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By assassinating Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel has dealt a grievous blow to one of its most powerful foes. Over three decades, Nasrallah transformed the group, with Iranian backing, into the Middle East’s most heavily armed non-state actor and the dominant political force in Lebanon. His killing has severely wounded the movement, while underlining Israel’s military superiority over Iran’s so-called axis of resistance.
透過暗殺黎巴嫩真主黨(Hizbollah)領導人哈桑•納斯魯拉(Hassan Nasrallah)，以色列對其最強大的敵人之一造成了沉重打擊。三十多年來，納斯魯拉在伊朗的支援下，將該組織轉變爲中東地區武裝最爲強大的非國家行爲體，併成爲黎巴嫩的主要政治力量。他的被殺對該運動造成了嚴重傷害，同時突顯了以色列在所謂的抵抗軸心上對伊朗的軍事優勢。
Many other senior Hizbollah figures have been killed in Israeli air strikes. But the relentless bombardment has wrought devastation on Lebanon, spreading fear and panic across the nation. More than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks, and up to 1mn forced from their homes. As the bombs rain down, they fear what comes next. Many in Lebanon opposed Nasrallah and blamed Hizbollah for the crisis-ridden country’s ills. But Hizbollah also represents a large swath of Shia society in a fragile nation where Muslim and Christian sects coexist uneasily. Under Nasrallah, the movement was cohesive and disciplined. In his absence, many worry it might fragment or become more extreme.
許多其他高級黎巴嫩真主黨人物在以色列空襲中被殺。但持續的轟炸在黎巴嫩造成了毀滅性的破壞，使全國陷入恐懼和恐慌。在過去兩週內，有超過1000人被殺，多達100萬人被迫離開家園。隨著炸彈的不斷落下，人們擔心接下來會發生什麼。黎巴嫩的許多人反對納斯魯拉，並將黎巴嫩真主黨歸咎於這個危機四伏的國家的問題。但黎巴嫩真主黨也代表了在這個脆弱的國家中不安穩共存的穆斯林和基督教教派中的大片什葉派社會。在納斯魯拉的領導下，該運動是團結和有紀律的。在他缺席的情況下，許多人擔心它可能會分裂或變得更加極端。
Israelis, too, should be wary. They celebrated the death of their foe, but having a failed state on their northern border, or a more extremist enemy bent on revenge, will not serve their security interests. Hizbollah has been battered, but it will not disappear. History has shown that when one militant leader is killed, another steps into the breach, often more radical than the former.
以色列人也應該保持警惕。他們慶祝了敵人的死亡，但在他們的北部邊境上有一個失敗的國家，或者一個更極端的敵人尋求復仇，這不符合他們的安全利益。黎巴嫩真主黨已經受到了打擊，但它不會消失。歷史表明，當一個激進的領導人被殺死時，另一個人會接替他的位置，通常比前任更激進。
As Israel prepares to mark the grim anniversary of Hamas’s horrific October 7 attack, which killed 1,200 people and ignited the year of conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should take his wins and chart a new course. He should embrace the diplomatic off-ramps that have been available for months to end the war in Gaza, secure the release of hostages, and halt the conflict with Hizbollah.
在以色列即將紀念哈馬斯10月7日發動的恐怖襲擊之際——該襲擊造成1200人死亡，並引發了一年的衝突——以色列總理本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)應當把握現有的成果，規劃新的方向。他應該利用數月以來已有的外交途徑，結束加沙的戰爭，確保人質獲釋，並停止與真主黨的衝突。
After pummelling Gaza for 12 months, Israel has killed many of Hamas’s senior leaders and severely depleted its military capacity. The offensive has left Gaza in ruins, and more than 41,000 Gazans have been killed, according to Palestinian officials. Hamas will not be able to control Gaza or repeat the atrocities of a year ago. On the northern front, Netanyahu’s stated aim is to ensure the safe return of 60,000 Israelis displaced by Hizbollah’s rocket fire, which began a day after the October 7 attack. But that will not happen as long as the conflict continues.
在對加沙進行了長達12個月的猛烈攻擊之後，以色列已經殺害了哈馬斯的許多高級領導人，並嚴重削弱了其軍事能力。據巴勒斯坦官員稱，攻勢已使加沙成爲一片廢墟，41,000多名加沙人喪生。哈馬斯無法控制加沙，也無法重演一年前的暴行。在北部戰線，內塔尼亞胡宣稱的目標是確保因黎巴嫩真主黨發射火箭彈而流離失所的6萬名以色列人安全返回。但只要衝突仍在繼續，這就不可能實現。
Worryingly, however, the chances of Netanyahu and his far-right government banking their military gains and choosing the path of diplomacy over yet more war appear as remote as ever. Since killing Nasrallah on Friday, Israel has continued to pound Lebanon, launched limited ground incursions across the border in a potential prelude to a land invasion, and struck Houthi rebels in Yemen. Netanyahu has also stepped up his belligerent rhetoric against Iran.
然而令人擔憂的是，內塔尼亞胡及其極右翼政府將軍事收益轉化爲選擇外交而非更多戰爭的可能性似乎依然渺茫。自上週五擊斃納斯魯拉以來，以色列繼續轟炸黎巴嫩，發起有限的地面入侵，這可能是全面陸地入侵的前奏，並打擊了葉門的青年運動叛軍。內塔尼亞胡還加大了對伊朗的好戰言論。
The US and Israel’s other allies preach de-escalation but are unable or unwilling to rein in Netanyahu, whose political interests are served by keeping Israel locked in conflict. The Biden administration looks ever more impotent as the US election nears, despite the risk that Netanyahu could seek to drag Washington into a war with Iran.
美國和以色列的其他盟友呼籲緩和局勢，但無力或不願制止內塔尼亞胡，因爲讓以色列陷入衝突符合他的政治利益。隨著美國大選的臨近，拜登政府顯得越來越無能，儘管內塔尼亞胡可能試圖將華盛頓拖入與伊朗的戰爭。
Israel’s desire to restore its deterrent is one thing. But careering headlong into forever wars, giddy on its tactical success, with no clear strategy or end game, is not a recipe for long-term security and stability, for Israel or the region. The Middle East has witnessed its darkest year in decades. The killing and destruction must stop.
以色列希望恢復其威懾力是一回事。但是，盲目地陷入永久戰爭，對戰術上的成功感到暈頭轉向，卻沒有明確的戰略或終局，這對以色列或該地區的長期安全與穩定來說並不是一個良方。中東經歷了幾十年來最黑暗的一年。殺戮和破壞必須停止。