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Federal Reserve officials were wary of cutting interest rates too quickly this year, according to a record of their last meeting in January, as they remained “highly attentive” to the risk of resurgent inflation.
根據美聯準1月最近一次會議的記錄，美聯準官員對今年過快降息持謹慎態度，他們仍「高度關注」通膨回升的風險。
While rate-setters were content with progress on reducing inflation and meeting the Fed’s goal of full employment, the minutes confirmed their view that it was too soon to consider cutting rates from their 23-year high of between 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.
雖然利率制定者們對在降低通膨和實現美聯準充分就業目標方面取得的進展感到滿意，但會議紀要證實了他們的觀點，即現在考慮將利率從5.25%至5.5%的23年高點下調還爲時過早。
“Participants noted that the economic outlook was uncertain and that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks,” the record of the meeting, published on Wednesday, said.
週三公佈的會議記錄稱：「與會者指出，經濟前景不明朗，他們仍高度關注通膨風險。」
Market reactions were muted, with US stocks on Wednesday recovering from a brief dip and the two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, quickly reversing a modest rise. Bets on the pace of Fed rate cuts this year were little changed.
市場反應平淡，週三美國股市從短暫下跌中回升，隨利率預期變動的兩年期國債收益率迅速扭轉了小幅上升的趨勢。市場對美聯準今年降息步伐的押注幾乎沒有變化。
The release of the minutes come three weeks after Jay Powell used his post-meeting press conference on January 31 to push back against markets’ expectations that the central bank would begin cutting rates as soon as March — a hawkish stance that sparked a sell-off across US equity markets.
會議紀要發佈三週前，傑伊•鮑爾在1月31日的會後新聞發佈會上反駁了市場對央行最快將於3月開始降息的預期，這一鷹派立場引發了美國股市的拋售。
Powell also confirmed in January that the Federal Open Market Committee would begin discussions on when to start slowing the sale of US government bonds to reduce the size of its balance sheet.
鮑爾還在1月份證實，聯邦公開市場委員會將開始討論何時開始放緩美國政府債券的銷售，以縮小其資產負債表規模。
The Fed has been allowing as much as $60bn worth of Treasuries and $35bn of mortgage-backed securities to roll off its balance sheet under its so-called quantitative tightening programme.
根據所謂的量化緊縮計劃，美聯準一直允許其資產負債表上價值多達600億美元的國債和350億美元的抵押貸款支援證券到期不續。
The Fed bought trillions of dollars in US government debt during the early stages of the pandemic to stave off a market meltdown. But that policy ended in 2022 as inflation soared.
美聯準在疫情初期購買了數萬億美元的美國政府債券，以避免市場崩盤。但隨著通膨飆升，這項政策在2022年結束。
According to the minutes officials discussed “an eventual decision to slow the pace of run-off” — an indication that a slowdown in the pace of QT could still be a way off.
根據會議紀要，官員們討論了「放緩被動縮表步伐的最終決定」——表明放緩量化寬鬆的步伐可能仍需一段時間。
On rate cuts, the minutes were largely in line with the more hawkish stance taken by Powell after last month’s meeting, when he used the news conference to say that while the Fed’s next move would be to reduce rates, officials’ “base case” did not include a cut at the next meeting on March 20.
在降息問題上，會議紀要與鮑爾在上月會議後採取的更爲鷹派的立場基本一致，鮑爾在新聞發佈會上表示，雖然美聯準的下一步行動將是降息，但官員們的「基本情況」並不包括在3月20日的下次會議上降息。
Hotter-than-expected inflation data in recent weeks has also tempered market expectations for as many as six cuts this year. Traders are now banking on four, starting in June. The Fed’s most recent guidance pointed to three cuts this year.
最近幾周比預期更熱的通膨數據也削弱了市場對今年多達六次降息的預期。現在，交易員們預計將有四次減息，從6月份開始。美聯準最新的指引指出今年將降息三次。
Since the Fed’s last meeting, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 3.1 per cent in the year to January, a fall from 3.4 per cent in December — but a smaller improvement in the data than had been expected.
自美聯準上次會議以來，美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)報告稱，在截至1月份的一年中，消費者物價上漲了3.1%，低於12月的3.4%——但數據改善幅度小於預期。
The closely watched measure of core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, remained at 3.9 per cent.
備受關注的核心通膨指標（剔除了波動較大的食品和能源部分）仍爲3.9%。
But sharp falls in inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, over the second half of 2023 had boosted hopes of rate cuts this year. Annualised PCE inflation for the past six months is now below the Fed’s goal.
但美聯準偏愛的個人消費支出指數所衡量的通膨率在2023年下半年的大幅下降，提升了今年降息的希望。過去六個月的年化PCE通膨率目前低於美聯準的目標。
However, while rate-setters acknowledged “significant progress” in their quest to drive inflation back towards the goal of 2 per cent, they said it reflected “idiosyncratic” factors.
然而，儘管利率制定者承認在將通膨推回2%的目標方面取得了「重大進展」，但他們表示這反映了「特殊的」因素。
Some officials warned of “downside risks” to the economy this year, including slower consumer spending, which could hit forecasts for gross domestic product growth of 1.4 per cent.
一些官員警告今年的經濟面臨的「下行風險」，包括消費者支出放緩，可能會打擊對國內生產總值成長1.4%的預期。
While American consumers helped make the US the best economic performer in the G7 this year, some committee members flagged that the finances of poorer and middle-income households were becoming stretched.
雖然美國消費者幫助美國成爲七國集團中經濟表現最好的國家，但一些委員會成員指出，貧困和中等收入家庭的財務狀況正變得緊張。
“They pointed to increased usage of credit card revolving balances and buy now, pay later services, as well as increased delinquency rates for some types of consumer loans,” the minutes said.
會議紀要稱：「他們指出，信用卡循環餘額和先買後付服務的使用有所增加，某些類型的消費貸款的拖欠率也有所上升。」