and pensions, while the tax burden is spread over fewer workers. "},{"start":68.159,"text":"Rating agency Fitch calculates that the impact of ageing costs on sovereign ratings could result in a 10.5-notch downgrade for Slovakia, the most extreme case, by 2070 assuming no policy changes. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":80.92,"text":"Governments do have some levers to pull, though not all factors are easily addressed. "},{"start":85.724,"text":"Fears over climate change are impacting fertility rates quicker than any preceding trend in the field of fertility decline, Morgan Stanley said last year. "}],[{"start":94.3,"text":"But helping parents financially is one obvious way to lower barriers. "},{"start":98.37899999999999,"text":"The high cost of bringing up children gobbles up a big share of disposable income in some countries, particularly in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and China. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":108.78,"text":"Those who become parents often stop at one child, as bedroom sharing and hand-me-down clothes do not cut costs by much. "},{"start":115.72200000000001,"text":"Three-children families shave the per-child costs by just a quarter, versus those who have two, reckons the US government. "}],[{"start":123.45,"text":"Countries that provide generous financial support appear to have more births. "},{"start":127.754,"text":"Nordic countries, noted for their gender equality and generous welfare states, have birth rates that are close to replacement levels. "},{"start":134.834,"text":"Providing financial support for childcare, making it easier to combine work and parenthood, is particularly effective, according to the OECD. "}],[{"start":144.1,"text":"For all the many rewards that children bring, they are financially draining. "},{"start":148.279,"text":"They bring economic benefits, but these are not reaped by the parents who bear the brunt of the costs. "},{"start":153.322,"text":"Boosting the former may require more sharing of the latter. "}],[{"start":156.51999999999998,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/71159-1652620123.mp3"}