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Hold tight to your free weights — the Ozempic revolution is coming to a gym near you.
緊緊抓住你的啞鈴——奧澤匹克(Ozempic)革命即將來到你附近的健身房。
The runaway success of “GLP-1” weight loss and diabetes drugs, which also include Wegovy and Zepbound, is hard to overstate. Sales are expected to approach $50bn this year, making them the top-selling class of drugs worldwide. That is despite global shortages, high prices and the fact that the drugs are largely available only in injectable form so far. Sales are expected to more than double to $130bn by 2030 and could soar higher if the makers win permission to sell them as a preventive tool.
包括威哥維(Wegovy)和澤普寶(Zepbound)在內的「GLP-1」類減肥和糖尿病藥物取得的巨大成功，簡直難以用言語形容。預計今年的銷售額將接近500億美元，使其成爲全球最暢銷的藥物類別。儘管存在全球供應短缺、價格高昂，以及這些藥物目前大多隻能以注射形式提供的情況，銷售額預計到2030年將翻倍至1300億美元。如果生產商獲得批准，將這些藥物用於預防用途，銷售額可能會進一步飆升。
For pharma groups Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, soon to be joined by others, this is fabulous news. For others, it is likely to be really bad. Diet company WeightWatchers recently changed chief executives as it struggles to adjust, and soft drink, beer and snack company shares have been on a wild ride as investors try to figure out who will be hurt the most when consumers taking the drugs eat healthier food and fewer calories overall.
對於諾和諾德(Novo Nordisk)和禮來(Eli Lilly)等製藥集團來說，這是個好訊息。對於其他公司來說，可能是個壞訊息。減肥公司WeightWatchers最近更換了首席執行長，因爲他們很難調整，而軟飲料、啤酒和零食公司的股票一直在起伏不定，投資者試圖弄清楚，當服用這些藥物的消費者開始喫更健康的食物並減少總體熱量攝入時，誰會受到最大的傷害。
For gyms and health clubs, the impact is going to be huge but complicated for an industry that is still rebuilding after Covid. The pandemic put a quarter of US fitness centres out of business and reshaped commuting and exercise patterns. Weight-loss drugs are likely to supercharge a consumer rush towards strength training equipment that has been gaining force for more than a decade, and many gyms are still ill-prepared.
對於健身房和健身俱樂部來說，影響將是巨大的，但對於這個在新冠疫情後仍在重建的行業來說，情況將變得複雜。疫情導致了美國四分之一的健身中心倒閉，並重塑了通勤和鍛鍊模式。減肥藥物很可能會加速消費者對力量訓練設備的追捧，這種趨勢已經持續了十多年，而許多健身房仍然準備不足。
Ten years ago, most health club floors were seas of treadmills, elliptical machines and stationary bikes, with fixed weight machines along the edges along with a free weight area geared towards power lifting, mostly by men. But the pandemic and concurrent rise of apps and YouTube videos that gave people access to personalised fitness routines has made that configuration all but obsolete.
十年前，大多數健身俱樂部的地板上都是跑步機、橢圓機和固定自行車，邊緣還有固定重量的器械，以及一個主要面向男性的自由重量區域。但是，疫情和同時興起的程式和YouTube影片使得這種配置幾乎過時了。
Customers still use treadmills but both sexes now seek out a wider range of strength training equipment, including barbells, dumbbells, medicine balls and the like. Clubs, seeking to boost membership, have also leaned into the social aspects of in-person fitness, from group classes and personal trainers to cafés and hang-out areas.
顧客們仍然使用跑步機，但現在男女顧客都在尋求更廣泛的力量訓練設備，包括槓鈴、啞鈴、藥球等。爲了增加會員數量，健身俱樂部還加強了面對面健身的社交方面，從團體課程和私人教練到咖啡廳和休息區。
Gyms are pushing their stair climbers and fixed weight machines to the periphery and replacing them with open space for body-sculpting classes, free weights and individual training sessions.
健身房正在將爬樓梯機和固定重量器械推向邊緣，取而代之的是用於塑身課程、自由重量和個人訓練的開放空間。
“We’re seeing a greater demand for space for strength,” Colleen Keating, CEO of Planet Fitness, one of the largest listed gym groups, told analysts in August. Even Peloton, famous for its cardio-intensive bikes, is testing an app focused on strength training.
「我們看到對於力量訓練的需求越來越大，」最大的上市健身集團之一行星健身(Planet Fitness)的首席執行長科琳•基廷(Colleen Keating)在8月份告訴分析師們。就連以有氧訓練自行車而聞名的派樂騰(Peloton)也在測試一款專注於力量訓練的程式。
The shift takes time and money. The now less-popular cardio machines are often sold on multiyear leases, while strength training equipment generally requires an upfront investment. The delay is leading to uneven usage and customer complaints at clubs that have not made the shift.
這種轉變需要時間和金錢。現在不太受歡迎的有氧運動器械通常以多年租賃的方式出售，而力量訓練設備通常需要前期投資。這種延遲導致了使用率的不均衡，並引起了尚未做出轉變的俱樂部的顧客投訴。
Weight-loss drugs will exacerbate the pressure. As the drugs gain acceptance, fewer people are likely to rely on exercise as their primary weight loss tool and the drugs’ side effects, nausea and intestinal distress, can make high-impact cardio activities uncomfortable.
減肥藥物會加劇壓力。隨著這些藥物被越來越多的人接受，依賴運動作爲主要減肥手段的人可能會越來越少，而這些藥物的副作用，如噁心和腸道不適，可能會使高強度的有氧運動變得不舒服。
However, GLP-1 users still need the gym. Studies suggest that the drugs cause significant muscle loss along with fat, leading to problems with balance and mobility as well as saggy skin sometimes dubbed “Ozempic butt”.
然而，GLP-1使用者仍然需要去健身房。研究表明，這些藥物會導致肌肉和脂肪大量流失，從而引發平衡和行動能力問題，有時還會出現被稱爲「奧澤匹克臀部」的皮膚鬆弛現象。
Strength training seems to be the answer not just for GLP-1 users but everyone else. A growing body of medical literature suggests strength training cuts mortality, particularly for women, while also helping to prevent osteoporosis and relieving the symptoms of depression.
力量訓練似乎不僅對GLP-1使用者有效，對所有人都是如此。越來越多的醫學文獻表明，力量訓練可以降低死亡率，尤其是對女性而言，同時還有助於預防骨質疏鬆症和緩解抑鬱症狀。
“It’s gone from being health and fitness to health and wellness, which is a lot more holistic” says Eleanor Scott, a partner on PwC’s leisure strategy team.
普華永道(PwC)休閒戰略團隊的合夥人埃莉諾•斯科特表示：「健康和健身已經發展爲更加全面的健康和福祉。」
Foot traffic to popular US gym chains Crunch Fitness and EoS Fitness is up by double-digits year on year, according to data provider Plaicer.ai. Planet Fitness has added 2.7mn members since the start of 2023 and improved its profit margins.
根據數據提供商Plaicer.ai的數據，美國知名健身連鎖店Crunch Fitness和EoS Fitness的客流量同比成長了兩位數。自2023年初以來，行星健身(Planet Fitness)已經增加了270萬會員，並提高了利潤率。
For all of them, the combination of strength training with prevention creates a chance to win, or win back, older customers still wary of gyms post-Covid. Although 80 per cent of baby boomers participate in fitness activities, just 42 per cent belong to a gym, compared to nearly three-quarters of active Gen Zers and millennials, according to ABC Fitness. But growth will not follow if newcomers end up fighting the regulars for access to the dumbbells.
對於所有這些人來說，力量訓練與預防的結合創造了一個機會，可以贏得或重新贏回在新冠疫情後仍對健身房持謹慎態度的老年顧客。根據ABC Fitness的數據，儘管80%的嬰兒潮一代參與健身活動，但只有42%的人是健身房會員，而在活躍的Z世代(Gen Zers)和千禧一代中，這一比例接近四分之三。但是，如果新來者最終與老會員爭奪啞鈴的使用權，健身房的成長就無法實現。