China’s government bond market has opened 2025 with a clear warning for policymakers: without more determined stimulus, investors expect deflationary pressures to become even more entrenched in the world’s second-largest economy.
中國政府債券市場在2025年開市之際，向政策制定者發出了一個明確警告：如果沒有更果決的刺激措施，投資者預計通縮壓力將在這個全球第二大經濟體變得更加根深蒂固。
China’s 10-year bond yield, a benchmark for economic growth and inflation expectations, fell to a record low of less than 1.6 per cent during trading last week and has since hovered close to that level.
中國10年期國債收益率——衡量經濟成長和通膨預期的基準——在上週的交易中跌至不到1.6%的歷史低點，此後一直在這一水準附近徘徊。
Crucially, the whole yield curve has shifted downwards rather than steepening, suggesting investors are alarmed about the long-term outlook and not just anticipating short-term cuts to interest rates.
至關重要的是，整個收益率曲線不是變陡，而是向下移動，這表明投資者對長期前景感到擔憂，而不僅僅是預期短期降息。