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The killing of Yahya Sinwar should mark a turning point in Israel’s more than year-long campaign to debilitate Hamas and secure the release of its hostages held in Gaza. Ever since the militant group’s horrific October 7 attack, killing the ruthless architect of the assault and decapitating Hamas’s leadership has been a prime Israeli objective. Israel has now taken out most of Hamas’s top commanders in Gaza, its political leader Ismail Haniyeh and severely degraded the group.
葉海亞•辛瓦爾(Yahya Sinwar)被殺死，應該標誌着以色列長達一年多的削弱哈馬斯(Hamas)並確保釋放其在加沙的人質的行動的一個轉折點。自該激進組織10月7日發動恐怖襲擊以來，擊斃這次襲擊的殘忍策劃者並斬首哈馬斯領導層一直是以色列的首要目標。現在，以色列已經幹掉了哈馬斯在加沙的大部分高級指揮官及其政治領導人伊斯梅爾•哈尼亞(Ismail Haniyeh)，並嚴重削弱了該組織的實力。
It was a moment for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take his military wins, reach a deal to end the Gaza war and save the hostages. Instead, Israel’s offensive grinds on, deepening the catastrophe for Palestinians trapped in the enclave and prolonging the agony for the families of hostages.
這是以色列總理本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu)取得軍事勝利、達成結束加沙戰爭並解救人質協議的時刻。相反，以色列的攻勢仍在繼續，加深了被困在加沙地帶的巴勒斯坦人的災難，延長了人質家屬的痛苦。
The scenes in northern Gaza over the past week have been horrific. Scores have been killed in the days since Sinwar’s death — the toll from Israel’s onslaught is nearing 43,000 people, according to Palestinian officials. Thousands have been forced from their homes. Even the US took the unprecedented step of warning Israel it would suspend arms sales if it did not do more to ease the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe. Israel has also intensified its assault on Hizbollah, wreaking havoc in Lebanon as its bombs flatten buildings — including non-military targets — while its forces push on with an invasion in the south.
過去一週，加沙北部的景象令人毛骨悚然。在辛瓦爾死後的幾天裏，已有數十人喪生--據巴勒斯坦官員稱，以色列襲擊造成的死亡人數已接近43 000人。成千上萬人被迫離開家園。就連美國也史無前例地警告以色列，如果它不採取更多措施來緩解正在發生的人道主義災難，它將暫停向以色列出售武器。以色列還加強了對黎巴嫩真主黨(Hizbollah)的攻擊，在黎巴嫩造成了嚴重破壞，其炸彈夷平了建築物，包括非軍事目標，同時以色列軍隊繼續入侵南部地區。
Netanyahu is also preparing his retaliation for Iran’s missile attack on Israel three weeks ago. The region will then wait anxiously for the next round of escalation. Hizbollah, meanwhile, weakened by the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, continues to fire missiles into the Jewish state.
內塔尼亞胡也在準備對伊朗三週前對以色列的飛彈襲擊進行報復。該地區將焦急地等待下一輪局勢升級。與此同時，黎巴嫩真主黨因其領導人哈桑•納斯魯拉(Hassan Nasrallah)被殺而削弱，但仍在繼續向以色列發射飛彈。
Israel, it seems, is locked in endless wars on multiple fronts. The suspicion is that Netanyahu has bet that with the Biden administration focused on the US election, he has a window to strike hard against Israel’s foes and ignore international pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza or with Hizbollah. He is likely to be calculating that a victory for Donald Trump, who during his first term gifted Netanyahu a number of pro-Israeli policies, would give him even greater licence to strike against Israel’s foes and the Palestinians.
以色列似乎陷入了多條戰線上的無休止戰爭。有人懷疑，內塔尼亞胡打賭，在拜登政府專注於美國選舉時，他有機會對以色列的敵人進行強硬打擊，並無視國際社會要求在加沙或黎巴嫩真主黨方面停火的壓力。他可能在計算，如果唐納•川普(Donald Trump)獲勝，川普在第一任期內給予內塔尼亞胡的一些親以色列政策，將使他更有權力打擊以色列的敵人和巴勒斯坦人。
Yet the Biden administration seems to be dancing to Netanyahu’s tune: despite calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon one minute, it supports Israel’s goal of degrading Hizbollah the next. None of this serves the stability of the Middle East — or Israel’s long-term security interests. Hamas and Hizbollah can be decapitated and devastated but will not disappear. Many Hamas fighters are believed to be orphans of previous conflicts as cycles of violence breed new generations of militants. When one leader is killed, another takes over. When a group’s military capacity is debilitated, it reverts to guerrilla tactics.
然而，拜登政府似乎在跟隨內塔尼亞胡的節奏：儘管前一分鐘呼籲黎巴嫩停火，但下一分鐘又支援以色列削弱黎巴嫩真主黨的目標。這一切都不利於中東地區的穩定，也不利於以色列的長期安全利益。哈馬斯和黎巴嫩真主黨可以被斬首和摧毀，但不會消失。許多哈馬斯戰士被認爲是之前衝突的孤兒，因爲暴力循環滋生了新一代激進分子。當一個領導人被殺時，另一個接替他的位置。當一個組織的軍事能力受損時，它會迴歸游擊戰術。
Military history — including Israel’s past experiences in Lebanon — is littered with the follies of mission creep; of technically superior occupying armies becoming bogged down by insurgencies, often with radical forces filling the void when they depart.
軍事歷史——包括以色列在黎巴嫩的過去經歷——充斥著任務蔓延的愚蠢行爲；技術上優越的佔領軍被叛亂所困擾，往往在他們撤離時，激進勢力會填補空白。
US President Joe Biden must end the year-long cycle of death and destruction. The threat of a full-blown Middle East war grows by the day. It is in the west’s — and the region’s — interest to pressure Netanyahu to take the diplomatic off-ramps that are available. An all-out regional conflict risks drawing American forces into conflict with Iran and its proxies. It would put the Gulf’s oil infrastructure at risk, threaten more disruption to shipping through vital trade routes and fuel more extremism.
美國總統喬•拜登(Joe Biden)必須結束長達一年的死亡和破壞循環。中東全面戰爭的威脅與日俱增。向內塔尼亞胡施壓，迫使其利用現有的外交途徑，符合西方和該地區的利益。全面的地區衝突有可能將美軍捲入與伊朗及其代理人的衝突。這將使海灣的石油基礎設施面臨風險，威脅到透過重要貿易路線的航運，並助長更多的極端主義。
Biden has the tools to rein in Netanyahu. He must halt the offensive arms sales to Israel that enable its relentless bombing of Gaza and Lebanon. He can do so without breaking Washington’s commitment to Israel’s defence, including providing air-defence systems. But Biden’s message should be clear: the bombing must stop and the day after must begin. If not, the devastation and suffering in the Middle East will come back to haunt the west.
拜登有手段來遏制內塔尼亞胡。他必須停止向以色列出售進攻性武器，這些武器使以色列能夠無情地轟炸加沙和黎巴嫩。他可以在不違背華盛頓對以色列防禦承諾的情況下做到這一點，包括提供防空系統。但拜登的資訊應該是明確的：轟炸必須停止，新的篇章必須開始。否則，中東的破壞和苦難將重新困擾西方。