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The writer is the former UK ambassador to Lebanon and foreign policy adviser to three prime ministers. His latest novel is ‘The Assassin’
本文作者是前英國駐黎巴嫩大使，並曾擔任三位英國首相的外交政策顧問。他的最新小說是《刺客》(The Assassin)。
Civilians across the Middle East are braced once again against the increasing possibility of a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hizbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. After the devastation in Gaza, they anxiously watch the reckless high-stakes poker of hardliners who want to keep the region on the brink of war in order to keep themselves in power.
中東各地的平民再次做好準備，以應對以色列與伊朗支援的激進組織黎巴嫩真主黨(Hizbollah)之間爆發全面衝突的可能性越來越大。在加沙遭受破壞之後，他們焦慮地注視著那些想要將該地區保持在戰爭邊緣以保持自己權力的強硬派人物的魯莽高風險的撲克遊戲。
As every intelligence service is privately acknowledging, turning pagers and radios into lethal explosives was an audacious piece of tradecraft from Mossad, Israel’s spy agency. It hit Hizbollah’s command chain, communications and confidence. It is one of those moments in the Middle East that resonates beyond the immediate: it will be spoken about in hushed tones for years, perhaps decades. Social media makes the psychological impact even greater. Hizbollah is in shock, and seething. Its rank and file feel insecure.
正如每個情報機構私下承認的那樣，將尋呼機和無線電變成致命炸彈是以色列間諜機構摩薩德(Mossad)的一項大膽技藝。它打擊了黎巴嫩真主黨的指揮鏈、通訊和信心。這是中東地區那些超越當下的時刻之一：它將在未來的幾年甚至幾十年中以低聲談論的方式被提及。社群媒體使心理影響更加巨大。黎巴嫩真主黨感到震驚和憤怒。它的普通成員感到不安。
The key question on the Hizbollah side is whether it absorbs this humiliating blow or hits back. It is probably a case of when, not if, it chooses to do so, alongside its threats of revenge for the assassinations of its leadership.
黎巴嫩真主黨方面的關鍵問題是它是選擇承受這一羞辱性打擊還是進行反擊。很可能是一個「何時」而不是「是否」的問題，伴隨著對其領導層遇刺的報復威脅。
The key question on the Israeli side is whether this was a prelude to a serious land offensive, or just a psychological operation to degrade Hizbollah. I hear both explanations from the Israeli military, many of whom think it is only a question of when, not if, they launch a land invasion aimed at removing Hizbollah from the south of Lebanon and establishing some mirage of a “buffer zone”.
以色列方面的關鍵問題是，這究竟是一次大規模陸地進攻的前奏，還是一次削弱黎巴嫩真主黨的心理戰。我從以色列軍方聽到了這兩種解釋，他們中的許多人認爲這只是何時而非是否發動陸地進攻的問題，目的是將黎巴嫩真主黨趕出黎巴嫩南部，並建立某種海市蜃樓般的「緩衝區」。
Faced with this moment of peril, the international community must focus on two urgent challenges.
面對這一危機時刻，國際社會必須集中精力應對兩個緊迫的挑戰。
First, civilian protection. The reality is that hundreds of thousands of civilians — in Lebanon and Israel — are on the brink of a devastating escalation of this conflict if the hardliners get their way. Many are already displaced, injured and killed. They must be our central concern.
首先，保護平民。現實情況是，如果強硬派得逞，黎巴嫩和以色列的數十萬平民正處於這場衝突毀滅性升級的邊緣。許多人已經流離失所、受傷和喪生。他們必須成爲我們的核心關切。
Second, upholding international law, including legal constraints on the conduct of war. As we have seen with cyber and lethal autonomous weapons, the speed of technological change means that the systems designed to contain the ingenuity of humans to find new ways to kill each other struggle to keep up. But the basic rules are not complicated, whether the weapon is a pager or a rocket: don’t kill civilians.
其次，維護國際法，包括對戰爭行爲的法律約束。正如我們在網路和致命自主武器方面所看到的那樣，技術變革的速度意味著，旨在遏制人類尋找新的相互殺戮方式的系統難以跟上。但無論武器是傳呼機還是火箭，基本規則並不複雜：不要殺害平民。
Now, sadly, it appears that neither of those challenges is a major priority for the current leaders in Iran and Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s increasingly hardline government is focused on tactical wins. The Iranian regime is content to let others fight its battles. So we must also focus on preventing disastrous escalation.
現在，令人遺憾的是，這些挑戰似乎都不是伊朗和以色列現任領導人的主要優先事項。本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)總理日益強硬的政府專注於戰術勝利。伊朗政權滿足於讓其他國家打自己的仗。因此，我們還必須集中精力防止災難性的升級。
There is space for diplomacy. It can build the off-ramps for both sides, for when leaders emerge with the wisdom to take them. UK foreign secretary David Lammy and others are working the phones to regional leaders. Wise voices and cool heads can prevail. The challenge is that both Israel and Lebanon are in political crisis — in Beirut, there is a caretaker government and no president, while in Israel, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is fracturing.
有外交的空間。它可以爲雙方建立出口，以備領導者們有智慧時使用。英國外交大臣戴維•拉米(David Lammy)和其他人正在與地區領導人通話。明智的聲音和冷靜的頭腦可以佔上風。挑戰在於以色列和黎巴嫩都處於政治危機中——在貝魯特，有一個看守政府，沒有總統；而在以色列，內塔尼亞胡的極右翼聯盟正在分裂。
International mediation on Israel and Lebanon needs to deal not only with the short-term cessation of hostilities, but land-border demarcation, a permanent peace (not just a ceasefire) and the return of state authority to south Lebanon. The Lebanese army has to be supported to provide security on the border, as we have helped it to do on the border with Syria.
國際社會對以色列和黎巴嫩的調解不僅需要處理短期停火問題，還需要解決陸地邊界劃定、實現永久和平（不僅僅是停火）以及恢復黎巴嫩南部的國家權力。我們必須支援黎巴嫩軍隊在邊境提供安全保障，就像我們在敘利亞邊境上幫助它一樣。
From my discussions with the Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, and others, it has become clear that ultimately the key to regional de-escalation lies in Gaza ceasefire talks and hostage releases. There are still fundamental differences to overcome — how to manage the Rafah crossing, prisoner releases and the future of the so-called Philadelphi corridor, a narrow strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt. But with the right collective pressure and political will these obstacles are surmountable.
從我與黎巴嫩總理納吉布•米卡提(Najib Mikati)和其他人的討論中可以清楚地看出，最終實現地區緩和的關鍵在於加沙停火談判和人質釋放。仍然存在一些根本性的分歧需要克服，例如如何管理拉法過境點、釋放囚犯以及所謂的菲拉德爾菲走廊的未來，這條走廊是加沙與埃及邊境之間的一條狹窄地帶。但是，只要有適當的集體壓力和政治意願，這些障礙是可以克服的。
Ultimately, the prize remains a big, bold agreement between Israel and the Arab world that includes the normalisation of relations; the creation of the long-promised Palestinian state; and the isolation of the Iranian regime. There is no way out of a wider crisis without hope that both Palestinians and Israelis have the right to security, justice and opportunity in lands they can call their own. This will require genuine partners for peace on both sides of the table.
最終，最大的成果仍將是以色列與阿拉伯世界之間達成一項重大而大膽的協議，其中包括關係正常化、建立長期承諾的巴勒斯坦國，以及孤立伊朗政權。如果沒有希望讓巴勒斯坦人和以色列人都能在他們各自稱之爲家園的土地上享有安全、正義和發展的權利，就無法擺脫更廣泛的危機。這需要雙方談判桌上都有真正的和平夥伴。
So Britain and its allies should take the parameters for a two-state solution to the UN Security Council. Sometimes the immediacy of the danger can create space and urgency for negotiations.
因此，英國及其盟友應將兩國解決方案的參數提交給聯合國安理會(UN Security Council)。有時，迫在眉睫的危險可以爲談判創造空間和緊迫性。
Hamas, Hizbollah and Israeli hardliners want to bury a two-state solution, displace the other side and destroy the prospect of coexistence. The stakes are too high to let them do so.
哈馬斯(Hamas)、黎巴嫩真主黨和以色列強硬派希望埋葬兩國解決方案，驅逐對方並摧毀共存的前景。賭注太高，不能讓他們這樣做。