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Years ago, diversifying a large portfolio meant investing in 65 different companies in the country that you lived and worked in, rather than only 30. Fortunately for wealthy families today, spreading investment risk across more than one geography has become a lot easier.
多年前，將大型投資組合多樣化意味著在你生活和工作的國家投資65家不同的公司，而不是隻有30家。幸運的是，對於今天的富裕家庭來說，將投資風險分散到多個地區已經變得容易得多。
But wealth managers, private banks and family offices say that even more needs to be done — with other assets — to ensure that global families are not still too exposed to local risks.
但財富管理公司、私人銀行和家族理財室表示，還需要在其它資產方面採取更多措施，以確保全球家族不會仍然過於暴露於本地風險之下。
Diversification, in simple terms, means spreading assets across sectors and countries to reduce the overall impact of adverse price movements in any one of them. Without it, families are, in effect, betting that wherever they live or work will always produce the best investment returns in the world.
簡單來說，多元化意味著將資產分散到各個行業和國家，以減少其中任何一個行業或者國家的不利價格變動帶來的總體影響。沒有它，家庭實際上是在打賭，無論他們生活或工作在哪裏，都會產生世界上最好的投資回報。
Even if that is the case for a short period, it will be a risky strategy for long-term investing. “For the vast majority of people, diversification is a good thing,” explains Ben Seager-Scott, head of multi-asset funds at Evelyn Partners.
即使短期內是這樣，對於長期投資來說，這也是一種有風險的策略。「對絕大多數人來說，分散投資是件好事，」Evelyn Partners多資產基金主管本•西格爾-斯科特解釋道。
However, he and others warn that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to diversification. As James Holder, head of Europe at Citi Private Bank, points out: “Everybody is different, this is not a homogenous marketplace.”
然而，他和其他人警告說，沒有放之四海而皆準的多樣化方法。正如花旗私人銀行(Citi Private Bank)歐洲主管詹姆斯•霍爾德(James Holder)所指出的：「每個人都不一樣，這不是一個同質化的市場。」
A wealth manager’s diversification strategy must, therefore, take in a full picture of a family’s life and priorities. This will include assets, liabilities, sources of earnings and revenue, places of spending, and tax jurisdictions.
因此，財富管理公司的多元化戰略必須全面考慮一個家庭的生活和優先事項。這將包括資產、負債、收益和收入來源、支出地點和稅收管轄區。
A similar, predictive exercise must be carried out for children or dependants: where they will live, what currency their inheritance will be in, and what their local tax system will be. It must factor in whether there are any plans to live somewhere else in the future — so that the adviser, for example, can start building up assets in that place earlier, to lessen the impact of currency moves.
必須對子女或家屬進行類似的預測：他們將住在哪裏，他們繼承到的遺產將以何種貨幣計價，以及他們當地的稅收制度將是什麼。此外，還必須考慮到未來是否有在其他地方居住的計劃，例如，這樣理財顧問就可以更早地開始在那個地方積累資產，以減輕匯率波動的影響。
For clients with a business based in one, or multiple, jurisdictions, it is especially important to look at where the company’s revenue is coming from, says Edward Park, chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald.
Brooks Macdonald首席投資長帕克(Edward Park)說，對於業務位於一個或多個司法管轄區的客戶來說，瞭解公司收入的來源尤爲重要。
Once this geographical information has been gathered, private banks, wealth managers and family offices will typically start to build a portfolio of equities and bonds drawn from a global weighted index, in which countries are divvied up based on their relative total market capitalisation.
一旦收集到這些地理資訊，私人銀行、財富管理公司和家族理財室通常就會開始根據全球加權指數構建股票和債券投資組合，在該指數中，各國根據其相對總市值進行劃分。
Some business owners may still wish to use their own experience to invest in their local market, says Holder. “There may be circumstances where, because of the success of that business, because of the family’s experience of operating within a geographic environment, their network and connections, there may be very good reasons that they have such a competitive advantage,” he acknowledges.
霍爾德表示，一些企業主可能仍希望利用自己的經驗投資當地市場。他承認：「在某些情況下，由於該企業的成功，由於該家族在某個地理環境中運營的經驗、他們的人脈和關係，他們可能有很好的理由擁有這樣的競爭優勢。」
But, for others — especially owners whose businesses are in developing nations — the investment portfolio should be diversified almost entirely away from their home country.
但是，對於其他人——尤其是那些業務在發展中國家的所有者——投資組合應該分散，幾乎完全遠離本國。
A similar approach must be taken with business sectors, advisers suggest. “When a family has a substantial portion of their wealth in a cyclical industry — be that something like mining — we want to be quite careful that we focus their investments in a broad range of other sectors which are not aligned with that,” explains John Veale, deputy head of investments at multi-family office Stonehage Fleming.
顧問們建議，商業部門也必須採取類似的做法。多家族理財室Stonehage Fleming的投資副主管約翰•維勒(John Veale)解釋說：「當一個家族的很大一部分財富處於一個週期性行業時——比如採礦業——我們要非常小心，把他們的投資重點放在與這個週期性行業不一致的廣泛的其他行業。」
However, some sectors should be treated differently, he adds. For example, if a client runs a tech firm, that cannot rule out all other tech investments. “You [should] be thoughtful about what is done there as it would have been a very bad idea in the past few years to say, ‘I have got a tech company, therefore I am not investing in [tech companies]’,” Veale points out.
不過，他補充稱，某些行業應區別對待。例如，如果客戶經營一家科技公司，那就不能排除所有其他科技投資。維勒指出：「你(應該)仔細考慮一下這些公司都做了些什麼，因爲在過去幾年裏，說『我有一家科技公司，因此我不投資(科技公司)』是一個非常糟糕的主意。」
Currency is a further diversification factor, but rarely straightforward. Most wealth managers will not hedge any equity holdings, believing that equities move inversely to the currency in which they are priced. But, for fixed income securities, Park says, there are a number of academic studies showing currency fluctuations have more impact on performance than duration and yield.
貨幣是另一個分散投資的因素，但很少是直截了當的。多數財富管理公司不會對沖任何股票頭寸，因爲他們相信，股票的走勢與計價貨幣的走勢相反。但是，帕克表示，對於固定收益證券，有許多學術研究表明，貨幣波動對業績的影響大於期限和收益率。
For wealth managers, then, the overall objective must be to “prevent currency from being the dominant element [in a portfolio],” says Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.
Lombard Odier首席經濟學家薩米•查爾(Samy Chaar)表示，因此，對於財富管理公司來說，總體目標必須是「防止貨幣成爲(投資組合中的)主導因素」。
In practice, however, diversification will not always deliver the highest returns, as it is not intended to do that.
然而，在實踐中，分散投資並不總能帶來最高回報，因爲它的初衷並非如此。
For example, diversified US-based or Swiss-based investors will have missed out on all of the huge outperformance of their home markets compared with international peers.
例如，以美國或瑞士爲基地的多元化投資者將錯過他們本國市場與國際同行相比的所有巨大超額收益。
This can lead to clients wondering if they should focus more on their home markets. But Chaar warns against it, saying that it can lead some to chase returns and mistime the market. “If you do so, it would be like selling at the trough,” rather than the peak, he suggests.
這可能會讓客戶懷疑，他們是否應該把更多精力放在本國市場上。但查爾警告說，這可能會導致一些人追逐回報，錯失市場時機。他建議說：「如果你這樣做，就等於在低谷而不是高峯時賣出。」
Once assets are invested, a wealth manager will continually review the portfolio, and its degree of diversification. “It is a very live process that never really ends,” says Holder.
一旦投資了資產，理財經理將不斷審查投資組合及其多樣化程度。「這是一個非常活躍的過程，永遠不會真正結束，」霍爾德說。
Even if nothing has changed from a client’s perspective, there may be a fundamental change to make in the portfolio — for example, in the past year, there has been a move towards fixed income products, which are producing real, above-inflation, returns for the first time in a decade. Also, the past few years have also been abnormal in terms of market stressors, so investors might be forgiven for wondering if it is almost too difficult to diversify them away.
即使從客戶的角度來看沒有任何變化，投資組合也可能發生根本性的變化——例如，過去一年，投資者轉向了固定收益產品，這些產品10年來首次產生了高於通膨水準的實際回報。此外，就市場壓力因素而言，過去幾年也不正常，因此投資者可能會懷疑，分散投資是否太難了。
“[Markets have been] hit by a series of very rare external shocks, the pandemic and war in Ukraine . . . it has been pretty intense,” admits Chaar. “You do not [normally] have to deal with these every five years.”
「（市場）受到了一系列非常罕見的外部衝擊、疫情和烏克蘭戰爭（的影響）……這是相當激烈的，」查爾承認，「你(通常)不必每五年處理一次這些問題。」
