{"text":[[{"start":9.38,"text":"The health risks of too much sugar have been made clear, but the billion-dollar global market to supply it is thriving. "},{"start":15.534,"text":"Sales of sweet treats remain strong, and waistlines keep expanding. "},{"start":19.802,"text":"Could weight-loss drugs now succeed where governments, scientists and doctors have failed: crushing demand for sugar? "}],[{"start":26.880000000000003,"text":"So-called glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s) contained in such drugs as Wegovy, Mounjaro and Ozempic curb users’ appetites and are being hailed as game changers for tackling obesity and potentially a range of other conditions from diabetes to addiction. "},{"start":42.434,"text":"They could also lead to an upheaval in sugar markets. "}],[{"start":45.68000000000001,"text":"Fears that Americans on GLP-1s will stop buying treats have already spooked businesses and investors. "},{"start":51.63400000000001,"text":"Mondelez and PepsiCo stocks took a hit after Walmart chief executive John Furner reported that customers on these drugs were buying fewer groceries. "},{"start":59.42700000000001,"text":"Hershey has also acknowledged experiencing a “mild impact” on sales, attributed to the growing use of GLP-1 medications. "}],[{"start":67.36000000000001,"text":"Sugar traders, for now, are brushing off concerns about weight-loss drugs’ potential to dent demand. "},{"start":73.38900000000001,"text":"Perhaps they’re battle-hardened — decades of sugar-is-bad campaigns have not made a dent in global consumption, which has quadrupled in the past 60 years, according to Professor Paul Behrens of the British Academy. "},{"start":84.29400000000001,"text":"Sweet treats still fly off the shelves in most markets, and until recently sugar prices have been riding high on weather woes and rising production costs. "}],[{"start":93.02000000000001,"text":"There are other reasons for traders’ nonchalance. "},{"start":95.849,"text":"So far, Ozempic and other drugs are pricey and only available to a small segment of wealthy consumers in developed countries. "},{"start":102.629,"text":"Even if these appetite-suppressing drugs do start reducing demand, the thinking goes, it’ll be a slow burn, giving markets and sugar producers plenty of time to adjust. "}],[{"start":112.9,"text":"But could this confidence be misplaced? "},{"start":115.40400000000001,"text":"Weight-loss drugs do work in curbing appetites. "},{"start":118.197,"text":"That makes them far more likely to reshape sugar consumption — and with it, the sugar market. "}],[{"start":124.09,"text":"Stephen Geldart of London-based sugar merchant Czarnikow believes the GLP-1 drugs are already on track to disrupt demand, starting with wealthy nations. "},{"start":132.857,"text":"“I think we’re just in the early stages of it, partly because these drugs are still quite expensive,” he told me. "},{"start":138.587,"text":"“So they’re not widespread — yet. ”"}],[{"start":141.26,"text":"That “yet” looms large. "},{"start":143.12699999999998,"text":"In the UK, for example, the government plans to roll out Mounjaro on the NHS. "},{"start":148.332,"text":"Prices are likely to drop elsewhere too, especially as pharmaceutical companies race to sell compounded versions of drugs, circumventing patents. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":157.29999999999998,"text":"If prices fall and access broadens, the ripple effects could reach middle-income and even developing markets. "},{"start":163.20399999999998,"text":"The obesity epidemic and slew of health conditions that come with it are not limited to rich western nations. "},{"start":168.59699999999998,"text":"In India, the world’s biggest sugar consumer, rates of diabetes and obesity are soaring. "},{"start":173.964,"text":"Indians consume a staggering 29mn tonnes of sugar annually — 15 per cent of global demand. "},{"start":179.91899999999998,"text":"Even a modest uptake of GLP-1s there could shake the market in ways that traders might find hard to ignore. "}],[{"start":186.60999999999999,"text":"Geldart highlights another phenomenon that should give sugar market participants pause: heavy buyers of products with high sugar levels such as ice cream, cookies and chocolate account for a disproportionate amount of sales. "},{"start":197.73899999999998,"text":"If such users cut back, there could be a big impact. "}],[{"start":201.92999999999998,"text":"Tracking sugar consumption is notoriously tricky, though. "},{"start":205.73399999999998,"text":"There’s a real risk, therefore, that these trends could develop under the radar before the industry wakes up to what’s happening. "}],[{"start":212.49999999999997,"text":"However, a quiet drop in demand could be magnified by rising supply. "},{"start":217.12899999999996,"text":"High prices over the past year have spurred a wave of sugarcane investments, particularly in Brazil. "},{"start":222.24699999999996,"text":"If production ramps up while consumption falters, the market could face a supply glut that drags prices lower and forces a painful adjustment. "},{"start":229.68899999999996,"text":"Already, prices have fallen back recently on reduced production worries. "},{"start":233.96899999999997,"text":"Raw sugar futures in New York have dropped from their November 2023 peak of 28 cents a pound, plunging this month to less than 19.50 cents. "}],[{"start":243.12999999999997,"text":"Sugar’s adaptability — it can be repurposed into ethanol for fuel or bioplastics — might provide a cushion, especially as demand for low-carbon fuels and renewable materials grows. "},{"start":253.32199999999997,"text":"Yet this transition won’t happen overnight. "}],[{"start":256.23999999999995,"text":"Until now, the sugar market has not attracted much speculative interest. "},{"start":260.69399999999996,"text":"But how long before short sellers seize an opportunity to get a slice of the Ozempic pie? "}],[{"start":265.34999999999997,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftmailbox.cn/album/186942-1735788339.mp3"}