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Most Federal Reserve officials wanted to keep borrowing costs high “for some time”, according to minutes of their meeting in December, adding to doubts that the US central bank is poised to begin cutting interest rates as early as March.
美聯準去年12月的會議紀要顯示，多數美聯準官員希望「在一段時間內」將借貸成本維持在高位，這加劇了人們對美聯準最早將於3月開始降息的懷疑。
While officials expressed optimism that the Fed was quelling inflation, they were also careful not to commit to any immediate loosening of monetary policy, according to a record of the meeting published on Wednesday.
週三公佈的會議記錄顯示，雖然官員們對美聯準正在抑制通膨表示樂觀，但他們也謹慎地避免承諾立即放鬆貨幣政策。
Rate-setters “reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably toward the Committee’s objective”, the minutes showed.
會議記錄顯示，利率制定者們「重申，在通膨明顯向委員會目標持續下降之前，政策在一段時間內保持限制性立場是合適的」。
Rate-setters surprised markets in December by indicating they expected the bank to make three quarter-point cuts over the course of 2024. While officials still viewed rates as “as likely at or near [their] peak”, they also saw “an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty” in this year’s economic outlook.
去年12月，利率制定者們出乎市場意料地表示，他們預計央行將在2024年三次降息25個基點。儘管官員們仍認爲利率「很可能達到或接近峯值」，但他們也認爲，今年經濟前景的「不確定性程度異常上升」。
The account highlights the challenges facing the Fed as it tries to call time on a campaign of aggressive rate rises, without renouncing its commitment to keeping price pressures under control and risking damage to its inflation-fighting credentials.
該描述突顯了美聯準所面臨的挑戰，美聯準試圖在不放棄控制物價壓力的承諾、不冒著損害其抗通膨信譽的風險的情況下，結束一場激進的加息運動，
“They’re not willing to say ‘we’ve won’,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, referring to the Fed’s battle against inflation. The central bank’s officials appeared from the minutes to be a “rather gloomy, worried bunch”, he added.
摩根大通資產管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)首席全球策略師大衛•凱利(David Kelly)在談到美聯準與通膨的鬥爭時說：「他們不願意說『我們贏了』。」他補充說，從會議紀要來看，央行官員似乎是」相當陰鬱、憂心忡忡的一羣人"。
Despite their caution on rates, policymakers sounded more confident on inflation, saying the risks to hitting the Fed’s 2 per cent goal were “moving toward greater balance”. An earlier reference from previous minutes to inflation remaining “unacceptably high” was removed.
儘管政策制定者對利率持謹慎態度，但他們對通膨似乎更有信心。他們表示，達到美聯準2%目標的風險「正朝著更加平衡的方向發展」。先前會議紀要中提到的通膨仍「高得令人無法接受」的說法被刪除。
Investors appeared unsurprised by the account in the Federal Open Market Committee minutes. Yields on the US government’s benchmark 10-year bond were 0.04 percentage points lower at 3.91 per cent on Wednesday afternoon in New York, while the policy-sensitive two-year yield was flat at 4.32 per cent. Bond yields rise as their prices fall.
投資者似乎對聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議紀要中的描述並不感到意外。紐約市場週三下午，美國基準10年期國債收益率下跌0.04個百分點，至3.91%，而對政策敏感的兩年期國債收益率持平，爲4.32%。債券價格下跌，收益率就會上升。
In equity markets, the S&P 500 maintained an earlier decline to trade 0.6 per cent lower on the day. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index was down 1 per cent.
在股市，標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)維持了早些時候的跌勢，當日下跌0.6%。以科技股爲主的那斯達克綜合指數下跌1%。
Futures markets continued to price in roughly six interest rate cuts for 2024 as a whole, despite the Fed’s official “dot plot” projections indicating just three cuts.
儘管美聯準的官方「點陣圖」預測顯示只有三次降息，但期貨市場繼續預計2024年全年將降息約六次。
The publication of the minutes comes as Fed watchers continue to debate when the bank will begin lowering borrowing costs in 2024 and how deeply it will cut rates through the year.
會議紀要公佈之際，美聯準觀察人士仍在爭論美聯準將於2024年何時開始降低借貸成本，以及全年降息幅度有多大。
“So long as the economy remains strong, or solid, they will, I think, remain on the sidelines,” said Kelly. “A first cut in June is my reading of their summary of economic projections.”
凱利說：「只要經濟保持強勁或穩健，我認爲他們就會保持觀望。我對他們經濟預測摘要的解讀是，6月份將首次降息。」
The dovish tone of the December meeting and chair Jay Powell’s comments immediately after it led many investors to bet that cuts could start as soon as March.
去年12月會議的溫和基調，以及會後美聯準主席傑伊•鮑爾(Jay Powell)的言論，讓許多投資者押注美聯準最早可能在3月開始降息。
FOMC officials have warned since the meeting that a move to slash rates was far from a done deal, however.
然而，公開市場委員會官員自會議以來一直警告稱，降息遠非板上釘釘的事。
On Wednesday, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin, a voting member of the FOMC this year, warned that the quest to beat back inflation was not complete, saying that some companies did not yet “want to back down from raising prices until their customers or competitors force their hands”.
週三，里士滿聯邦儲備銀行(Richmond Fed)行長托馬斯•巴金(Thomas Barkin)警告稱，遏制通膨的努力尚未完成，他表示，一些企業還沒有「想要放棄提價，除非客戶或競爭對手迫使它們這樣做」。巴金今年是聯邦公開市場委員會有投票權的成員。
“If that’s the case, I fear more will have to happen on the demand side, whether organically or through Fed action, to convince price-setters that the inflation era is over,” he said, adding that a soft landing was “increasingly conceivable” but “in no way inevitable”.
他表示：「如果是這樣的話，我擔心需求方面必須採取更多措施，無論是自發的還是透過美聯準的行動，才能讓價格制定者相信通膨時代已經結束。」他補充稱，軟著陸「越來越有可能」，但「絕非一定的」。
Barkin’s comments pushed yields on 10-year Treasuries above 4 per cent for the first time since the December meeting, although the move had largely reversed by midday in New York.
巴金的言論推動10年期美國國債收益率自去年12月會議以來首次突破4%，儘管截至紐約午盤，這一走勢已基本逆轉。
Bond prices have started 2024 on the back foot following a strong year-end rally that pushed the benchmark 10-year yield as low as 3.78 per cent last week, spurred by the Fed’s unexpectedly dovish tone at the meeting.
受美聯準在會議上出人意料的鴿派基調刺激，債券價格在年末強勁反彈，上週將基準10年期國債收益率推低至3.78%，2024年伊始，債券價格開始回落。
On Wednesday, federal data showing that job openings in November fell to the lowest level in more than two years offered some evidence of cooling in the labour market, bolstering expectations of rate cuts.
週三公佈的聯邦數據顯示，11月職位空缺降至兩年多來最低水準，這在一定程度上證明了勞動力市場正在降溫，增強了降息預期。
December’s decision from the central bank left the federal funds rate at 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent — a 22-year high.
去年12月，美聯準決定將聯邦基金利率維持在5.25%至5.5%的水準，爲22年來的最高水準。
The return of double-digit inflation to the US for the first time in decades dented the Fed’s reputation, prompting policymakers to resort to a series of four successive 75 basis point rises in interest rates. In total, the Fed raised rates by 525 basis points over 2022 and 2023.
美國幾十年來首次出現兩位數的通膨，損害了美聯準的聲譽，促使政策制定者採取了連續4次加息75個基點的措施。美聯準在2022年和2023年總共加息了525個基點。
However, price pressures declined sharply during the second half of last year and the Fed has not raised rates since July.
然而，價格壓力在去年下半年大幅下降，美聯準自去年7月以來沒有加息。
The resilience of the US economy last year, as inflation fell despite strong growth and low unemployment, has raised hopes of a soft landing.
去年，儘管經濟成長強勁、失業率較低，但通膨有所下降，美國經濟表現出了韌性，這提高了人們對經濟軟著陸的希望。
The FOMC’s December projections showed most officials expected rates would end 2024 between 4.5 per cent and 4.75 per cent. Most officials expect rates to fall farther in 2025, ending the year between 3.5 per cent and 3.75 per cent.
公開市場委員會去年12月的預測顯示，多數官員預計，2024年底利率將在4.5%至4.75%之間。多數官員預計，2025年利率將進一步下降，年底至3.5%至3.75%之間。
Those dot-plot projections are built on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index falling to 2.4 per cent this year and 2.2 per cent in 2025, before hitting the central bank’s 2 per cent goal in 2026. Unemployment is expected to tick up only slightly, from 3.8 per cent now to 4.1 per cent.
這些點圖預測是基於核心個人消費支出指數(CPI)今年降至2.4%，2025年降至2.2%，然後在2026年達到央行2%的目標。預計失業率只會小幅上升，從目前的3.8%升至4.1%。
Additional reporting by Jennifer Hughes in New York
詹妮弗•休斯(Jennifer Hughes)紐約補充報導