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Waiting for the Tube, I see a poster for an upmarket gym chain. Locations? “City of London. High Street Kensington. Dubai.” What a shame to choose a setting that is so disfigured with bad taste and clueless expats. Still, the City and Dubai branches must be first-rate.
在等地鐵時，我看到一個高檔健身連鎖店的海報。地點？「倫敦金融城。肯辛通高街。杜拜。」選擇一個被糟糕品味和無知的外籍人士弄得面目全非的地方真是遺憾。不過，倫敦金融城和杜拜的分店一定是一流的。
Soon after, I am in Doha, and again the Euro-Gulf linkage is inescapable. The emir of Qatar is back from a state visit to Britain, where the hosts were angling for a trade deal. Swiss-headquartered Fifa has just given the World Cup hosting rights to Saudi Arabia. Even in skyscraper-free Muscat, where alleys that might have been rationalised elsewhere in the Gulf twist freely behind the corniche, three restaurants in my hotel are outposts of Mayfair brands.
不久之後，我來到了多哈，再次感受到歐洲與海灣國家的緊密聯繫。卡達的埃米爾剛剛結束對英國的國事訪問，東道主正在努力爭取一項貿易協議。總部位於瑞士的國際足聯剛剛將世界盃主辦權授予沙烏地阿拉伯。即便是在沒有摩天大樓的馬斯喀特，那裏的小巷在海灣其他地方可能會被整合，但在濱海路後面自由蜿蜒，我下榻酒店的三家餐廳都是梅費爾品牌的分店。
What a shame the word “Eurabia” is taken. And by such cranks. (It is a far-right term for a supposed plot to Islamise Europe.) Because we are going to need a word for this relationship. The Arabian peninsula has what Europe lacks: space, natural wealth and the resulting budget surpluses to invest in things. For its part, Europe has “soft” assets that Gulf states must acquire, host or emulate to carve out a post-oil role in the world. This isn’t the Gulf’s deepest external connection. Not while 38 per cent of people in the UAE and a quarter in Qatar are Indian. But it might be the most symbiotic, if I understand that word correctly.
真遺憾，「歐阿拉伯」這個詞已經被使用了，而且是被一些極端分子使用的。因爲我們需要一個詞來描述這種關係。阿拉伯半島擁有歐洲所缺乏的：空間、自然資源和由此產生的預算盈餘，可以用於投資。而歐洲則擁有海灣國家必須獲取、承載或模仿的「軟」資產，以在後石油時代在世界上佔據一席之地。這並不是海灣地區最深的外部聯繫。畢竟，阿拉伯聯合大公國(UAE)有38%的人口是印度人，卡達有四分之一的人口是印度人。但如果我理解正確的話，這可能是最具共生性的關係。
True, the US has a defence presence in all six Gulf Cooperation Council states. This includes the Saudi footprint that Osama bin Laden wasn’t super-stoked about. But everyday contact? America is a 15-hour flight away. Its soft assets are either harder to buy or less coveted. Its citizens have little fiscal incentive to live in tax havens, as Uncle Sam charges them at least some of the difference.
誠然，美國在所有六個海灣合作委員會(Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC)國家都有防務存在。這包括奧薩馬•本•拉登(Osama bin Laden)不太滿意的沙烏地足跡。但日常接觸呢？美國距離這裏有15小時的飛行路程。其軟實力資產要麼更難購買，要麼不那麼受歡迎。由於山姆大叔至少會收取一些差額，美國公民在避稅天堂生活的財政激勵很少。
It wouldn’t take much for Europe’s exposure to the Gulf to age as badly as its former porousness to Russia
歐洲對海灣地區的依賴可能會像過去對俄羅斯的依賴一樣迅速惡化。
In the 1970s, when Opec profits gushed through London, Anthony Burgess wrote a dystopia in which grand hotels became “al-Klaridges” and “al-Dorchester”. What a mental jolt it was for even the worldliest Europeans to see — we mustn’t pussyfoot around this — non-white people with more money than them. Still, they could condescend to the Gulf as being no place to live. Half a century on, their grandchildren would call that copium. In fact, their grandchildren might literally live there for economic opportunities. (Al-Dorado?) As a banker friend explains it, the time zones allow you to sleep late, trade the European markets, then dine late, so it is the young ones who do a Gulf stint, not the burnouts who are my age.
在20世紀70年代，當歐佩克的利潤湧入倫敦時，安東尼•伯吉斯(Anthony Burgess)寫了一部反烏托邦小說，其中豪華酒店變成了「al-Klaridges」和「al-Dorchester」。即使是最見多識廣的歐洲人，看到——我們不能迴避這個問題——非白人比他們更富有，也會感到精神上的震撼。不過，他們仍然可以對海灣地區表示輕蔑，認爲那裏不適合居住。半個世紀後，他們的孫輩會稱之爲「自我安慰」。事實上，他們的孫輩可能真的會爲了經濟機會而住在那裏。（al-Dorado？）正如一位銀行家朋友所解釋的那樣，時區允許你晚起，交易歐洲市場，然後晚餐，所以是年輕人去海灣地區工作，而不是像我這個年紀的油盡燈枯的人。
For how long, though? It is the sheer unlikelihood of this tryst, between a universal rights culture and monarchical absolutism, between a mostly secular continent and the home peninsula of an ancient faith, that distinguishes it from anything I can think of. A relationship can be both necessary and untenable. It wouldn’t take much — some intra-GCC violence, say, which seemed close in 2017 — for Europe’s exposure to the Gulf to age as badly as its former openness to Russia. If Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City are found to have committed financial chicanery, a chunk of Premier League history will be tainted. Because it is “just” sport, I sense people are underprepared for the backlash.
但這能持續多久呢？正是這種不太可能的結合——普遍權利文化與君主專制之間、一個大多世俗的大陸與一個古老信仰的發源地半島之間的結合——使其與我能想到的任何事情都不同。一段關係可以既是必要的又是難以維持的。只需一點點——比如2017年看似接近的海灣合作委員會內部暴力——就可能讓歐洲對海灣地區的接觸像其曾經對俄羅斯的開放一樣迅速變質。如果阿布扎比(Abu Dhabi)擁有的曼徹斯特城(Manchester City)被發現有財務欺詐行爲，那麼英超聯賽(Premier League)的一部分歷史將被玷汙。因爲這「只是」體育，我感覺人們對可能的反彈準備不足。
And it is parochial to assume that the relationship could only ever break down on one end. It is the Gulf side that has to make the awkwardest cultural adjustments. Because Europeans associate 1979 with Iran and perhaps with Margaret Thatcher, they sometimes pass over the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by zealots who thought the House of Saud had grown soft on western habits. Governments in the region assuredly don’t forget.
認爲關係只會在一方破裂是狹隘的。海灣國家需要做出最尷尬的文化調整。因爲歐洲人將1979年與伊朗，或許與瑪格麗特•撒切爾(Margaret Thatcher)聯繫在一起，他們有時會忽略狂熱分子佔領麥加大清真寺的事件，這些狂熱分子認爲沙烏地王室對西方習慣變得軟弱。該地區的政府當然不會忘記。
How far a place can liberalise without tripping a cultural wire occupies (and is answered differently in) each state, or emirate. Everyone is very nice to “Mister Janan” in his Doha hotel. But the metal scanners that must be passed on each re-entry to the building stand as a reminder of the stakes here. I wonder if Europe and the Gulf throw so much into their liaison out of a niggling doubt that it can last.
一個地方在不觸碰文化底線的情況下能開放到什麼程度，這在每個國家或酋長國都有不同的答案。在多哈的酒店裏，每個人對「嘉南先生」都非常友好。但每次重新進入大樓時必須透過的金屬探測器提醒著這裏的風險。我想知道歐洲和海灣地區是否因爲對這種關係能否持久存在一絲疑慮而投入如此之多。
Email Janan at janan.ganesh@ft.com
給嘉南發送電子郵件janan.ganesh@ft.com