三、長壽時代對社會經濟的影響
C. The socio-economic impact of the age of longevity
長壽時代下，社會經濟發展面臨挑戰和機遇。根據柯布-道格拉斯生產函數，經濟成長主要受勞動力、資本和科技進步的影響。在長壽時代上述變數都會發生顯著變化，進而對宏觀經濟產生深遠影響。一些研究認爲，老齡人口比例增加將導致經濟成長放緩，或因爲勞動力供給不足，或因爲社會的儲蓄率降低造成資本形成率低，或因爲老齡化社會創新力不足等（陸暘、蔡昉，2014；馬學禮、陳志恆，2014；周助平、劉海斌，2016）。長壽時代的社會還面臨財富不平等加劇的挑戰，低收入羣體的境況在長壽時代可能進一步惡化，他們的生存需求和健康需求對社會保障提出更高要求，公共財政也面臨更大壓力。
The age of longevity will pose challenges and opportunities for socio-economic development. According to the Cobb-Douglas production function, economic growth is mainly determined by labour, capital and technological progress. In the age of longevity, these variables will change significantly, and this will have a profound impact on the macro-economy. Some studies claim that an increase in the proportion of the elderly population will lead to a slowdown in economic growth, either because of an insufficient labour supply, or because of a reduction in the overall savings rate, resulting in a low capital formation rate, or because of the lack of innovation in an ageing society, amongst others (Lu Yang and Cai Fang, 2014; Ma Xueli and Chen Zhiheng, 2014; Zhou Zhuping and Liu Haibin, 2016). Society in the age of longevity will also face the challenge of increasing wealth inequality. The situatios of low-income groups may further worsen in the age of longevity, and their survival and health needs will increase the demands placed on social security, while also placing public finances under increased pressure.
但另一方面，當人們活得更長、更健康，並繼續積極參與經濟活動，長壽也將成爲社會的財富來源。最新研究表明長壽時代未必會出現經濟增速下行，主要原因是自動化技術的普及應用有效替代了下降的勞動力（Acemoglu and Restrepo，2017）。長壽正在定義未來，給經濟和社會帶來新的供給和需求，爲各個年齡段的人提供創新、就業和經濟成長的新機會。沃頓商學院人力資源中心主任彼得·卡普利（Peter Cappelli）主持的美國老年學協會的《長壽經濟學》課題提出社會和經濟應最大限度地利用長壽，消除年齡歧視，促進長壽經濟的發展。
On the other hand, however, as people live longer, more healthily, and continue to actively participate in economic activity, longevity will also become a source of wealth for society. The latest research indicates that the age of longevity may not necessarily translate to a drop in the economic growth rate, mainly because the widespread application of automated technologies will have effectively replaced the declining labour force (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017). Longevity is currently defining our future, bringing new supply and demand to the economy and society, and providing new opportunities for innovation, employment and economic growth to people of all ages. The American Gerontological Association』s Longevity Economics project, chaired by Peter Cappelli, director of the Centre for Human Resources at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, proposed that society and the economy should maximise the use of longevity, eliminate age discrimination, and promote the development of a longevity economy.
（一）長壽時代下社會經濟面臨的挑戰
(a) The challenges facing society and the economy in the age of longevity
1.長壽時代勞動力人口供給降低，衝擊傳統的工業化組織形態
1. The labour supply will be reduced in the age of longevity, impacting traditional labour organisation patterns
勞動力是經濟成長的核心因素之一。一方面，勞動力作爲主要的生產要素，其數量成長可以推動生產成長；另一方面，勞動力人口也可以爲社會提供廣泛的終端需求，拉動相關產業的發展（施錦芳，2015）。然而，進入長壽時代後，出生率明顯下降，年輕人口占比乃至絕對數量減少，新增勞動力人口規模下滑，因此對經濟發展將產生負面影響。
The labour force is a core factor in economic growth. On the one hand, the labour force is a main input of production, and its numerical growth can drive production growth, while on the other, the working age population can also provide a wide range of end-user needs for society, and stimulate the development of associated industries (Shi Jingfang, 2015). However, entering the age of longevity has led to a significant drop in the birth rate, concomitantly bringing about a reduction in the young population, both in terms of proportion and even absolute numbers, while the size of the new labour population has also declined, which will have a negative impact on economic development.
勞動力的長週期下滑可能對人類傳統的工業化組織形態造成衝擊。工業化時代，生產組織形式從家庭逐漸演化到工廠和企業，生產的聚集性明顯提升。勞動力人口大量聚集帶動工業化和城鎮化。同時，社會化大生產促進了社會分工，勞動效率持續提升，勞動力需求持續上漲，產出水準持續提高。當人類仍處於高生育率階段，勞動力供給源源不斷，可以滿足生產需要。同時勞動力人口占比較高還會形成高儲蓄和高投資的局面，稱爲第一次人口紅利。歷史上看，凡是成功實現工業化的國家，無論是英國、美國還是日本以及改革開放以來的中國，大都享受了第一次人口紅利，經濟也獲得了高速發展。
The long-term decline of the labour force may have an impact on the traditional industrial organisation patterns in human society. In the industrialised era, production organisation forms gradually evolved from the family into factories and companies, significantly improving the concentration of production. This massive concentration of the labour force was the driving force behind industrialisation and urbanisation. At the same time, large-scale social production encouraged the social division of labour, and labour efficiency has continued to rise, demand for labour has continued to expand, and output levels have continued to climb. When mankind was still at the high-fertility stage, there was a continuous supply of labour to satisfy production needs. At the same time, the relatively high working-age proportion of the population also resulted in high levels of savings and investment, creating the so-called first demographic dividend. Historically speaking, every country which has successfully achieved industrialisation, be it the United Kingdom, United States, Japan or China following opening up and liberalisation, has enjoyed this first demographic dividend, and their economies have developed at a rapid pace.
長壽時代面臨勞動力供給的挑戰。由於出生率不斷下降，年輕勞動力數量將在長週期出現萎縮，部分工廠和企業將面臨無人可用的局面。這一趨勢目前在日本已經有所體現。日本民間企業信譽調查機構——東京商工調查所數據顯示，2019年日本因「人手不足」而負債1000萬日元以上並因此破產的企業數量達426家，比上一年增加10%，是該因素被納入統計以來數量最多的一年。可用勞動力的減少將會對人類的生產產生深遠影響，一方面將迫使傳統工業企業加速智慧化、自動化轉型，從而降低生產活動對勞動力的需求。另一方面，長期的勞動力短缺也可能會對工業化的組織形式產生衝擊。由於技術進步將降低生產對人力資源的依賴，人類有可能演化出新的組織和生產形式，以應對新增勞動力資源下降帶來的挑戰，我們將在後面的部分予以討論。
The labour supply challenges to be faced in the age of longevity. The declining birth rate means that the young labour force will shrink over the longer term, and certain factories and companies will face skills shortages. This trend is already apparent in Japan. According to data from Tokyo Shoko Research, a Japanese credit research agency for private companies, a total of 426 companies in the country recorded losses of more than JPY10 million and were bankrupted because of 「labour shortages」, a year-on-year increase of 10%, the highest since this figure was first included in the statistics. The reduction in available labour will have a profound impact on human production. On the one hand, this will force traditional industrial companies to accelerate their shift to smart operations and transformation, thereby reducing the need for labour in production activities. On the other hand, long-term labour shortages may also have an impact on the forms of industrialised organisation. Because technological progress will reduce the reliance of production on human resources, mankind may evolve new forms of organisation and production in order to cope with the challenges posed by the reduction in new labour resources, and we will discuss this in the following sections.
2.長壽時代儲蓄率降低，導致資本形成率下降
2. Decreased savings rates in the age of longevity, leading to a drop in the capital formation rate
傳統經濟學理論認爲，隨著老齡人口的數量不斷上升，消費率上升，儲蓄率下降，對資本形成率產生負面影響。有研究指出，隨著老齡人口占比增加和年輕人口占比減少，人口撫養比將會上升，導致撫養支出增加、儲蓄率下降（陸暘、蔡昉，2014），而儲蓄率下降則會導致資本形成率（資本形成佔GDP的比重）降低。另有研究也表明了類似觀點：人口老齡化最終會導致生產性人口相對乃至絕對減少，消費性人口相對乃至絕對增加（李軍、劉生龍，2017）。因此，一個社會的老齡人口比重越高，意味著其分享產出成果的比例越高，可用於生產投資的產出比例相對較小，宏觀上就會導致國民儲蓄率下降、消費率上升，不利於資本積累。在全球角度看，美聯準前主席格林斯潘甚至提出人口老齡化使全球投資資源萎縮⑥。
Traditional economic theory believes that as the elderly continue to increase in number, the consumption rate rises, the savings rate drops, and this has a negative impact on the capital formation rate. Certain studies note that as the elderly proportion of the population increases and the younger proportion get smaller, the population dependency ratio will increase, leading to an increase in dependency expenditure and a drop in the savings rate (Lu Yan and Cai Fang, 2014), while a decline in the savings rate will in turn lead to a drop in the capital formation rate (the ratio of capital formation to GDP). Other studies also highlight a similar view: an ageing population will eventually lead to a relative or even absolute decline in the working-age population, and a relative or even absolute increase in the consumer population (Li Jun and Liu Shenglong, 2017). Therefore, the higher the elderly proportion of the population in a society, the higher the proportion of its consumed output. The proportion of output which can be used for investing in production is therefore relatively smaller, which will lead to a decline in the national savings rate and an increase in the consumption rate at the macro level, which is not conducive to capital accumulation. From a global perspective, former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has even proposed that the elderly population will shrink global investment resources (6).
與之相應，第二次人口紅利理論認爲，人口結構變化過程中，人力資本回報水準變高，個體會調整消費和儲蓄行爲，透過個人資產配置和延長勞動力供給年限等方式應對未來的不確定性，促使社會財富積累增加。更進一步，老齡人口占比增加將導致社會勞動力下降，因此資本/勞動比率上升可以推動經濟成長，該過程將對沖社會整體儲蓄率下降的效果。然而第二次人口紅利能否真正釋放，仍然依賴許多外部性和制度性因素。一方面，老年人從生產者變成純粹的消費者，不斷消耗其資本積累。減緩老年人的資本消耗則要求社會建立起更全面、更包容的養老制度和服務體系。另一方面，人均資本的提升要轉化爲經濟成長需要依賴外部的制度性建設，尤其是資本市場的建設。
Correspondingly, the second demographic dividend theory believes that as part of the process of demographic change, the return on human capital will increase, while individuals will adjust their consumption and savings behaviour, and respond to future uncertainty through the accumulation of personal assets and their extended presence in the labour force, inter alia, promoting the increased accumulation of social wealth. Furthermore, the increase in the elderly proportion of the population will lead to a decline in the labour force. It is therefore possible for an increase in the capital/labour ratio to drive economic growth, a process which will hedge against a decline in the overall social savings rate. However, the actual triggering of the second demographic dividend is still reliant on a large number of external and institutional factors. On the one hand, as the elderly change from producers into pure consumers, they are constantly consuming their accumulated capital. Reducing capital consumption by the elderly requires that society establish a more comprehensive and inclusive pension and services system. On the other hand, the transformation of the increased per capita capital into economic growth is dependent on the construction of external institutions, and that of capital markets in particular.
3.長壽時代勞動力老化，影響社會創新效率
3. The ageing of the labour force in the age of longevity will impact the efficiency of innovation
長壽時代面臨整個社會創新效率的挑戰。人類的創新活動並非平均分佈在整個生命週期中。研究表明，個人創新能力隨著年齡的成長而呈倒「U」型曲線，老年人的學習能力、創新能力、開拓進取能力不如年輕人，勞動力老化將對勞動生產率提高和科技創新動力提升帶來不利影響（馬學禮、陳志恆，2014）。此外，長壽時代將延長人類的工作年限，年長者處於組織內重要位置的時長也會相應增加，年輕人升遷難度加大，有可能限制創新才能和創新意願的發展。綜上，長壽時代可能會對社會整體創新效率有負面影響。
The age of longevity faces the challenge of innovation and efficiency across society as a whole. Man』s innovation activity is unevenly distributed across their entire life cycle. Studies have shown that personal capacity for innovation forms an inverted 「U」 curve with age. Older people do not have the same ability to learn, to innovate and to strike out on their own as their younger counterparts. The ageing of the labour force will have an adverse impact on the increase in labour productivity and the drive towards scientific and technological innovation (Ma Xueli, Chen Zhiheng, 2014). In addition, the age of longevity will extend the working lives of human beings, and the length of time that the elderly hold important positions in an organisation will also increase correspondingly. It will become increasingly difficult for the young to achieve promotion, which may limit the development of innovative talent and the willingness to innovate. In summary, the age of longevity may have a negative impact on overall social innovation efficiency.
4.長壽時代社會不平等程度加深
4. The rising inequality in the age of longevity
長壽時代的到來本身也可能加劇財富的不平等。爲了研究其作用機制，可將社會人口分爲年輕人口和老齡人口兩組。從組內角度看，長壽時代可能導致收入和消費的差異隨時間延長不斷擴大。同齡人之間消費和收入的差異將隨著年齡的成長而擴大，因爲個體的收入和消費受自身教育、職業、健康狀況、家庭背景等因素的影響，而這些差異會隨著時間的推移不斷放大（Deaton and Paxon，1997；Chen et al.，2017）。例如，腦體勞動者收入的剪刀差長期存在。近年來由於勞動成本的上升，上述情況有所緩解。但腦力勞動者可以透過經驗積累、不斷學習等方式降低人力資本下降速度，而體力勞動者的勞動能力直接受其身體健康狀況影響，隨著年齡增大，喪失勞動能力的風險不斷升高，因此長期看二者的收入差距有可能拉大。中國1996~2009年的收入和消費數據顯示，人口老齡化確實會加劇組內收入不平等（董志強等，2012）。
The onset of the age of longevity itself may also exacerbate wealth inequality. In order to understand how this works, let』s divide the population into two groups: the younger and older populations. When viewed from a group perspective, the age of longevity may cause differences in income and consumption to expand continuously over time. Differences in consumption and income among people of the same age will widen with age, because individual income and consumption are all affected by an individual』s education, profession, state of health, family background and other factors, and these differences will continue to change and magnify over time (Deaton and Paxon, 1997; Chen et al., 2017). For example, the scissor gap in the incomes of white-collar workers is by no means a new phenomenon, although rising labour costs have led to a certain easing of this situation in recent years. However, white-collar workers are able to reduce their rate of decline in human capital through their accumulated experience, and ongoing learning, etc. By contrast, the ability to work of blue-collar workers is influenced by their own state of health. As they get older, the risk that they will lose their ability to work continues to increase, such that over the longer term, the income gap between the two may widen. China』s income and consumption data for the 1996-2009 period shows that the elderly population will indeed exacerbate inequalities in income within the group (Dong Zhiqiang et al., 2012).
從組間角度看，長壽時代可能拉大年輕人口和老齡人口的收入差距。在現行的工作模式和退休制度下，長壽時代將會產生更多不直接參與生產的老齡人口，這部分人口不參加第一次分配，而主要參與第二次分配。然而，由於社會建構的因素影響，老年人在第二次分配中也不佔據主導地位，因此老齡人口的經濟狀況主要取決於年輕時的財富積累。隨著老齡人口的不斷成長，參與社會生產的年輕人和不參與社會生產的老年人之間的財富差距將不斷拉大，進而導致社會不平等程度加深。
From an inter-group perspective, the age of longevity may widen the income gap between the younger and older populations. Under the current working model and retirement system, the age of longevity will produce more elderly people who no longer participate directly in production. This segment of the population does not participate in primary distribution, but instead mainly participates in secondary distribution. However, because of the influence of social-constructed factors, the elderly similarly fail to occupy any dominant position in secondary distribution, meaning that the economic status of the elderly population is mainly determined by their accumulation of wealth when they are young. As the elderly population continues to grow, the wealth gap between the young, who participate in social production, and the elderly, who do not, will continue to widen, leading to further social inequality.
與收入不平等伴生的是健康不平等問題。低收入羣體由於缺乏營養、無法有效獲取醫療資源等多重因素導致健康狀況相對更差。研究指出，中國老齡人口的健康不平等也日益凸顯（杜本峯、王旋，2013）。綜上所述，長壽時代一部分老齡弱勢羣體可能會面臨貧病交加的境況，他們需要社會更多關注和支援，同時也對現行的福利制度和公共財政提出更高要求。
Hand in hand with income inequality comes the issue of health inequality. The relatively poor state of health of low-income groups is attributable to factors including a lack of nutrition, and an inability to effectively access medical resources, inter alia. Studies have shown that health inequalities in China』s elderly population are increasingly significant (Du Benfeng and Wang Xuan, 2013). In summary, certain elderly and vulnerable groups may be faced with poverty and disease in the age of longevity. They must receive greater attention and support from society at large, while a higher standard must at the same time also be established for the current welfare system and public finances.
（二）長壽時代下社會經濟發展的機遇
(b) Opportunities for socio-economic development in the age of longevity
1.長壽時代技術進步對勞動力的替代率提升
1. Technological progress in the age of longevity is increasing the labour force replacement rate
在前文的分析中，我們從理論層面列舉了老齡人口占比增加對經濟成長可能產生的一些負面影響。但是，針對OECD國家1960年至2011年的實證研究顯示，人均GDP的變化和老齡人口占比的關係並不顯著（Gehringer and Prettner，2017）。
In the previous analysis, we listed some of the negative effects of the elderly proportion of the population in economic growth at the theoretical level. However, empirical research focusing on OECD countries between 1960 and 2011 shows that the relationship between changes in per capita GDP and the elderly proportion of the population is statistically insignificant (Gehringer and Prettner, 2017).
理論層面與實證分析的偏離可能源於人們低估了長壽時代技術進步對勞動力的替代效應，而當前老齡化進程較快的國家卻往往是自動化技術發展較快的國家。Acemoglu和Restrepo（2017）的理論文章從兩方面討論了勞動力減少對經濟的影響。一方面勞動力下降導致總產出下降，另一方面由於勞動力的下降會內生性地激發產業自動化和機器人產業的發展，最終的總產出並不一定下降。後者會發生主要是當資本和勞動力的缺口足夠大時，資本變得比勞動力更便宜，透過資本轉化的機器代替勞動力變得有利可圖。另有研究指出長壽對技術進步和生產力成長產生積極影響，其對OECD國家的實證分析證實了這一理論（Gehringer and Prettner，2017）。
The divergence between the theoretical level and empirical analysis may stem from an underestimation of the substitution effect of technological progress on the labour force in the age of longevity, whereas countries with a relatively fast ageing process are often countries in which automation technologies have developed relatively rapidly. A theoretical article by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) discusses the impact of a shrinkage of the labour force on the economy from two aspects. The decline in the labour force on the one hand leads to a drop in total output, while on the other, it provides an endogenous stimulus to the development of industrial automation and robotic industries, such that final total output may not necessarily decline. The latter occurs mainly when capital is relatively abundant and labour is relatively scarce. In this case, capital becomes cheaper than labour, and it becomes profitable to replace the labour force with machinery through the transformation of capital. Another study points out that longevity has a positive impact on technological progress and productivity growth, and its empirical analysis of OECD countries confirms this theory (Gehringer and Prettner, 2017).
2.「長壽經濟」創造新的供給與需求
2. New supply and demand created by the 「Longevity Economy」
隨著老齡人口增多，老年人的消費成爲經濟的重要組成部分，但目前這種消費觀念是工業時代建立的，認爲老年人退出勞動力市場，保持老年人健康的唯一方法就是休息。根據歐盟委員會的一項研究顯示，主導老年人消費的是保健品和照料服務，在這個觀念下，有學者將此稱爲銀髮經濟。雖然這是社會整體消費的重要部分，但不可否認的是，這部分消費對社會整體的投資和消費擠出效應更大，並且在勞動力市場上爭奪年輕勞動力，引發人力資源的危機。消耗性的老年人消費加速社會總體資源的危機，反過來，社會總體資源的危機又加劇老齡人口生活拮据的困難，所以銀髮經濟對經濟的正面影響極其有限（Caplan，2014）。
As the elderly population grows, consumption by the elderly will become an important part of the economy, but this concept of consumption has so far been established in the industrial era: it assumes that the elderly have withdrawn from the labour market, and that the only way to preserve the health of the elderly is to allow them to rest. According to a study by the European Commission, health products and care services dominate the consumption of the elderly, a proposal which some scholars call the silver-haired economy. Although this comprises a significant part of overall social consumption, it cannot be denied that this consumption segment has a greater crowding-out effect on overall social investment and consumption, and competes for young labour in the employment market, triggering a human resources crisis. Expendable consumption by the elderly accelerates the overall crisis in social resources. Conversely, the crisis in overall social resources exacerbates the everyday hardships of the elderly population, meaning that the positive impact of the silver-haired economy on the economy is extremely limited (Caplan, 2014).
與銀髮經濟強調老年人的消耗性消費不同，真正適應長壽時代社會經濟結構的是更有活力的長壽經濟。在長壽經濟的概念下，老年人除作爲消費者外，同時還擔任著生產者和創新者的角色，在消費端和供給端同時推動經濟成長和社會進步。我們正處於一個科技驅動的轉型期，對體力勞動的需求在持續減少或者可以被機器人所代替，網路正在重新組合生產要素，使得空間上的移動需求大大減少，人工智慧正在與人類智力結合。老年人的價值將被重新認識、定位和發掘，而不是停留在社會資源的消耗者這個刻板的定位上。運用新思路讓老年人透過更靈活的方式參與勞動力市場，傳授知識技能、傳遞經驗或者進行社會服務工作，讓老年人「持續」生產和創新，創造屬於他們自己的「第三次人口紅利」。正如美國麻省理工學院老齡實驗室（AgeLab）的約瑟夫·庫格林（Joseph Coughlin）教授在《長壽經濟》一書中指出，長壽世界的未來取決於老年人在其中的行動（Coughlin，2017）。
Unlike the silver-haired economy, which emphasises expendable consumption by the elderly, the longevity economy is more dynamic, and truly adapted to the socio-economic structure of the age of longevity. Under the concept of the longevity economy, the elderly act not only as consumers, but also at the same time as producers and innovators, promoting economic growth and social progress on both the demand and supply sides simultaneously. We are currently in a technology-driven period of transformation, in which demand for manual labour is continuously decreasing or being replaced by robots. The Internet is combining the factors of production in completely new ways, greatly reducing the need for spatial mobility, and artificial intelligence is now being combined with human intelligence. The value of the elderly will once again be recognised, positioned and explored, instead of remaining static in a fixed role as a consumer of social resources. New lines of thinking will be used to enable the elderly to participate more flexibly in the labour market, share their knowledge and skills, impart their experience or engage in social service, so that the elderly can 「sustain」 production and innovation, and create their own 「third demographic dividend」. As Professor Joseph Coughlin of MIT』s AgeLab notes in his book, The Longevity Economy, the future of the longevity world will be dependent on the activities of the elderly in it (Coughlin, 2017).
長壽經濟是老齡人口推動的所有經濟活動及其連鎖反應的總和。一方面，世界上幾乎每個國家老齡人口的比例都將增加，市場需求非常龐大且可以預見成長。老年人透過不斷變化的需求推動大量新產品和服務併爲其提供資金，特別是那些採用技術創新的產品和服務，以直接、間接或者引導的方式形成和改變市場，締造全新的長壽經濟。波士頓諮詢集團（Boston Consulting Group）預計，到2030年，美國55歲以上的人口將佔美國自2008年以來消費支出成長的50%，日本和德國的這一數字分別升至67%和86%。美國退休人員協會（AARP）預測，老年人對於經濟和社會的貢獻舉足輕重，且2050年之前隨著老齡人口的增加都將持續上升。例如，2018年，美國50歲及以上人口直接消費支出7.6兆美元，佔全部人口的56%，至2050年將達27.5兆美元，佔比將提升至61%。這些趨勢將爲未來30多年的經濟成長奠定基礎。另一方面，人們在過了退休年齡之後繼續參與勞動力市場，繼續工作或創業，繼續賺取和支出工資，其經濟活動的貢獻持續增加，持續推動經濟成長。在許多情況下，老年人的生產力和創造力甚至可能隨著年齡的成長而提高。一個常被提及的現象是，年長的勞動力大多受僱於知識密集型行業，具備更多的知識技能和經驗，並因此更有價值。事實上，這些知識技能和經驗的積累也有助於創業。據美國退休人員協會（AARP）統計，在美國，50歲及以上人士的創業率最高，約爲20多歲人士的2倍，他們建立了美國近1/3的創業企業。尊重老年人，讓他們有機會持續爲僱主發揮自己的知識技能和經驗，或者創業，這將使他們成爲振興經濟的更強大的力量。
The longevity economy is the sum of all the economic activities driven by the elderly population and their chain reactions. On the one hand, the proportion of the elderly population will increase in almost every country worldwide, forming very high market demand with predictable growth. The elderly are driving and providing funding for a large number of new products and services through their continuously changing needs, particularly those products and services which make use of innovative technologies to shape and alter the market, either directly, indirectly or in a guided manner, creating a brand-new longevity economy. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that by 2030, the US population aged 55 years and above will account for 50% of the increase in consumer spending since 2008; for Japan and Germany, this figure is 67% and 86% respectively. The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) forecasts that the contribution of the elderly to the economy and society will be significant, and will continue to increase together with the elderly population until 2050. For example, in 2018, direct consumption expenditure by the American population aged 50 years and above totalled USD 7.6 trillion, accounting for 56% of the total population. By 2050, this will have reached USD 27.5 trillion, accounting for 61%. These trends will provide the foundations for economic growth over the next 30 years. On the other hand, as people continue to participate in the labour market after they reach retirement age, continue working either as employees or as entrepreneurs, and continue to learn and spend their wages, their contribution to economic activity will continue to increase, and continue to drive economic growth. In many cases, the productivity and creativity of the elderly may even increase with age. A frequently mentioned phenomenon is that the older workforce is mostly employed in knowledge-intensive industries, with greater knowledge skills and experience, and is therefore more valuable. In fact, these accumulated knowledge skills and experience are also useful in entrepreneurship. American Association of Retired Persons statistics show that in the US, people aged 50 years and above have the highest rates of entrepreneurship (about twice that of people in their 20s), and they make up almost one-third of start-ups in the US. Respecting the elderly and giving them the opportunity to continue to apply their knowledge, skills and experience on behalf of their employers, or as entrepreneurs, will make them an even more powerful force for revitalising the economy.
長壽經濟蘊含巨大的商業機會，其經濟收益不可估量，將吸引越來越多的企業、機構和投資者參與其中。這些商業機會超越我們現有的規範界限，因爲新時代的老年人在平均意義上比上一代更爲富裕，且更多受過高等教育，其財富水準和支出方式持續演進，習慣於創新驅動的市場。企業、機構和投資者在突破傳統思維方式、持續創新面向老年人的產品和服務的過程中，需要真正去理解老年人的多元化需求，應在滿足基本生理或安全需求之外，更好地滿足老年人更高層次的需求，例如適老化的科技產品、提升生活質量的消費醫療產品以及滿足繼續發展需求的教育文化產品等。
The longevity economy encompasses huge business opportunities, its economic potentials are immeasurable, and it will attract participation from ever greater numbers of businesses, institutions and investors. These business opportunities go far beyond our existing normative boundaries, because in this new era, the elderly are on average wealthier and more educated than the generation that came before them, and their wealth levels and spending patterns are continuing to evolve, accustomed as they are to innovation-driven markets. In the process of breaking through traditional ways of thinking and continuously innovating products and services for the elderly, businesses, institutions and investors must gain a real understanding of the diverse needs of the elderly, and in addition to being able to meet their basic physiological or safety needs, must be better able to meet the higher-level needs of the elderly, such as elder-friendly technology products, consumer medical products that improve their quality of life, and education and cultural products which meet their need for continued development, inter alia.
企業、機構和投資者還需爲老年人參與經濟活動、創造價值、建設和影響周圍的世界全面賦能，例如鼓勵老年人參與創新、爲老年人提供工作崗位和適老化環境、爲老年人提升競爭力創造條件等等，從而增加老年人的收入。以汽車製造商爲例，BMW爲了留住技術熟練、經驗豐富的老齡工人，改造生產線、創造合適的工作環境以便讓其繼續工作。2011年新生產線應用於其在德國丁戈林（Dingolfing）的一個大型新工廠，該工廠完全由50歲及以上的工人運營。此外，BMW、奧迪、大衆等汽車製造商均在創新實驗穿戴式機器人——外骨骼，透過減輕關節負擔並增強力量來提升老齡工人的生產力和競爭力。長壽經濟在某些特定領域表現尤爲顯著，主要包括金融服務和保險（Migliaccio，2019）、醫療健康和科技，這些特定行業正被推向創新和拓展的新方向，例如無齡感的智慧家居技術、無人駕駛等。
Businesses, institutions and investors must also fully empower the elderly to participate in economic activity, create value, build and influence the world around them, for example by encouraging the elderly to participate in innovation, by providing jobs and elder-friendly environments for the elderly, and creating the right conditions for the elderly to improve their competitiveness, inter alia, thereby increasing their income. Let』s take the car manufacturer BMW as an example: in order to retain their older workers with their technological skills and wealth of experience, the company transformed the design of their production line, creating a suitable working environment so that they could continue working. In 2011, the new production line was introduced at a large new plant in Dingolfing, in Germany, entirely operated by employees aged 50 years and above. In addition, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen and other vehicle manufacturers are all innovating and experimenting with wearable robots – exoskeletons to increase the productivity and competitiveness of elderly workers by increasing physical strength and reducing the burden on joints. The longevity economy has made particularly notable inroads in a number of areas, mainly including financial services and insurance (Migliaccio, 2019), healthcare and technology. These specific industries are being pushed to innovate and expand in new directions, such as ageless smart home technologies, autonomous vehicles, and much more.
發展長壽經濟有利於緩解社會不平等。市場將圍繞老年人的多元化需求形成豐富的業態，爲老年羣體的健康生活和順利工作提供更細緻的服務和支撐。同時，更多的老年人將參與到生產創造中。老年人在崗時間的延長和收入成長能一定程度上緩解養老金替代率不足的問題，也有利於減輕對於勞動人口比例下降導致財富差距擴大的擔憂。
Developing the longevity economy will help alleviate social inequality. The market will form a rich business environment based on the diverse needs of the elderly, and provide more finely tuned services and support to ensure the healthy lives and occupational comfort of elderly groups. At the same time, more elderly people will participate in production and creation. The extension of the employment of elderly people and income growth will to a certain degree be able to alleviate the issue of the insufficient pension replacement rate, and will also help to alleviate the concern that a decline in the proportion of the working population will lead to a widening of the wealth gap.
在網路、人工智慧、機器人等技術不斷進步的基礎上，長壽經濟作爲一種新的經濟模式，在全球老齡人口占比上升的大趨勢中，將成爲全球經濟的驅動力，並造福於各年齡層和各代人。隨著人口預期壽命的延長，個體在較長的生命週期內學習、生產、生活的方式發生巨大轉變，經濟和社會價值也隨之整體轉變，長壽經濟變得更爲普遍，充分激發「第三次人口紅利」，進而成爲經濟和社會的核心之一。
Based on the continued progress of the Internet, artificial intelligence, robotics and other technologies, the longevity economy will act as a new economic model, and become the force driving the global economy and benefiting people of all ages amidst a trend in which the elderly proportion of the population is generally increasing. As the population』s life expectancy rises, the ways in which individuals study, produce and live throughout their extended life cycles will undergo massive changes. Economic and social values will also undergo wholesale change, and the longevity economy will become more widespread, providing wide-ranging stimulus for the 「third demographic dividend」, furthering its importance as a core focus point for the economy and society.
