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The US stock market is on a roll. The S&P 500 index closed 2024 up 23 per cent, marking its second consecutive annual gain above 20 per cent. This year, the average forecast on Wall Street is for around a further 10 per cent rise. Households are bullish too: the share of Americans expecting equity prices to rise is at its highest in decades.
美國股市持續上漲。標普500指數2024年收盤上漲23%，連續第二年漲幅超過20%。今年，華爾街的平均預測是進一步上漲約10%。家庭也看漲：預計股價上漲的美國人比例達到幾十年來的最高水準。
The exuberance is jarring for two reasons. First, a majority of economists expect president-elect Donald Trump’s “Maganomics” agenda to have a negative impact on America’s economic growth, according to the Financial Times’ annual poll. Second, US asset valuations are already pretty lofty. Excluding the peak of the dotcom bubble, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios for stocks are near their most expensive in over a century. Optimism over artificial intelligence is largely behind the surge. So can US equities really sustain their bull run in 2025?
這種繁榮令人不安有兩個原因。首先，根據英國《金融時報》的年度民意調查，大多數經濟學家預計當選總統唐納•川普的「Maga經濟學」議程將對美國經濟成長產生負面影響。其次，美國的資產估值已經相當高了。排除網路泡沫的高峯期，經週期性調整的股票市盈率接近一個多世紀以來的最高水準。對人工智慧的樂觀情緒在很大程度上推動了股市的飆升。那麼，美國股市是否真能在2025年持續走強？
It is possible. For starters, though economic growth and stock market performance are related, they do not always neatly align. Vibes matter. American equities jumped following the November election. That partly reflects a belief that a business-friendly Trump administration would not put the market rally at risk. Next, even if economic activity weakens this year, investors still want exposure to AI, given faith in its transformative potential. If both the Trump and tech optimism pan out, then stocks could keep rising.
這是可能的。首先，儘管經濟成長和股市表現相關，但它們並不總是完全一致。市場情緒很重要。美國股市在11月選舉後大幅上漲，這部分反映了人們相信一個對商業友好的川普政府不會讓市場上漲面臨風險。其次，即使今年經濟活動減弱，投資者仍然希望投資於人工智慧領域，因爲他們相信其變革潛力。如果川普和科技樂觀情緒都實現，那麼股市可能會繼續上漲。
Economists’ forecasts also appear to be placing more emphasis on the cost-raising and inflationary effects of Trump’s tariff agenda, relative to his plan to cut red-tape and taxes, which would support companies’ margins. If, however, the president-elect’s zeal for import levies turns out to be more rhetoric than reality, then the economic backdrop could support financial markets. The US Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates further and faster (albeit depending on how much fiscal policy is loosened).
經濟學家的預測似乎也更加強調川普關稅議程的成本上升和通膨影響，而不是他削減繁文縟節和稅收的計劃，這將支援公司的利潤率。然而，如果當選總統對進口關稅的熱情更多地是誇誇其談而非現實，那麼經濟背景有望支援金融市場。美聯準可能能夠進一步更快地降息（儘管這取決於財政政策的放鬆程度）。
But how can investors have any conviction about what Trump will actually do? On Monday, markets see-sawed after the president-elect rebutted an earlier news report that claimed he would water down his tariff plans. He has a tendency to shoot from the hip on major policy decisions, via social media. His plans for financial market deregulation could also foment stability risks. Cryptocurrencies have surged since the election. The booming private capital market — which has concerned regulators for its opacity — is hoping to lobby the incoming administration for more widespread investor adoption.
但投資者如何能對川普的實際行動有任何信心呢？週一，在當選總統反駁了早些時候聲稱其將淡化關稅計劃的新聞報導後，市場出現了搖擺。他傾向於透過社群媒體對重大政策決定侃侃而談。他放鬆金融市場管制的計劃也可能引發穩定風險。自大選以來，加密貨幣飆升。蓬勃發展的私人資本市場因其不透明性而受到監管機構的關注，該市場希望遊說即將上任的政府讓投資者更廣泛地採用加密貨幣。
Signs of fragility are also appearing across US markets. Equity and corporate bond valuations are stretched, and investors are taking on more risk. Last year, Wall Street’s appetite for returns sparked the largest frenzy for complex debt products since the run-up to the financial crisis. The concentration of investment in high-returning AI-linked equities is also a concern. The weight of the S&P 500’s top 10 stocks is at a historic high. AI earnings may continue to be strong but just one weaker-than-expected quarterly tech result could still cause an outsized upset.
美國市場也出現了脆弱的跡象。股票和公司債券的估值過高，投資者承擔了更多的風險。去年，華爾街對回報的渴望引發了自金融危機前夕以來最大規模的複雜債務產品投資熱潮。對高回報人工智慧相關股票的集中投資也是令人擔憂的問題。標普500中排名前十的股票權重達到了歷史新高。儘管人工智慧的收益可能會繼續強勁，但只要科技行業有一個季度的業績低於預期，就仍可能引發巨大的市場動盪。
In a speech on Monday, Fed governor Lisa Cook warned that financial markets may be “priced to perfection and, therefore, susceptible to large declines, which could result from bad economic news or a change in investor sentiment”. The release of non-farm payrolls data on Friday will be the first big test for traders this year. It will not be the last. The combination of Trump’s capriciousness and frothy-looking markets is a recipe for volatility. Even investors with a determinedly optimistic outlook should prepare for a bumpy ride.
美聯準理事麗莎•庫克(Lisa Cook)在週一的一次講話中警告說，金融市場可能「定價過於完美，因此容易因不利的經濟訊息或投資者情緒的變化而出現大幅下跌」。週五公佈的非農就業數據將是今年對交易者的第一個重大考驗。這不會是最後一次。川普的反覆無常與看似存在泡沫的市場結合在一起，容易引發波動。即使是對前景抱有堅定樂觀態度的投資者，也要做好一路顛簸的準備。