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The killing of Hassan Nasrallah came just a few days before the first anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel. With its decapitation of Hizbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli government hopes that it has finally seized the initiative in the battle with its regional enemies.
哈桑•納斯魯拉(Hassan Nasrallah)在哈馬斯(Hamas)10月7日襲擊以色列一週年紀念日前幾天被殺死。隨著以色列在黎巴嫩斬首黎巴嫩真主黨(Hizbollah)，以色列政府希望自己終於在與地區敵人的戰鬥中掌握了主動權。
The US is urging Israel not to escalate the conflict further. But Israel is likely to see the current moment as too good an opportunity to miss. Many now want to press home the advantage, in the hope of striking a decisive blow against not just Hizbollah but Iran — and the “axis of resistance” that it leads, which includes Hamas, Hizbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.
美國敦促以色列不要進一步升級衝突。但以色列很可能會認爲當前時機太好，不容錯過。現在許多人希望抓住優勢，希望對不僅僅是黎巴嫩真主黨，而且是伊朗及其領導的「抵抗軸心」，包括哈馬斯、伊拉克和敘利亞的民兵以及葉門的青年運動武裝，進行決定性打擊。
In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s killing, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, talked about an opportunity for “changing the balance of power in the region for years”. If Israel can gravely damage the “axis of resistance”, its achievement would be quietly welcomed in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — which also fear Iran and have fought a war against the Houthis.
在納斯魯拉被殺後，以色列總理本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)談到了一個「改變該地區權力平衡多年」的機會。如果以色列能夠嚴重損害「抵抗軸心」，這一成就將在沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國中悄然受到歡迎，這兩個國家也擔心伊朗並與青年運動武裝交戰。
Unlike the Israeli government, the Saudis continue to insist that establishing a Palestinian state is critical to achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. The Saudi government also has good reason to fear the escalation of regional hostilities that could threaten their ambitious development plans.
與以色列政府不同，沙烏地繼續堅持認爲，建立巴勒斯坦國對實現中東持久和平至關重要。沙烏地政府也有充分的理由擔心地區敵對行動的升級，這可能會威脅到他們雄心勃勃的發展計劃。
For Israel, changing the balance of power also involves reversing the national narrative of defeat and confusion that set in after October 7. The Hamas attack was a humiliation for Israel’s intelligence services. The country’s reputation for always being one step ahead of its enemies was a key part of its deterrence strategy. That reputation was lost in a single day last year, when Israel was comprehensively outwitted by Hamas.
對於以色列來說，改變力量平衡還涉及扭轉10月7日之後形成的失敗和困惑的國家敘事。哈馬斯的襲擊對以色列的情報機構來說是一種羞辱。以色列總是領先敵人一步的聲譽是其威懾戰略的關鍵部分。去年的一天，以色列被哈馬斯全面智勝，這一聲譽在那一天徹底喪失。
The subsequent war in Gaza has failed to restore Israel’s pride or its security. Despite an operation that has caused massive civilian deaths, Israel has been unable to free all its hostages. It is also losing the battle for international public opinion, and has been accused of genocide in hearings at the International Court of Justice.
隨後的加沙戰爭未能恢復以色列的自豪感或安全。儘管行動造成了大量平民死亡，但以色列仍未能解救所有人質。以色列還在國際輿論戰中失利，並在國際法院(International Court of Justice)的聽證會上被指控犯有種族滅絕罪。
The series of attacks on Hizbollah — starting with the exploding pagers, which killed or maimed so many of the organisation’s footsoldiers — has restored the reputation of Israeli intelligence and the morale of the Israeli public. The fact that Hizbollah is detested by many Lebanese citizens and some in the wider Arab world, also complicates the normal condemnation of Israel.
對黎巴嫩真主黨的一系列襲擊——從爆炸的尋呼機開始，這些襲擊導致該組織的許多步兵傷亡——恢復了以色列情報機構的聲譽和以色列公衆計程車氣。黎巴嫩真主黨在許多黎巴嫩公民和阿拉伯世界的一些人中受到憎惡，這也使得對以色列的正常譴責變得更加複雜。
The destruction wrought on Hizbollah potentially puts Iran’s government in the most dangerous international situation it has faced for decades. The presence of a powerful Iran-backed militant force with a huge arsenal of rockets — right on Israel’s northern border — was always regarded as key to Iran’s deterrent power against Israel. The theory was that the Israelis would avoid a direct attack on Iran — partly for fear that Tehran would unleash Hizbollah.
對黎巴嫩真主黨造成的破壞可能會使伊朗政府陷入幾十年來最危險的國際局勢。伊朗支援的強大武裝力量，擁有龐大的火箭庫，就在以色列北部邊境，一直被視爲伊朗對以色列威懾力量的關鍵。理論上，以色列會避免對伊朗發動直接攻擊，部分原因是擔心德黑蘭會釋放黎巴嫩真主黨。
Now, with its proxy and ally reeling, Iran is faced with a dilemma. It has not come directly to the aid of Hamas. If it also stands to one side as Hizbollah is pummelled, its allies will feel betrayed and Israel may be emboldened to take even more radical actions — perhaps including the direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities that it has been threatening for decades.
現在，隨著其代理人和盟友的動搖，伊朗面臨著兩難境地。它並沒有直接援助哈馬斯。如果它在黎巴嫩真主黨遭受重創時也袖手旁觀，它的盟友會感到被背叛，以色列可能會更加大膽，甚至可能包括對伊朗核設施的直接攻擊，這是以色列幾十年來一直在威脅的。
On the other hand, if Iran gets directly involved in a war with Israel, the regime’s survival would be at risk — particularly since the US might well get drawn into the conflict. The Americans have sworn off further wars in the Middle East, at least in theory. But they are also firmly committed to the defence of Israel and have demonstrated that they are capable of bringing about regime change in the Middle East. The bloody, chaotic aftermath of the US-led war in Iraq remains a recent and painful memory in Washington. But the fact that Iran is known to be very close to having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon will increase the temptation for Israel to strike now.
另一方面，如果伊朗直接捲入與以色列的戰爭，政權的生存將面臨風險，特別是因爲美國很可能捲入衝突。美國人至少在理論上發誓不再進行中東地區的戰爭。但他們也堅決致力於保衛以色列，並已經證明他們有能力在中東地區引發政權更迭。美國領導的伊拉克戰爭的血腥混亂後果仍然是華盛頓最近而痛苦的記憶。但衆所周知，伊朗已經非常接近擁有製造核武器的能力，這將增加以色列現在發動打擊的誘惑。
Some excited supporters of Israel are comparing the current moment to the Six Day War of 1967 — a sudden and unexpected Israeli victory that changed the balance of power in the Middle East.
一些激動的以色列支持者將當前時刻與1967年的六日戰爭(Six Day War)相提並論——這場突如其來且意外的以色列勝利改變了中東地區的力量平衡。
But while there are clearly opportunities for Israel in the current situation, there are also massive risks. Hizbollah is reeling but it may still be able to deploy what remains of its arsenal of missiles and hit Israel’s major cities repeatedly. If Israel follows through on its threats of a ground invasion of Lebanon, it could find itself in a quagmire-like conflict that runs for years — at a time when its forces are already at war in Gaza.
然而，在當前形勢下，以色列確實存在機遇，但也面臨巨大風險。黎巴嫩真主黨雖然受到重創，但仍有可能使用其剩餘的飛彈庫，反覆襲擊以色列的主要城市。如果以色列兌現對黎巴嫩進行地面入侵的威脅，可能會陷入一場持續多年的泥潭般的衝突中，而此時其軍隊已經在加沙蔘與戰爭。
Over the long run, the death and destruction in Lebanon caused by Israeli air strikes is likely to create a new generation of Hizbollah soldiers. Some 60 per cent of Hamas fighters are thought to be orphans from previous conflicts.
從長遠來看，以色列空襲在黎巴嫩造成的死亡和破壞可能會培養出新一代的黎巴嫩真主黨士兵。據估計，約60%的哈馬斯戰士是前幾次衝突中的孤兒。
Hizbollah and Hamas are both grievously damaged. But Israel has yet to answer how Gaza will be governed after the war is over. Lebanon’s weak caretaker government may well be incapable of moving into any vacuum left by Hizbollah, in which case Israel could have a failed state on its borders.
黎巴嫩真主黨和哈馬斯都受到了嚴重的損害。但是以色列尚未回答戰爭結束後加沙將如何治理的問題。黎巴嫩軟弱的看守政府可能無法填補黎巴嫩真主黨留下的真空，如果是這樣，以色列可能在其邊境上面臨一個失敗的國家。
Netanyahu may dream of bringing about a new regional order in the Middle East. But regional chaos — with the all the dangers that it brings — seems a more likely outcome.
內塔尼亞胡可能夢想在中東建立新的地區秩序。但地區混亂及其帶來的所有危險似乎更有可能發生。