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Opec+ looks more like a minus for Saudi Arabia. The oil cartel is doing nothing to help the Gulf state lift oil prices. Blame the export surge from newcomer Russia.
歐佩克+對沙烏地阿拉伯來說更像是一個負數。這個石油卡特爾沒有做任何事情來幫助這個海灣國家提升油價。這要歸咎於新加入的俄羅斯的出口激增。
Sunday’s meeting of the expanded cartel went badly. Opec+ members such as Nigeria and Angola balked at a proposal to cut output quotas for the rest of 2023. That forced Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to propose a Saudi-only 1mn-barrel daily cut for July alone.
週日，擴大後的歐佩克會議進展不順利。奈及利亞和安哥拉等歐佩克+成員國拒絕了在2023年剩餘時間內削減產量配額的提議。這迫使沙烏地阿拉伯能源部長阿卜杜勒阿齊茲親王提出，僅7月份，沙烏地就將每日減產100萬桶。
He threatened to extend the cut, but bulls had hoped for tougher action. Brent crude prices accordingly rose just 1.5 per cent on Monday. They have slipped 9 per cent to $77 per barrel this year.
他威脅要延長減產，但多頭先前希望能採取更強硬的行動。布倫特原油價格在週一相應地僅上漲了1.5%。今年以來，它們已經下滑了9%，至每桶77美元。
Prince Abdulaziz bristles at oil traders’ unwillingness to see the same positive fundamentals he does. Demand should outpace supply for the rest of this year, he says. Most oil strategists agree with him, but they do not run trading desks. The post-lockdown pick-up in Chinese oil demand has been weaker than anticipated.
阿卜杜勒阿齊茲親王對石油交易商不願看到他所看到的積極的基本面感到憤怒。他說在今年餘下的時間裏，需求應該會超過供應。大多數石油策略師同意他的觀點，但他們並不負責交易。封鎖後中國石油需求的回升弱於預期。
Meanwhile, cash-strapped Russia is selling as much oil as it can. Since G7 and EU sanctions began Russia’s seaborne crude exports have jumped a fifth, according to Rystad Energy. No wonder some Opec+ members will not play ball with Saudi Arabia.
與此同時，資金緊張的俄羅斯正在儘可能多地出售石油。根據Rystad Energy的數據，自從七國集團和歐盟開始制裁以來，俄羅斯的海運原油出口量已經躍升了五分之一。難怪一些歐佩克+成員國不會與沙烏地阿拉伯合作。
Russian crude trades $20 below international benchmark prices. Friendly refiners in countries such as India and China happily slurp it up. About 60 per cent of Russian crude lands in both places, says consultancy Bruegel.
俄羅斯的原油交易價格比國際基準價格低20美元。印度和中國等國家友好的煉油廠高興地吞下了它。諮詢公司Bruegel說，大約60%的俄羅斯原油在這兩個地方落地。
Equity investors are avoiding oil stocks. Despite hefty payouts, the shares of majors such as ExxonMobil and BP have gone nowhere for the past year. The MSCI All-country energy index has trailed the broader All-country benchmark since October, well after crude’s value peaked last spring.
股票投資者正在避開石油類股。儘管派息豐富，但埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和英國石油(BP)等石油巨擘的股價在過去一年裏卻毫無起色。自去年10月以來，MSCI全球能源指數一直落後於大盤基準指數，而原油價格早在去年春季見頂。
Russia needs export income to pay for its war. All things being equal, oil prices will remain rangebound. To be taken seriously, Prince Abdulaziz will have to back up his threat with action at the next Opec+ meeting in November.
俄羅斯需要出口收入來支付戰爭費用。在所有條件不變的情況下，油價將保持區間波動。爲了得到認真對待，阿卜杜勒阿齊茲親王將不得不在11月舉行的下一次歐佩克+會議上用行動來支援他的威脅。
