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“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack,” wrote John Bogle, the late founder of investment firm Vanguard. His quip is now conventional wisdom. America’s passively managed mutual funds and exchange traded funds — which mimic overall market indices — ended last year with more assets than active ones, following years of strong inflows.
「不要在乾草堆裏找針。只需買下整個乾草堆。」 先鋒集團創辦人約翰•博格爾(John Bogle)曾寫道。他的俏皮話現在已成爲常識。美國的被動管理型共同基金和交易所交易基金（模仿整體市場指數）在經歷多年的大量資金流入後，去年以更多的資產結束，超過了主動管理型基金。
Though many still tout their stock and bond picking credentials, active fund managers only rarely generate alpha (or market-beating returns). In the long term the index tends to win, substantiating Bogle’s advice. So, why risk money hoping to unearth the next Google or Amazon when it is both safer and more lucrative to be invested in everything?
儘管許多人仍然吹噓他們在股票和債券選擇方面的資質，但主動基金經理很少能夠創造超額收益（或者說超越市場回報）。從長期來看，指數往往獲勝，證實了博格爾的建議。那麼，爲什麼要冒著風險去尋找下一個谷歌(Google)或亞馬遜(Amazon)，當投資於一切都更安全且更有利可圖呢？
That is the question active fund managers fear too many investors are now asking themselves. With the expansion of mutual index and ETF products — covering an array of assets and geographies — shifting cash into diversified trackers is simple. Investment apps allow it to be done with the flick of a finger. For households seeking to earn more from their savings, the growth of these low-cost investment vehicles is an unalloyed good.
這也是主動基金經理們擔心現在有太多投資者在問自己的問題。隨著共同指數和交易所交易基金(ETF)產品的擴大，涵蓋了各種資產和地理區域，將資金轉移到多元化的跟蹤器中變得簡單。投資程式使得這一切可以透過輕輕一點手指來完成。對於希望從儲蓄中獲得更多收益的家庭來說，這些低成本投資工具的成長是一件純粹的好事。
Seeking out star or dud stocks is a costlier, more research-intensive exercise, and necessitates a higher fee-based business model. Poor long-term performance and the allure of cheaper passive strategies — which account for 40 per cent of the $45tn worldwide fund assets tracked by Morningstar, up from 14 per cent in 2008 — have eroded active managers’ inflows. Many are cutting costs and restructuring. In its annual results this week, Edinburgh-based Abrdn committed to axing 500 jobs amid large outflows.
尋找明星股票或失敗股票是一項更昂貴、更需要研究的工作，需要更高的基於費用的商業模式。長期表現不佳和更便宜的被動策略的吸引力——這些策略佔據了晨星追蹤的全球45兆美元資金的40%，而2008年僅佔14%——已經侵蝕了主動管理者的資金流入。許多人正在削減成本和進行重組。總部位於愛丁堡的Abrdn(Edinburgh-based Abrdn)在本週的年度業績中承諾裁員500人，因爲資金大量流出。
The industry and some economists worry that the continued flow of money into buy and hold funds could harm financial markets. Beyond a certain threshold, they argue, a lack of active traders engaged in weeding out over- or underpriced companies could lead to a greater misallocation of investors’ cash.
行業和一些經濟學家擔心，持續流入買入並持有基金的資金可能會對金融市場造成傷害。他們認爲，在某個閾值之後，缺乏積極交易者來清理過高或過低定價的公司，可能會導致投資者資金更大的錯誤配置。
For now this is just a theoretical concern. In practice, active managers still dominate the global industry. Finding alpha may be hard, particularly when markets are dominated by a few stocks, but opportunities have not suddenly disappeared. And big institutional investors, such as pension funds, still want to put their cash piles to work. Indeed, there remains plenty of interest in market-beating trades. For measure, hedge funds — which deploy higher-risk active strategies for accredited investors — currently outnumber Burger King outlets across the globe.
目前這只是一個理論上的擔憂。實際上，主動管理者仍然主導著全球行業。尋找Alpha可能很困難，特別是當市場被少數股票主導時，但機會並沒有突然消失。而且，像養老基金這樣的大型機構投資者仍然希望將他們的現金儲備投入使用。事實上，對於能夠在市場上獲得超額收益的交易仍然存在很大的興趣。以對沖基金爲例，它們爲合格投資者提供高風險主動策略，目前全球數量超過了漢堡王(Burger King)門店。
This is a cut-throat industry. Active funds are competing with hard-to-beat passive strategies, and they are engaged in a zero-sum game with other active players. For each punt, there is a loser taking the other side of the bet. According to Morningstar, in the year to June 2023, 27 per cent of actively managed global large-cap equity funds beat the equivalent passive fund. Over a 15-year timeframe, only 3 per cent have. Active traders can hardly blame investors for switching to index strategies. To survive, they must prove they can actually make money.
這是一個競爭激烈的行業。主動基金正在與難以擊敗的被動策略競爭，並且他們與其他主動參與者進行零和遊戲。對於每一次投注，都有一個輸家承擔著賭注的另一方。根據晨星的數據，在2023年6月的一年中，27%的全球大型主動管理股票基金超過了相應的被動基金。在15年的時間範圍內，只有3%的基金能夠做到這一點。主動交易者幾乎不能責怪投資者轉向指數策略。爲了生存，他們必須證明他們實際上能夠賺錢。
Slashing fees, by cutting business costs, is one option to boost the odds of making market-beating returns. Some funds have also found greater chances of beating benchmarks in bond markets and more niche corners of the stock market. Others, like Citadel or DE Shaw, have hired the brightest quant minds or tried deploying tech — from AI to high-frequency trading — to find alpha. Today’s economic uncertainty and the potential for higher-for-longer interest rates should create the volatility that hawk-eyed traders can thrive on.
透過削減業務成本來降低費用是提高市場超額回報機會的一種選擇。一些基金在債券市場和股票市場的更爲專業領域中也發現了超越基準的更大機會。像城堡(Citadel)或德邵集團(DE Shaw)這樣的公司則聘請了最優秀的量化分析師，或嘗試運用從人工智慧到高頻交易的技術來尋找Alpha。如今的經濟不確定性和長期較高的利率可能會帶來波動性，這將使眼光敏銳的交易員能夠蓬勃發展。
Yet investors are unlikely to diverge from Bogle’s safe and sound advice without a good reason. That means if the stock pickers are to survive and thrive, they will have to work even harder to offer them one.
然而，投資者不太可能在沒有充分理由的情況下偏離博格爾的安全可靠建議。這意味著如果股票選擇者想要生存和繁榮，他們將不得不更加努力地爲投資者提供一個理由。