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Will.i.am, the Grammy-award winning rapper from the Black Eyed Peas group, has long mesmerised millennials with his music. This week, however, he grabbed the attention of economists, government ministers and corporate leaders with a different tune — a vision for artificial intelligence.
來自黑眼豆豆(Black Eyed Peas)的說唱歌手、格萊美獎得主威爾•艾姆長期以來以他的音樂吸引著千禧一代。然而，本週，他以一種不同的方式吸引了經濟學家、政府部長和企業領導者的注意力——對人工智慧的願景。
As debates about AI dominated this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, will.i.am was among the loudest extolling the technology’s putative power.
在今年的達佛斯世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)上，關於人工智慧的辯論佔據了主導地位，威爾•艾姆是其中最爲熱衷於讚揚這項技術的人之一。
That is partly because it is sparking his own creativity (this week he launched the first music radio show with a bot). However, there is another reason too. He thinks AI could pull marginalised people into the mainstream economy in future years, and thus be a tool for social levelling. In particular, he told me — in a lively, expletive-laden speech on stage — he thinks AI will “break down barriers” for people “who have nothing”, in a near-unprecedented way.
這在一定程度上是因爲它激發了他自己的創造力（本週他推出了與機器人合作的第一檔音樂廣播節目）。然而，還有另一個原因。他認爲人工智慧在未來幾年可以將邊緣化的人們拉入主流經濟，併成爲社會平等的工具。特別是，他在臺上以生動、充滿粗口的演講告訴我，他認爲人工智慧將以一種前所未有的方式「打破障礙」，爲那些「一無所有」的人們提供幫助。
Is this just another bit of Davos hype? Many might think so. It is true that in recent months a host of economists have predicted that AI will deliver a big boost to growth. Michael Spence, a Stanford university professor, for example, thinks it will add at least $4tn annually to global gross domestic product.
這是達佛斯的又一次炒作嗎？許多人可能這麼認爲。的確，近幾個月來，許多經濟學家預測，人工智慧將大幅提振經濟成長。例如，史丹佛大學(Stanford university)教授邁克爾•斯賓塞(Michael Spence)認爲，這將使全球國內生產總值(GDP)每年至少增加4兆美元。
But this chatter about a putative productivity miracle usually occurs amid fears about rising social inequalities, due to the displacement of jobs. Indeed, at the start of this week’s WEF meeting, a survey from PwC revealed that a quarter of global chief executives expect generative AI to lead to headcount reductions of at least 5 per cent this year. Meanwhile, the IMF predicted that AI will change 40 per cent of all global jobs — and 60 per cent of those affected will be in developed countries.
但是關於潛在的生產力奇蹟的閒聊通常發生在對工作崗位流失的擔憂之中。事實上，在本週世界經濟論壇會議開始之際，普華永道(PwC)的一項調查顯示，全球四分之一的首席執行長預計，生成式人工智慧將導致今年至少5%的員工數量減少。與此同時，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預測，人工智慧將改變全球40%的工作崗位，其中60%受影響的將是發達國家。
More alarming still, there is a widening “digital divide” in terms of uneven levels of digital literacy and access to the technology across populations — and one that cannot be easily closed by education alone. No wonder that a poll from the Edelman public relations group shows that only 30 per cent of the global public want to embrace AI — while 35 per cent reject it.
更令人擔憂的是，「數字鴻溝」正在不斷擴大，這體現在數字素養和數字技術獲取水準的不平衡上，而單靠教育是無法輕易彌合的。難怪愛德曼(Edelman)公關集團的一項民意調查顯示，全球只有30%的公衆希望接受人工智慧，而35%的人拒絕接受人工智慧。
However, there are two key factors that help explain the alternative, more optimistic view about inclusion, espoused by will.i.am and others. One concerns how AI might hit “head, hand, heart” jobs — to cite British author David Goodhart — or those deploying cognitive, manual and caring skills.
然而，有兩個關鍵因素可以解釋威爾•艾姆和其他人對包容性持更樂觀態度的替代觀點。其中一個關鍵因素是人工智慧可能如何影響「頭腦、手、心」工作，正如英國作家戴維•古德哈特(David Goodhart)所說，或者那些需要認知、體力和關懷技能的工作。
In the 20th century, digitisation primarily hit jobs done by “hand”. And the displacement of factory workers in the west by robots did fuel income polarisation, even if other jobs were created elsewhere, as economists such as David Autor have noted.
在20世紀，數位化主要衝擊的是「手」的工作。正如戴維•奧托(David Autor)等經濟學家所指出的那樣，機器人取代了西方工廠工人的工作，這確實加劇了收入兩極分化，即使其他地方也創造了其他工作崗位。
But the difference between AI today, and automation in the 20th century is that the new tech is hitting “head” jobs (and, to a lesser extent, “heart” roles), as Josephine Teo, Singapore’s digital minister, told a WEF meeting. That hurts the elite professions, arguably for the first time. Hence the squeals of alarm from pundits — which might leave some manual workers feeling some justified schadenfreude, observes Teo (herself a former union leader).
但是，人工智慧與20世紀的自動化之間的區別在於，新技術正在影響「頭腦」工作（以及在較小程度上影響「心」角色），正如新加坡數字部長楊莉明(Josephine Teo)在世界經濟論壇的一次會議上所說。這對於精英職業來說是第一次受到衝擊。因此專家們發出了警報聲，而曾是一名工會領導人的楊莉明則表示，這可能會讓一些體力勞動者感到一些幸災樂禍(schadenfreude)。（"Schadenfreude" 是一個德語辭彙，直譯爲「傷害喜悅」，用於形容一個人因爲看到別人遭受不幸或失敗而感到的快樂或滿足感。這個詞在英語中被廣泛使用，用來描述這種在其他文化或語言中可能難以用一個詞精確表達的情感。Schadenfreude 並不指正面的情感，而是一種複雜的、通常被認爲是負面的情感體驗，因爲它涉及到對他人不幸的幸災樂禍。）
The second factor is that history also shows that technological revolutions “undermine incumbents”, says Andrew McAfee, an economist at MIT business school. This is the case be they companies, countries or economic cohorts.
第二個因素是歷史也表明，技術革命會「削弱現有的權威」，麻省理工學院商學院的經濟學家安德魯•邁克菲(Andrew McAfee)指出。這適用於公司、國家或經濟羣體。
That might seem hard to imagine today, since the elite who have developed and deployed AI have become fabulously wealthy. But if the acronym is presented in terms of “augmented” — rather than “artificial” — intelligence, it is possible to see why hierarchies might yet be challenged by a tool that enables workers to execute complex cognitive tasks far more easily than before.
這在今天可能很難想像，因爲那些開發和應用人工智慧的精英已經變得非常富有。但是，如果將AI的首字母縮寫中的「A」解釋爲「增強」(augmented)而不是「人工」(artificial)，就可以看出爲什麼層級制度可能會被一種工具所挑戰，這種工具使工人比以前更容易執行復雜的認知任務。
Consider the jobs of writing legal contracts, advanced computer code or medical diagnoses. Today, they are dominated by an educated elite. But if less-educated workers can deploy AI to perform these roles in the future, that will break some of the barriers to entry for “head” work. That is scary for the elite. Not so much for others.
想想寫法律合同、編寫高級電腦代碼或醫療診斷之類的工作。今天，他們被受過良好教育的精英所控制。但如果受教育程度較低的工人能夠在未來利用人工智慧來完成這些角色，這將打破「腦力」工作的一些准入障礙。這對精英來說是可怕的。對其他人來說，就沒那麼可怕了。
Hence why some AI leaders, such as James Manyika of Alphabet, argue that this is already sparking a more positive attitude towards AI in the developing world than the developed one. And why social activists, including will.I.Am, hope that putting AI tools in the hands of more disadvantaged children will be empowering.
因此，一些人工智慧領軍人物，如Alphabet的詹姆斯•馬尼卡(James Manyika)，認爲這已經在發展中國家引發了比發達國家更積極的態度。而社會活動家，包括威爾•艾姆，希望將人工智慧工具交到更多弱勢兒童手中，以實現賦權。
The cynic in me would retort that there are endless obstacles that could torpedo this. Wealthy elites are often extremely good at finding ways to protect their privilege — and at building professional “moats”. And one grubby aspect of AI is that its development to date has hitherto been dominated by elites in the west.
持懷疑態度的人可能會反駁說，有無數的障礙可以破壞這一點。富有的精英們往往非常善於找到保護自己特權的方法，也非常善於建造職業「護城河」。人工智慧的一個骯髒方面是，迄今爲止，它的發展一直由西方精英主導。
This means there is an urgent need to get wider participation in the creation of the technology, says Alex Tsado of Alliance4ai, a lobby group promoting access in African countries. Without this, the tech will reinforce biases and hierarchies. Proactive, smart and holistic government policies must be developed to bolster education and IT access — and to ensure open-source AI development.
非洲國家推動開放獲取的遊說團體Alliance4ai的亞歷克斯•查多(Alex Tsado)表示，這意味著迫切需要更廣泛的參與來成立這項技術。如果沒有這樣做，技術將強化偏見和等級制度。必須制定積極、智慧和全面的政府政策來支援教育和信息技術的獲取，並確保開源人工智慧的發展。
But here is the key point: if a rapper who grew up in a poor district in Los Angeles can dare to dream of a levelling upside for AI, other pundits should try do so as well — even amid the dystopian chatter. I just wish that the Black Eyed Peas would create a song that urges governments to deliver the policies to support this; it might finally grab attention from voters.
但問題的關鍵在於：如果一個在洛杉磯貧困地區長大的說唱歌手都敢於夢想人工智慧的公平上升空間，其他學者也應該嘗試這樣做——即使在反烏托邦的議論中。我殷切希望黑眼豆豆樂隊能創作一首歌曲，敦促各國政府出臺相關政策來支援人工智慧的發展，這或許能最終吸引選民的關注。