尊敬的用戶您好，這是來自FT中文網的溫馨提示：如您對更多FT中文網的內容感興趣，請在蘋果應用商店或谷歌應用市場搜尋「FT中文網」，下載FT中文網的官方應用。
Financial history is littered with weird and wonderful examples of collateral. In the 19th century, for instance, Peru used its future earnings from guano — a substance made from bat, bird and seal droppings — to secure loans for large-scale projects. The pooey mixture was an effective fertiliser, and readily available in the nearby Chincha Islands. Today, securities are thankfully less pungent, though not necessarily less toxic. Dodgy mortgage-backed securities helped trigger the 2008 financial crisis. What, then, to make of the latest financial innovation: collateralised artificial intelligence chips?
金融史上充斥著各種稀奇古怪的抵押品例子。例如，在19世紀，祕魯利用鳥糞石（一種由蝙蝠、鳥類和海豹排洩物形成的物質）的未來收益，爲大型項目貸款作擔保。這種糞便混合物是一種高效肥料，在附近的欽查羣島很容易獲得。如今，令人慶幸的是，證券不再那麼刺鼻，但毒性未必變小了。善於騙人的抵押貸款支援證券引發了2008年的金融危機。那麼，如何看待最新的金融創新：以人工智慧晶片作爲貸款抵押品？
The Financial Times has reported that Wall Street’s largest financial institutions had loaned more than $11bn to “neocloud” groups, backed by their possession of Nvidia’s AI chips. These companies include names such as CoreWeave, Crusoe and Lambda, and provide cloud computing services to tech businesses building AI products. They have acquired tens of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) through partnerships with the chipmaker. And with capital expenditure on data centres surging, in the rush to develop AI models, the company’s chips have become a precious commodity.
據英國《金融時報》報導，華爾街最大金融機構已向「新雲端」集團提供了超過110億美元貸款，抵押品是這些公司擁有的輝達人工智慧晶片。這些公司包括CoreWeave、Crusoe和Lambda等，它們爲打造人工智慧產品的科技企業提供雲端計算服務。它們透過與輝達合作，獲得了數以萬計的輝達GPU。隨著數據中心的資本支出激增，在開發人工智慧模型的熱潮中，輝達的晶片已成爲一種珍貴的商品。
Euphoria over new technologies often goes hand in hand with financial innovation, which also reinforces it. Two centuries ago, during the railway boom in America and Britain, some railroad companies secured loans to lay more tracks, backed in part by their existing routes. Neoclouds are emulating them today. They provide data storage infrastructure for AI developers via power-purchase agreements. The loans they obtain from the likes of Blackstone, Pimco, Carlyle and BlackRock, secured by Nvidia chips, then allow them to buy more chips. In the event of a default, the lenders would acquire their chips and leasing contracts.
對新技術的狂熱往往伴隨著金融創新，而金融創新也會強化這種狂熱。兩個世紀前，在美國和英國的鐵路熱潮中，一些鐵路公司獲得了貸款以鋪設更多的鐵軌，部分由現有線路作爲抵押。如今，新雲端公司正在效仿它們。它們透過能源購買協議爲人工智慧開發者提供數據存儲基礎設施。他們以輝達晶片爲抵押，從黑石、太平洋投資、凱雷和貝萊德等公司獲得貸款，然後就能夠購買更多晶片。如果發生違約，貸款人將得到他們的晶片和租賃合同。
The rapid growth of a new debt market in a still nascent industry requires a note for caution. First, chips are unlikely to hold their collateral value over the long-term. Although GPU demand remains high, supply has risen as hardware reserves have been resold and could rise even further when leasing contracts expire. New chips developed by Nvidia, or its wannabe competitors, which include Microsoft, Google and Amazon, could also undermine the value of existing collateral.
在一個尚處於起步階段的行業中，新債務市場的快速成長需要謹慎對待。首先，晶片不太可能長期保持其抵押品價值。儘管GPU需求仍然很高，但隨著硬體儲備被轉售，供應量已經增加，在租賃合同到期時可能會進一步增加。輝達或其潛在競爭對手（包括微軟、谷歌和亞馬遜）開發的新晶片也可能削弱現有抵押品的價值。
Second, the deals may stretch valuations in the sector. The precise details of the arrangements between Nvidia and the neoclouds are unclear. But the chipmaker is itself an investor in some of the start-ups, which are in turn among its largest customers. Armed with Nvidia chips to secure loans, the cloud providers can then use the capital to buy more chips from Nvidia. This dynamic could inflate Nvidia’s earnings, and means the neocloud groups risk becoming highly leveraged, too. Third, the tie-ups with cloud providers could allow Nvidia to maintain the dominance of its chips, which adds to market concentration risks.
其次，這些交易可能會高估該行業的估值。目前尚不清楚輝達與這些新雲端公司之間安排的確切細節。但這家晶片製造商本身就是其中一些新創公司的投資者，而這些公司又是其最大客戶。利用輝達晶片作爲抵押獲得貸款，雲端計算提供商隨後可以利用這些資金從輝達購買更多晶片。這種做法可能會使輝達的利潤膨脹，也意味著新雲端公司也有可能變得負債過高。第三，與雲端計算提供商的合作可以讓輝達保持其晶片的主導地位，這增加了市場集中風險。
The chips-for-security trend is still young, and based on current lending volumes Wall Street’s largest financiers are perhaps not too concerned about their exposure just yet. But the development does shine a light on some risky lending, circular financing and competition dynamics that are propping up the AI boom. Investors ought to be wary of the potential pitfalls. Nvidia may be wise to draw clearer lines between its commercial and venture interests, which would support market transparency.
晶片換證券的趨勢仍處於起步階段，根據目前的借貸規模，華爾街最大的金融家目前可能還不太擔心他們的風險敞口。但這一事態發展確實揭示了支撐人工智慧熱潮的一些高風險借貸、循環融資和競爭態勢。投資者應該警惕潛在的陷阱。輝達在商業利益和風險投資利益之間劃清界限可能是明智的，這將有助於提高市場透明度。
Financial innovation is often positive, and done well, it can channel capital to growth-enhancing projects. But as billions of dollars continue to flow into AI infrastructure, the pressure on developers to generate revenue is mounting. If risky and opaque financial engineering continues to feed the frenzy, prices risk moving further from reality. In that case, the deeper and wider any pain will be should there be a correction.
金融創新往往是積極的，做得好的話，它可以將資本引向促進成長的項目。但是，隨著數十億美元繼續流入人工智慧基礎設施，開發者創收的壓力也越來越大。如果高風險和不透明的金融工程繼續助長這種狂熱，價格有可能進一步偏離現實。在這種情況下，一旦出現修正，造成的痛苦將更加深遠和廣泛。