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In 2024, Apple will release its first new hardware product in close to a decade. If demand for the bulky Vision Pro virtual reality headsets is high, the company will be one step closer to proving that its future does not rest on iPhone sales.
2024年，蘋果(Apple)將發佈近十年來的第一款新硬體產品。如果對大塊頭Vision Pro虛擬實境頭盔的需求很高，蘋果公司將離證明其未來不依賴iPhone的銷售又近了一步。
Add a billion paying subscribers and a vast cash pile and its position as the most valuable stock makes sense. In the past five years it has surpassed $1tn, $2tn and $3tn market cap milestones. But its path to becoming the world’s first $4tn company will be steeper.
再加上10億付費用戶和龐大的現金儲備，該公司成爲最有價值股票也就在情理之中了。在過去5年裏，它的市值先後突破了1兆美元、2兆美元和3兆美元的里程碑。但要成爲全球首家市值4兆美元的公司，其道路將更加陡峭。
On the plus side, Apple’s net income margin has remained high thanks to growth in services such as streaming and payments. However, revenue is forecast to drop 3 per cent in fiscal 2023 year as global demand for new smartphones slows. VR headsets are not expected to make up for this decline.
從好的方面看，得益於串流媒體和支付等服務的成長，蘋果的淨收入利潤率一直保持在高位。不過，由於全球對新智慧型手機的需求放緩，預計該公司2023財年的營收將下降3%。而虛擬實境頭顯不太可能彌補這一下降。
There is also a noticeable gap between Apple’s market cap growth and its profit expansion. Apple became a $1tn company in the summer of 2018. Since then its market value has almost tripled. Over the same period, annual net income has grown by 63 per cent.
蘋果的市值成長和利潤擴張之間也存在明顯的差距。蘋果在2018年夏天成爲一家市值1兆美元的公司。從那時起，它的市值幾乎成長了兩倍。同期，其年度淨利潤成長了63%。
The distance between the two does not bode well for the market cap growth spurt necessary for the company to reach $4tn. The stock trades at 27 times forward earnings, according to S&P Capital. At this multiple, next year the stock would trade at about $3tn.
對於該公司達到4兆美元市值所需的市值井噴式成長來說，兩者之間的差距不是好兆頭。標普資本(S&P Capital)的數據顯示，該股的預期市盈率爲27倍。按照這一市盈率計算，該股明年的市值將達到3兆美元左右。
Apple can help matters by using its $166bn cash pile to buy back more shares. Having bought a fifth of its own shares since 2018, Apple stays popular with investors. But high interest rates could damp demand for its shares.
蘋果公司可以利用其1660億美元的現金儲備回購更多股票，從而幫助解決問題。自2018年以來，蘋果已經回購了五分之一的自家股票，因此一直受到投資者的青睞。但高利率可能會抑制對其股票的需求。
Problems in China may also eclipse any financial engineering. As its third-largest market by sales, clearly Chinese consumers value the Apple brand. But some government agencies have banned the use of its devices. Should a wider crackdown follow, that will give domestic rivals a leg-up. The sales hit would not only put a $4tn valuation out of reach, it could also knock Apple off its top rank in the US stock market.
中國的問題也可能使任何金融工程黯然失色。作爲蘋果銷售額第三大的市場，中國消費者顯然很看重蘋果品牌。但一些政府機構已經禁止使用該公司的設備。如果更大範圍的打擊隨之而來，這將給國內的競爭對手提供幫助。銷售受到打擊不僅會使4兆美元的估值遙不可及，還可能把蘋果從美國股市的頭把交椅上拉下來。
Listen to Lex deputy editor Elaine Moore talk to creators, companies and critics about the next era of social media in the FT’s new Tech Tonic podcast series.
