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Investors and currency speculators have boosted bets on the pound as expectations grow that the Bank of England will be slower than other central banks to cut interest rates.
投資者和外匯投機者加大了對英鎊的押注，因市場愈發預期英國央行(Bank of England)降息的速度將慢於其他央行。
As markets brace for central banks’ final rate decisions of the year this week, overseas investors have been scooping up sterling at the fastest clip since the summer while price pressures remain higher in the UK than elsewhere.
在市場爲本週各國央行的年度最終利率決定做準備之際，海外投資者正以夏季以來最快的速度買入英鎊，而英國的價格壓力仍高於其他地區。
Data from Citigroup, which trades 130 currencies with a presence in more than 60 countries, showed that asset managers had ramped up sterling purchases since the start of November, a move that analysts said was partly a reflection of expectations that the BoE would be forced to keep interest rates high well into next year.
花旗集團(Citigroup)的數據顯示，自11月初以來，資產管理公司增加了對英鎊的購買。花旗集團從事130種貨幣的交易，業務遍佈60多個國家。分析師表示，此舉在一定程度上反映了市場預期，即英國央行將被迫在明年很長一段時間內維持高利率。
Markets are now pricing in three or four 0.25 percentage point rate cuts for the BoE next year, compared with four or five cuts for the Federal Reserve and five or six cuts for the European Central Bank over 2024.
市場目前預計，英國央行明年將降息3到4次，每次0.25個百分點，而美聯準(Fed)在2024年將降息4到5次，歐洲央行(European Central Bank)將降息5到6次。
Purchases of sterling by fund managers, as a percentage of Citigroup’s daily activity in the pound, has risen from 22 per cent to nearly 50 per cent in the last six weeks.
過去6周，基金經理購買的英鎊佔花旗集團每日英鎊交易的比例，已從22%升至近50%。
“After a period of neutral to slightly net negative flows our global real money clients have become net sterling buyers again,” said Sam Hewson, head of FX sales at Citigroup, adding that “sterling buying flows over the past month were [the] biggest since July 2023”.
花旗集團外匯銷售主管薩姆•休森(Sam Hewson)表示：「在經歷了一段中性至略微淨負值的時期後，我們的全球實體貨幣客戶已再次成爲英鎊淨買家。」他補充稱，「過去一個月的英鎊買入流量是自2023年7月以來最大的」。
Other banks have seen a similar trend. John Velis, foreign exchange and macro strategist at BNY Mellon, which is custodian to $45tn of assets, said overseas holdings of sterling have returned to “close to normal” long-term averages having been “meaningfully underweight for most of the year until just a few weeks ago”.
其他銀行也出現了類似的趨勢。託管著45兆美元資產的紐約梅隆銀行(BNY Mellon)外匯和宏觀策略師約翰•韋利斯(John Velis)表示，海外持有的英鎊已恢復到「接近正常」的長期平均水準，「在今年大部分時間裏，直到幾周前，英鎊的權重還一直明顯低於正常水準」。
He said a reduction of hedging against sterling assets from overseas investors was in part because the UK will lag other countries in cutting rates. “This means that the cost of hedging sterling exposures based on forward rates will become more expensive,” he said.
他表示，海外投資者之所以減少對英鎊資產的對沖，部分原因是英國在降息方面將滯後於其他國家。他表示：「這意味著，基於遠期利率的英鎊風險敞口對沖成本將變得更貴。」
Support for sterling comes as the pound has been the second best performing currency in the G10 this year. The UK avoided a widely predicted recession but ramped up interest rates to 5.25 per cent in an attempt to tame Britain’s outsize inflation problem.
英鎊得到支撐之際，其已成爲今年10國集團(G10)中表現第二好的貨幣。英國避免了人們普遍預測的經濟衰退，但將利率上調至5.25%，試圖遏制英國嚴重的通膨問題。
Analysts say the pound has been boosted by the BoE’s insistence its battle to fight inflation is not yet won, despite signs in the labour market on Tuesday that the impact of higher interest rates is starting to feed through.
分析師表示，儘管週二勞動力市場有跡象顯示加息的影響正開始顯現，但英國央行堅稱其抗擊通膨的戰鬥尚未取得勝利，這提振了英鎊。
Andrew Bailey, BoE governor, warned markets in November that they were underestimating how persistent inflation would prove.
英國央行行長安德魯•貝利(Andrew Bailey) 11月警告市場，市場低估了通膨的持續程度。
Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street, said sterling purchases were not only driven by expectations that the Fed would more aggressively cut its rates, weakening the attractiveness of the dollar.
道富銀行(State Street)宏觀策略主管邁克爾•梅特卡夫(Michael Metcalfe)表示，投資者購買英鎊不僅僅是受美聯準將更積極地降息、從而削弱美元吸引力的預期所驅動。
The bank had also seen notable purchases of sterling against the euro “which suggests this is a more broad based reassessment of the pound rather than being a product of changes in the US dollar and Fed views,” he said.
他表示，該銀行還發現英鎊兌歐元出現了明顯買盤，「這表明，這是對英鎊進行更廣泛的重新評估，而不是美元和美聯準觀點變化的產物」。
State Street’s data showed that since November asset managers had been buying sterling at the fastest pace for seven months, but still remained “the biggest outright ‘underweight’ position asset managers hold across the 33-currenices we track”.
道富銀行的數據顯示，自11月以來，資產管理公司一直在以7個月來最快的速度買入英鎊，但仍是「資產管理公司在我們追蹤的33種貨幣中持有最大『減持』頭寸」。
Speculative investors, such as hedge funds, have also turned positive on sterling, according to the latest weekly data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US derivatives regulator. So-called leveraged non-commercial funds held more than 11,600 net long positions for the week to 5 December, turning bullish for the first time since late September.
根據美國衍生品監管機構美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)的最新每週數據，對沖基金等投機投資者也開始看好英鎊。在截至12月5日的當周，所謂的槓桿非商業基金持有逾1.16萬個淨多頭頭寸，自9月底以來首次轉爲看漲。
Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast that sterling will be $1.29 at the end of next year, an increase from its current level of $1.25.
接受彭博(Bloomberg)調查的經濟學家預測，到明年年底，英鎊兌美元匯率將從目前的1英鎊兌1.25美元升至1.29美元。
On Friday, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for sterling, predicting it will trade at $1.30 in six months time, up from a previous prediction of $1.20.
上週五，高盛(Goldman Sachs)上調了對英鎊的預測，預計6個月後英鎊兌美元匯率將升至1英鎊兌1.30美元，高於先前預測的1.20美元。
“At least in theory, recent market developments should be very positive for sterling,” said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange at Goldman Sachs.
高盛全球外匯主管卡馬克什亞•特里維迪(Kamakshya Trivedi)表示：「至少在理論上，最近的市場發展應該對英鎊非常有利。」
“The market has moved towards pricing a soft landing that also incorporates some rate relief, which should be good for cyclical and rates-sensitive currencies like sterling,” he said, adding that a quicker move to rate cuts elsewhere will make the BoE “less of a dovish outlier”.
他表示：「市場已經開始消化軟著陸，軟著陸還包括一些利率減免，這對英鎊等週期性和利率敏感的貨幣應該是有利的。」他補充稱，其他地方的更快降息將使英國央行「不那麼像鴿派的異類」。
The central bank came under sharp criticism earlier this year for not acting strongly enough in response to price pressures, even after the UK’s headline inflation rate peaked at more than 11 per cent last year.
今年早些時候，英國央行因在應對價格壓力方面行動不夠有力而受到尖銳批評，即便是在去年英國總體通膨率達到逾11%的峯值之後。
Goldman predicts the euro will weaken to £0.82 in the next six months from a current level of £0.86.
高盛預計，歐元兌美元匯率將在未來6個月內從目前的1歐元兌0.86英鎊跌至0.82英鎊。
