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It is not particularly fashionable to point out when Donald Trump gets something right (whether accidentally or not). But for the record, back in 2021 he was right about crypto. Having two years earlier pointed out that crypto is “not money” and that its value is “based on thin air”, the former president said bitcoin “just seems like a scam”, suggested crypto was “a disaster waiting to happen”, and said “the bitcoins of the world” should be regulated “very, very high” [sic].
指出唐納•川普(Donald Trump)在某些事情上是正確的（無論是偶然還是有意）並不特別時髦。但是，值得記錄的是，早在2021年，他就對加密貨幣的問題是正確的。兩年前，他指出加密貨幣「不是貨幣」，其價值「基於虛無」，這位前總統表示比特幣「似乎只是一個騙局」，暗示加密貨幣是「一場等待發生的災難」，並表示「世界上的比特幣」應該受到「非常非常高」的監管。
That was less than a year before the world of crypto imploded spectacularly. From May 2022 onwards, a series of exchanges, tokens and other crypto projects collapsed in quick succession, wiping out tens of billions of dollars in supposed “value” overnight. Crypto prices and the market for “NFTs” — a type of digital token that is just as worthless as any other but pretends to be otherwise — tanked. Regulators had not only been failing to regulate crypto “very very high”; they had been asleep at the wheel. In December of that year, crypto’s most notorious criminal, the man known as SBF, was arrested on charges of fraud and conspiracy that he would later be given a 25-year prison sentence for.
那是在加密貨幣世界慘敗的不到一年前。從2022年5月開始，一系列的交易所、代幣和其他加密項目相繼崩潰，一夜之間摧毀了數百億美元的所謂「價值」。加密貨幣價格和「非同質化代幣」（一種與其他任何代幣一樣毫無價值但假裝有價值的數字代幣）的市場暴跌。監管機構不僅未能對加密貨幣進行「非常非常高」的監管，而且一直在疏忽職守。當年12月，加密貨幣界最臭名昭著的罪犯SBF因欺詐和陰謀罪被捕，後來被判處25年監禁。
But Trump, alas, is no longer right about crypto. As the market recovered, he suddenly went from “not a fan” to seeming positively enamoured.
但遺憾的是，川普對加密貨幣的看法已經不再正確。隨著市場的復甦，他突然從「不是粉絲」變得似乎非常迷戀。
He vowed last month to stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto and said that he would support the right to self-custody — technical language that sounds very unlike something Trump would have come up with himself. “To the nation’s 50mn crypto holders I say this,” he told a crowd at a libertarian convention. “I will keep [Democratic senator] Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your bitcoin.”
上個月，他發誓要阻止喬•拜登(Joe Biden)粉碎加密貨幣的行動，並表示他將支援自我保管的權利——這聽起來很不像川普自己會說的話。他在一次自由主義者大會上對觀衆說：「對於全國5000萬加密貨幣持有者，我要說：我將讓伊莉薩白•沃倫(Elizabeth Warren)和她的手下遠離你們的比特幣。」
It sounded suspiciously like Trump had been having some deep and meaningfuls with the crypto industry. Indeed, a couple of weeks ago he hosted a group of bitcoin miners and industry executives at his private members club/permanent residence Mar-a-Lago. One of those present, the CEO of BTC Inc, told CNBC that “as an industry we are committed to raising over $100mn and turning out more than 5,000,000 voters for the Trump re-election effort”. You can see why Trump might have found their arguments so persuasive.
聽起來川普似乎與加密貨幣行業進行了一些深入而有意義的交流。事實上，幾周前，他在他的私人會員俱樂部/永久住所海湖莊園接待了一羣比特幣礦工和行業高階主管。其中一位在場的人，BTC Inc的首席執行長告訴CNBC，「作爲一個行業，我們致力於籌集超過1億美元，併爲川普的連任努力爭取超過500萬選民的支援」。你可以理解爲什麼川普可能會對他們的論點如此有說服力。
There is not even any kind of an attempt to hide the influence-buying; quite the opposite in fact. On Tuesday, the incumbent congressman for New York Jamaal Bowman was defeated in the most expensive primary election in the Democratic party’s history. A vocal critic of Israel, who lost to a pro-Israel rival, he had also voted against pro-crypto bills. Afterwards, Tyler Winklevoss — who along with his twin brother Cameron runs the Gemini crypto exchange — gloated on X: “Politicians everywhere need to understand that this is what happens when you pick a fight with the crypto army.”
甚至沒有任何試圖掩蓋影響力購買的行爲；事實上恰恰相反。週二，紐約現任國會議員賈馬爾•鮑曼(Jamaal Bowman)在民主黨歷史上最昂貴的初選中被擊敗。作爲以色列的激烈批評者，他輸給了一個親以色列的對手，他還投票反對支援加密貨幣的法案。之後，與他的雙胞胎兄弟卡梅倫一起經營雙子座(Gemini)加密貨幣交易所的泰勒•溫克爾沃斯(Tyler Winklevoss)在X上洋洋得意地說：「世界各地的政治家們需要明白，當你與加密貨幣軍團對抗時，就會發生這種情況。」
Last week, the Winklevoss twins each gave $1mn to the Trump campaign (a portion of which has since been refunded for exceeding maximum individual contribution rules), calling him the “pro-crypto” choice. They have also donated $4.9mn to a pro-crypto super Pac — an independent fundraising committee that can receive unlimited funds from individuals, companies and other groups — named “Fairshake”. This has already raised more than $177mn, second only to the “Make America Great Again” super Pac, with just over $178mn.
上週，溫克萊沃斯兄弟各自向川普競選團隊捐贈了100萬美元（其中一部分因超過個人最高捐款規定而被退還），稱他爲「支援加密貨幣」的選擇。他們還向一個名爲「Fairshake」的支援加密貨幣的超級政治行動委員會捐贈了490萬美元，這是一個可以接受個人、公司和其他團體無限資金的獨立籌款委員會。該委員會已經籌集了超過1.77億美元，僅次於「讓美國再次偉大」(Make America Great Again)超級政治行動委員會的1.78億美元。
Fairshake was one of the big contributors to Tuesday’s New York primary, spending over $2mn on ads targeting Bowman. Along with the Winklevii, a number of other crypto billionaires and their firms have contributed huge sums to Fairshake, including crypto firm Ripple, which has donated a tidy $45mn; crypto exchange Coinbase, with just over $45mn; and “techno-optimist” Marc Andreessen and business partner Ben Horowitz, who between them and their business have donated almost $70mn.
Fairshake是週二紐約初選的主要捐助者之一，投入超過200萬美元用於針對鮑曼的廣告。除了Winklevii之外，還有其他一些加密貨幣億萬富翁及其公司向Fairshake捐贈了鉅額資金，包括加密貨幣公司Ripple捐贈了整整4500萬美元；加密貨幣交易所Coinbase，捐贈略超4500萬美元；以及「技術樂觀主義者」馬克•安德里森(Marc Andreessen)和他的商業夥伴本•霍洛維茨(Ben Horowitz)，他們和他們的公司共捐贈了近7000萬美元。
According to data compiled by AdImpact, Fairshake and its affiliate pro-crypto super Pacs, “Defend American Jobs” and “Protect Progress”, have already spent more than $37mn on ads in the primaries. Many of the crypto-friendly candidates they back have won their respective House and Senate races.
根據AdImpact、Fairshake及其附屬的支援加密貨幣的超級政治行動委員會「Defend American Jobs」和「保護進步」(Protect Progress)編制的數據，他們在初選中已經在廣告上花費了超過3700萬美元。他們支援的許多親加密貨幣的候選人贏得了各自的衆議院和參議院選舉。
We should be very concerned indeed about the influence and scale of this rapidly growing crypto lobby. Apart from anything else, the lobbyists do not represent the interests of America’s crypto holders. Regulators are not going after retail investors, but the crypto firms whose founders have made billions by creaming off profits from those retail investors.
我們確實應該非常關注這個迅速成長的加密貨幣遊說團體的影響力和規模。除此之外，這些遊說者並不代表美國加密貨幣持有者的利益。監管機構的目標不是散戶投資者，而是那些從散戶投資者那裏賺取了數十億美元利潤的加密貨幣公司的創辦人。
Their allegiance to politicians looks similarly uneven. And the idea that a group of bitcoin executives can provide Trump with 5mn voters is a farce that even he must be able to see through.
他們對政客的忠誠度看起來同樣參差不齊。而認爲一羣比特幣高階主管能爲川普帶來500萬選民的想法，即使是川普自己也應該能看穿這場鬧劇。